Hotel Overbuilding?

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normalthings
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

Post by normalthings »

earthling wrote: Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:49 am ^Overflow buses along streetcar lines could potentially be arranged for particularly busy events/weekends if not more frequency of streetcars.
Good idea in the near term. I also wonder how much of a lift it would be to use a 5 body train on the existing platforms. If you fit the back 2 doors on the existing platform, you can just convert car parking or unused spaces to sidewalk space. It wouldn’t be level boarding but the front and back doors aren’t level today anyways.

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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

Post by earthling »

KC metro occupancy and forecast according to...
https://www.hvs.com/article/9119-covid- ... ing-market

Will be impressive if KC can maintain over 60% occupancy in a couple years along with the 10K rooms in pipeline.
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earthling
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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Some suburban KC hotels converting to apartments. This might justify the abnormally high 8=9K+ hotel rooms planned for KC. It wouldn't grow net supply as much but repurposing older/undesirable hotel properties helps maintain overall higher % occupancy and raises bar of available stock. Potentially we'll see a net shift towards more hotel rooms from urban core to airport and fewer % representation in rest of burbs over time. Conversion of suburban motels to storage units also common.

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/ ... mp-up.html

edit: BTW, the Newmark report for KC had a lot of duplicated entries for hotels in pipeline. It comes to about 7K rooms or so not 10K that is in pipeline. Still much higher than all markets in Midwest except Chicago.
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

Post by earthling »

CBRE Q2 national hotel report..
http://cbre.vo.llnwd.net/grgservices/se ... 3dca6c312a

KC not on list for either top 10 or bottom 10. Economy/Midscale doing better than before pandemic, Midscale to Luxury not yet returned.
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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The is another top/bottom 10 list from Newmark for national hotel industry in Q1. The one category KC stands out... supply growth.

https://www.ngkf.com/storage-nmrk/uploa ... tom-10.pdf
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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Newmark Q2 hotel report. KC metro Revpar/occupancy improving but a bit behind US in RevPAR "performance index" and a bit below Midwest avg in occupancy. KC occupancy still under 45%, not good. Minneapolis is struggling. Many new hotel rooms still in KC pipeline...

KC metro
https://www.nmrk.com/storage-nmrk/uploa ... s-City.pdf

All of Midwest
https://www.nmrk.com/storage-nmrk/uploa ... eports.pdf
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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Found this in a Nashville hotel report. KC ranks about where it should be with about 36K rooms, more rooms than several larger markets (that likely have less % Interstate travel stays).
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Last edited by earthling on Fri Oct 01, 2021 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
earthling
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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According to this report, KC ranked 5th in % supply growth for Q2/2021 and 2nd for Q1.
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https://www.ngkf.com/storage-nmrk/uploa ... tom-10.pdf
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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Q2 top/bottom 10 Occupancy. Towns with mostly Interstate road travel hotels with best occupancy. Tourist and biz travel cities still below 20% occupancy, according to...
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https://www.ngkf.com/storage-nmrk/uploa ... tom-10.pdf

I think last two posts are city propers, not metro markets. Not sure.
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FangKC
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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I'm surprised Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are lower than Kansas City in the supply of rooms.
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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Might partly be less Interstate hotels but also not exactly same forward momentum as KC. Pittsburgh I70 passes mainly south of metro for long range road travelers. Cincy has many large/small outside metro towns along Interstates that have plenty of hotel/motels - Dayton/Columbus/Louisville also nearby.

But otherwise investors have been hot on KC lately with most hotel rooms in pipeline in Midwest outside Chicago, even more than MSP/Detroit.
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normalthings
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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What hotels do people want to see next in KC? My wish list is a 200 room Ritz and a 300-500 room Grand Hyatt or W Hotel.
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normalthings
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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"Expedia top destinations based on fastest-growing lodging demand on Expedia.com for the weeks of Thanksgiving and Christmas 2021 compared to the same time periods in 2019.
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https://www.expediagroup.com/media/medi ... fault.aspx
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normalthings
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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normalthings wrote: Sat Oct 02, 2021 2:09 pm
"Expedia top destinations based on fastest-growing lodging demand on Expedia.com for the weeks of Thanksgiving and Christmas 2021 compared to the same time periods in 2019.
A comparison on % growth, doesn’t mean a lot in terms of # of visitors.

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https://www.expediagroup.com/media/medi ... fault.aspx
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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normalthings wrote: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:10 am What hotels do people want to see next in KC? My wish list is a 200 room Ritz and a 300-500 room Grand Hyatt or W Hotel.
4 Seasons. Their new locations in Nashville and New Orleans have condos attached.
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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I do wish we could land one that would have condos attached.
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normalthings
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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Hoeffer Welker has a Hyatt Hotel in Kansas City, Missouri on their project list.
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Chris Stritzel
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

Post by Chris Stritzel »

normalthings wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:54 am Hoeffer Welker has a Hyatt Hotel in Kansas City, Missouri on their project list.
Might be the same I shared to the Unbuilt KC thread.
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=20379&p=624314#p624314
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

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The American Hotel and Lodging Association projects that the Kansas City metro’s business travel revenue this year will decline 67.5% ­– a nearly $300 million drop compared with 2019.

“We’ll hopefully reach 2019 occupancy levels by 2025, but it may be 2026 before we get back to that level,” said Kurt Mayo, executive director of the Hotel & Lodging Association of Kansas City.

From January to August, downtown hotels averaged a 35.6% occupancy rate, down 42.6% from 2019, he said. Citywide, the occupancy rate was 47.3%.

A number of conventions canceled, and the meetings that moved forward averaged about 50% of their initial projected size as many adopted a hybrid format of in-person and virtual, Hermiston said. Mayo said: “We’re starting to get some rebooked, but let’s face it — we’re way short of where we were before.”
https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/ ... overy.html

Most downtown hotels need about 60% occupancy to be profitable unless running skeleton crew and/or reducing services. The longer that virtual hybrid conferences continue it might become more difficult to break that trend long term as organizers improve the format and figure out what does/doesn't work. In the near term, downtown KC should probably focus on attracting concert/sports type live events as it could take a while for conferences and biz travel to return to normal if ever. The new normal very well may become hybrid virtual - one person from company sent to conference and the rest are virtual.

Is curious that developers show a great deal more hotels in pipeline for KC, highest in Midwest outside Chicago. Great they have confidence in KC but if KC sees under 60% occupancy for another year+, might start seeing some hotels convert to housing or storage units, especially older less maintained properties. New hotels could still happen, but it might mean some dated hotels re-purpose and net supply doesn't change much. Likely the case in many cities - or even reduction in supply. KC doing better than many others as bad as it looks.
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AlkaliAxel
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Re: Hotel Overbuilding?

Post by AlkaliAxel »

I think people are overrating the virtual future with Covid. Once they have the childrens vaccine and things are normalized, in-person is going to come back. People are too social to make it that virtual.
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