Economy

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normalthings
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Re: Economy

Post by normalthings »

earthling wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:53 am Dec 2020 BLS employment data for KC metro. Down only 2.8% over a year now, much better than US average. Big improvement in Pro Services. Leisure/Hospitality still struggling but better than US avg.

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https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm
Previous data got revised by alot
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

^The Jan data is always the most accurate as it's based on W2's, etc. and the other months are based on estimates. I've been following BLS data for 20 years and have not seen this much backtrack correction for some categories, though metro totals aren't significantly off so wonder if they also corrected previous year given odd % changes. Construction data way off, I thought that seemed high late last year.

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https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

Here's the 10 year comparison of overall employment up to Jan 2021 with revisions.

National - Hovering around 2017 level. Many of the temp lost jobs have returned but continuing unemployment claims each week now offsetting any job returns.
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KC - Now showing worse than US avg, down to 2016 level after revision.
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STL - down to 2014/15 level.
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Re: Economy

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So some interesting KC jobs data from BLS that should be taken with grain of salt given they've made significant revisions past few months.

BLS uses two types of data collection. One is from perspective of labor/work force and another from perspective of jobs reported by employers. When you see unemployment rate data, that's based on the former (reported by workers and those seeking a job). When you see industry data, that's based on latter (reported by employers).

For March, BLS labor force data reported by workers and those seeking jobs claims that KC's labor force is way up, as if COVID didn't happen, which significantly outpaces US that still shows labor force much lower than before COVID hit. Indy and Columbus also show much better than avg labor force growth as well.

KC March 2021 Labor Force well above last March, growing at pace as if COVID didn't happen...
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US March 2021 Labor Force still not caught up to last March...
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KC March 2021 employment as reported by employees/workers, including self-employed...
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KC March 2021 employment as reported by companies/employers below. The one below is typically lower because the above includes self-employed, farm/day workers and similar labor but above also could include work from anywhere workers who don't show as employed with KC company (below). KC's decent labor growth also might support notion of WFA workers coming to KC that are not employed by a KC company.
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US March 2021 employment as reported by employees/workers, including self-employed. Below March 2016 level...
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Sources:
KC - Upper section is reported by labor force/workers, lower section is reporter by employers (Nonfarm Wage and Salary Employment)...
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm

US data...
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln

Even if BLS data is way off, the Feds, banks/financial institutions and investors make decisions on this data.
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Re: Economy

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KC metro construction starts overall expected to exceed 2020 some but well below 2018 peak. Residential construction of course expected to peak given tight housing. However global construction supply issues and rising costs might delay actual starts (breaking ground)...

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Re: Economy

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KC finished top 20 in US again for full 2020 year in commercial/multifamily construction starts. Second highest in Midwest. BTW, I don't think 2019 included new KCI terminal.

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Re: Economy

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earthling
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Re: Economy

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If the KC labor force growth data is accurate, KC should see an in-migration boost, or at least relatively better than most metros. 2020 migration data should show up soon, though given it's a census year may take longer to release. The work from anywhere thing is getting more traction so could be a factor. The Feds need to track that as another data point.
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Re: Economy

Post by beautyfromashes »

earthling wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:45 am If the KC labor force growth data is accurate, KC should see an in-migration boost, or at least relatively better than most metros. 2020 migration data should show up soon, though given it's a census year may take longer to release. The work from anywhere thing is getting more traction so could be a factor. The Feds need to track that as another data point.
Is there a way to measure wage increase based on this showing of job growth?
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

^Can find income trends here...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/30690
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Re: Economy

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April 2021 Employment Data Out

KC Total Non-farm: 1,071.1. 10.4% increased over April 2020.
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Re: Economy

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^That 10% increase is relative to the largest drop last April.

For data reported by employers, there's still a ways to go to reach last peak, but still better than US avg...
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU2928 ... raphs=true

Data reported by labor force/employees implies KC has already recovered while US avg has not yet. April data for this metric won't be out til next week...
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT29 ... raphs=true
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Re: Economy

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Looking at raw job growth — not just percentage growth — Kansas City still ranked No. 11 in overall tech jobs added in 2020, outpacing much larger cities, she said.

“In 2020, we added 10 times the amount of jobs we did in 2019 in the tech industry in Kansas City,” Lowe said.
https://www.startlandnews.com/2021/06/k ... pecs-2021/

In 2021, STEM jobs still jumping higher in KC metro. This covers most STEM jobs (Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services), many larger markets dropped significantly in this category...
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KC Labor force continues to grow at unusually high pace in April relative to US, indicating many may be moving here more than normal, maybe...
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT29 ... raphs=true
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Re: Economy

Post by flyingember »

I bet those two charts explain a lot of why home prices went up so much in the past year
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Re: Economy

Post by langosta »

Labor force trend isn’t replicated in any of our peer cities
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Re: Economy

Post by normalthings »

Some interesting stats from the Federal Reserve. Much of the housing data came to the FED from realtor.com. Employment and population from US Census and BLS

Jackson County employment peaked in 1990s and has never filled recovered. Surprisingly, the labor force hasn't recovered either

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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LAUCN290950000000005

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Indeed Postings outstanding this week ~25% higher than February 2020.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLCHG28140

KC Metro housing inventory peaked at 7,000 in 2019. Around 2150 today after bottoming at 2,000 earlier in the year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU28140
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Re: Economy

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May jobs data is out as reported by employers/companies. MO side of metro is blowing past KS side in recovery despite MO side being hit harder.

MO side of metro up to May, 99% recovered compared to May 2019...
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KS side of metro up to May, 97% recovered compared to May 2019...
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US is 96% recovered compared to May 2019.
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https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/sm

When looking at jobs reported by employees/labor force, KC was already well past recovery in March as explained several posts back. The large difference may mean "work from anywhere" people are moving to KC showing up in labor force data but not employed locally. May labor force data not released until next week.

Separately, a friend who works for State of MO sponsored job placement says he is seeing many are moving here from W Coast looking for a job, moreso than elsewhere.
Last edited by earthling on Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Economy

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earthling wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:01 am May jobs data is out as reported by employers/companies. MO side of metro is blowing past KS side in recovery despite MO side being hit harder.

MO side of metro up to May, 99% recovered compared to May 2019...
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KS side of metro up to May, 97% recovered compared to May 2019...
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US is 96% recovered compared to May 2019.
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https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/sm

When looking at jobs reported by employees/labor force, KC was already well past recovery in March as explained several posts back. The large difference may mean "work from anywhere" people are moving to KC showing up in labor force data but not employed locally. May labor force data not released until next week.
Something I've never considered. So if someone lives here in KC but works remotely for a company, say in NYC, they're considered part of the NYC workforce and not KC?
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

^No, they would be considered part of KC workforce so shows up in KC labor force data. But they would not show up in jobs reported by local companies. The data above are jobs reported by local companies, so a WFA person doesn't show up in this data. May data that is reported by employees/labor force will come out next week and local WFA people that have a job not based in KC _are_ counted in that data. IE, if they live in KCMO they still have to pay KCMO income tax even though not employed by a local area company, so they are part of local workforce. At least that is how it was explained to me.
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

I just looked at NYC data and the jobs reported by local NYC companies are much higher than jobs reported by local employees (opposite of KC). This would appear to mean that a lot of 'work from anywhere' people have a remote job based in NYC but live elsewhere. KC has a lot more jobs reported by employees/workers than reported by employers/companies, that appears to mean many WFA workers live here with job based somewhere else. Self-employed skews the data too but WFA is likely a factor as well.

The Feds really need to start tracking WFA as a separate new data point as now it appears to be 'a thing' for good.
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