KC metro growth and migration stats

KC topics that don't fit anywhere else.
User avatar
Highlander
Mark Twain Tower
Mark Twain Tower
Posts: 9127
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2004 1:40 pm
Location: Houston

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by Highlander » Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:29 pm

Critical_Mass wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:42 am
The 2018 census population estimates were released today.
Another good year for KC, but not as good as the previous two years which I think were at around 20k and 22k.

MSAs:
Kansas City, MO-KS Metro Area +16,392
Lawrence, KS Metro Area +807
St. Joseph, MO-KS Metro Area -108
Topeka, KS Metro Area -559
St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area -385
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA Metro Area +9,981
Lincoln, NE Metro Area +3,411
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA Metro Area +10,309
Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area +13,196
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN Metro Area +21,980
Columbus, OH Metro Area +24,066
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area +36,521
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO Metro Area +39,436

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-k ... mates.html
Kind of weird that St Louis area has negative growth. I can understand the city proper but don't quite understand why the area is moribund with respect to growth.

I have a lot of family in KC who like it like it is and look very negatively on growth. Even though KC's growth is relatively high for the midwest, the SMSA continues to slip in US rank due to faster growing communities (I believe Austin has now passed KC). While nobody wants KC to become a Dallas, I think it will be difficult to keep certain institutions and businesses if growth cannot keep us in the vicinity of where we are now in national rank. The pro sport teams are especially vulnerable with higher growth cities wanting pro baseball and football teams.

earthling
Oak Tower
Oak Tower
Posts: 5357
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2011 2:27 pm

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:57 pm

Losing Pro Teams might be the most major impact of no longer being a Top 30 metro but there will probably be many other impacts too, like when services rollout something to the top 30 markets, etc. I'm in the camp that no strong university will continue to be a major factor for comparably slower growth for KC. Though slow growth is fine, being out of the Top 30 could become a long term problem.

On STL metro, not first negative growth, 2016 was as well and 2017 not much. They are having much higher domestic outmigration this decade compared to last...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... s%2C_MO-IL

moderne
Bryant Building
Bryant Building
Posts: 4224
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: downtown

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by moderne » Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:49 pm

They still have the CSA metro count rank as 25.

earthling
Oak Tower
Oak Tower
Posts: 5357
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2011 2:27 pm

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:30 pm

Most market studies use MSA and the CSA list doesn't include large markets that don't have a CSA, like Tampa, San Diego, Phoenix, etc. Vegas and Indy could also potentially pass up KC CSA within a few years.

User avatar
Critical_Mass
Colonnade
Colonnade
Posts: 703
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 7:56 pm
Location: Crossroads

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by Critical_Mass » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:12 pm

Will Lawrence metro area ever merge with the KC metro? It's so close with many commuting in both directions. The K-10 corridor in western Lenexa / northern Olathe has seen a lot of development pushing eastward bridging the gap between the two. It's a 15 minute drive from K-10 & K-7 (what feels like the eastern edge of sprawl). It'd give the MSA number a nice bump to no. 28 (until Vegas and Austin retake KC) and we'd have a more major university within the boundaries

earthling
Oak Tower
Oak Tower
Posts: 5357
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2011 2:27 pm

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:24 am

Lawrence/KC clearly have economic ties but apparently L doesn't want to become a part of our MSA. KC metro EcoDev groups should pursue it just to help maintain top 30 status. Maybe St. Joe too. Both are under 60 miles from downtown. Warrenton is about 60 miles from downtown STL, part of STL MSA yet not as economically tied.

KU needs to boost its research profile, especially in STEM areas outside Animal Health. UMKC needs to as well. Now that new airport is coming, transportation is generally improving and downtown has momentum, the new #1 metro focus should be boosting the universities' profiles on both sides of state line. And KCMO's focus needs to be violent crime (and potholes).

kcjak
Penntower
Penntower
Posts: 2142
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 3:02 pm

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by kcjak » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:50 am

Critical_Mass wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:12 pm
Will Lawrence metro area ever merge with the KC metro? It's so close with many commuting in both directions. The K-10 corridor in western Lenexa / northern Olathe has seen a lot of development pushing eastward bridging the gap between the two. It's a 15 minute drive from K-10 & K-7 (what feels like the eastern edge of sprawl). It'd give the MSA number a nice bump to no. 28 (until Vegas and Austin retake KC) and we'd have a more major university within the boundaries
Lawrence opted not to join the KC metro largely because they would be subject to stricter air quality regulations since KC has a greater number of days with air quality that exceeds federal guidelines.

brewcrew1000
Broadway Square
Broadway Square
Posts: 2577
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:10 am
Location: Broadway/Gilham according to google maps

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by brewcrew1000 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:01 am

If KCMO had never annexed the Northland there would have been a real threat of Olathe or Overland Park taking over KCMO as the largest individual city in the metro. I believe that would have been the first major metro to not have its principle city as the largest one in the metro, i can't think of any other places where that would be possible. Even St Louis has a huge population advantage over its 2nd largest city.

Its also kind of crazy that Mesa Arizona is larger than KCMO just looking at city ranks.

User avatar
GRID
City Center Square
City Center Square
Posts: 14419
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 12:20 pm
Contact:

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by GRID » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:38 am

earthling wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:57 pm
Losing Pro Teams might be the most major impact of no longer being a Top 30 metro but there will probably be many other impacts too, like when services rollout something to the top 30 markets, etc. I'm in the camp that no strong university will continue to be a major factor for comparably slower growth for KC. Though slow growth is fine, being out of the Top 30 could become a long term problem.

On STL metro, not first negative growth, 2016 was as well and 2017 not much. They are having much higher domestic outmigration this decade compared to last...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... s%2C_MO-IL
I'm not sure dropping out of the top 30 is a huge problem with KC's existing teams since they are established teams with established fan bases and the regional draw of KC's sports teams is even larger than the CSA. It will likely keep KC from ever getting the NHL or NBA back though. The bigger problem may be the Royals attendance which has been on a very concerning downward trend since they won the world series. I have been a Royals fan my entire life and I have never seen such poor attendance. Not being able to sell out home openers is just crazy (two years in a row just a few years after back to back world series appearances). Even when everybody in the city knew they would lose 100 games, the opener would still draw 42k and be nearly impossible to get tickets to and they would average 18-23k a game. I don't know what happened, but it's like all the bandwagon fans that showed up in 2015 took about half the original fans base with them when they left lol. Attendance is going to really hurt the Royals over the next few years as I don't think anybody at the Royals thought it would drop this far this fast. Plus KC will have stadium issues again soon as the lease gets close to the end. I think losing the Royals could be a real threat in the next 15 years if attendance continues to fall, not because of the KC's falling rank nationally.
earthling wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:24 am
Lawrence/KC clearly have economic ties but apparently L doesn't want to become a part of our MSA. KC metro EcoDev groups should pursue it just to help maintain top 30 status. Maybe St. Joe too. Both are under 60 miles from downtown. Warrenton is about 60 miles from downtown STL, part of STL MSA yet not as economically tied.

KU needs to boost its research profile, especially in STEM areas outside Animal Health. UMKC needs to as well. Now that new airport is coming, transportation is generally improving and downtown has momentum, the new #1 metro focus should be boosting the universities' profiles on both sides of state line. And KCMO's focus needs to be violent crime (and potholes).
The people at Smart KC and the regional economic development people need to convince Lawrence to join in KC's MSA. In the long run that won't even help much though unless KC starting growing a few percentage points faster. There is no reason (other than regional politics) KC shouldn't be growing as fast as other similar midwestern cities (columbus, indy etc). KC is not a rustbelt city.
brewcrew1000 wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:01 am
If KCMO had never annexed the Northland there would have been a real threat of Olathe or Overland Park taking over KCMO as the largest individual city in the metro. I believe that would have been the first major metro to not have its principle city as the largest one in the metro, i can't think of any other places where that would be possible. Even St Louis has a huge population advantage over its 2nd largest city.

Its also kind of crazy that Mesa Arizona is larger than KCMO just looking at city ranks.
KC is a rare city to have so many single suburbs of over 100k. Even though StL City is still the largest city, it's dwarfed by suburban StL County however, there is a solid chance they merge and StL will become one of the largest cities in the country (and KCMO will become by far the most dangerous city in the state statistically.) KCMO will remain on most top 10 crime lists while StL will probably drop off all the lists all together, which should help them rebuild their image.

User avatar
normalthings
Valencia Place
Valencia Place
Posts: 1934
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:52 pm

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by normalthings » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:05 am

GRID wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:38 am
KC is a rare city to have so many single suburbs of over 100k. Even though StL City is still the largest city, it's dwarfed by suburban StL County however, there is a solid chance they merge and StL will become one of the largest cities in the country (and KCMO will become by far the most dangerous city in the state statistically.) KCMO will remain on most top 10 crime lists while StL will probably drop off all the lists all together, which should help them rebuild their image.
Would annexing NKC, maybe Indepence +de-annex north of 152 do much for us?

earthling
Oak Tower
Oak Tower
Posts: 5357
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2011 2:27 pm

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:12 am

GRID wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:38 am
The people at Smart KC and the regional economic development people need to convince Lawrence to join in KC's MSA. In the long run that won't even help much though unless KC starting growing a few percentage points faster. There is no reason (other than regional politics) KC shouldn't be growing as fast as other similar midwestern cities (columbus, indy etc). KC is not a rustbelt city.
Columbus and Indy benefit from the restbelt and Chicago exodus (being closer for those who move away from family for jobs), having higher profile universities and being state capitol helps. KC's isolation has also probably been why KC has never had high growth unlike Denver's isolation that has an outdoor life destination and a progressive reputation.

User avatar
Highlander
Mark Twain Tower
Mark Twain Tower
Posts: 9127
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2004 1:40 pm
Location: Houston

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by Highlander » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:58 pm

normalthings wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:05 am
GRID wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:38 am
KC is a rare city to have so many single suburbs of over 100k. Even though StL City is still the largest city, it's dwarfed by suburban StL County however, there is a solid chance they merge and StL will become one of the largest cities in the country (and KCMO will become by far the most dangerous city in the state statistically.) KCMO will remain on most top 10 crime lists while StL will probably drop off all the lists all together, which should help them rebuild their image.
Would annexing NKC, maybe Indepence +de-annex north of 152 do much for us?
I doubt it. Independence is a relatively poor, high crime suburb itself. At least the western side of it. NKC has a very small population. Grid's point just illustrates the futility of how crime stats are tallied in the US. KC encompasses a large poor population while most of the metro's higher income people in all directions but one live in different suburban municipalities. The northland being the exception but that's a relatively small population still relative to the KC portion of Jackson County. Cities like Houston TX have enormously high crime but they are large enough to have captured a major part of the city's wealth within their boundaries which dilutes the crime rate.

One of my least favorite things about KC is the lack of a wider spread higher income/upper middle class urban community. KC is pretty unique in that aspect compared to similar size cities. It has the Ward Parkway/Brookside and immediate Plaza environs (which are really on the verge of being suburban in nature) but they are small and the tiny enclaves of Hyde Park and Valentine that have a bit of wealth don't really add much in terms of population. KC really needs gentrification on a massive scale to come up to par with other cities but their is little going on in that direction and their is widespread opposition when it does happen (much of it under the erroneous idea that KC lacks affordable housing). In most cities in the US, urban areas have gentrified to the extent that poverty has pushed into the inner ring of burbs. Not that I relish in displacing people but there will be a certain percentage of poor in every metro in the US but the concentration of that demographic in KC really impacts the city in a lot of ways (property and sales tax base, civic contributions - our billionaires live in JoCo and could care less about the travails of the city; these are two ways but there are many more) .

tower
Strip mall
Strip mall
Posts: 288
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:45 am
Location: Midtown

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by tower » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:48 am

A county qualifies as an outlying
county of a CBSA if it meets the
following commuting requirements:
(a) At least 25 percent of the workers
living in the county work in the central
county or counties of the CBSA; or
(b) At least 25 percent of the
employment in the county is accounted
for by workers who reside in the central
county or counties of the CBSA.

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR- ... -15605.pdf

Commuter rail or better express bus service to Lawrence and St. Joe could grow the metro without any new development in between. Not everyone would use it, but there are already people who commute from Lawrence today, so it is definitely possible that we could boost that number of commuters to 25%

alejandro46
Strip mall
Strip mall
Posts: 247
Joined: Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:24 pm
Location: King in the North(Land)

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by alejandro46 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:05 pm

tower wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:48 am

Commuter rail or better express bus service to Lawrence and St. Joe could grow the metro without any new development in between. Not everyone would use it, but there are already people who commute from Lawrence today, so it is definitely possible that we could boost that number of commuters to 25%
Yes, commuter rail has been studied but obviously never funded. Definitely feasible but would need to be substantially subsidized at least at first. Then when train passengers arrive at Union Station they would have to be working somewhere easily available via public transit (i.e. streetcar or an improved bus). Seem to me like we need to improve our inner city public transit then if the federal headwinds blow that direction (unlikely) it would be something looked at. I think a Lawrence-Kansas City would require a $12 per passenger subsidy as of 2002.

http://www.marc.org/Transportation/Plan ... ment6.aspx

http://www.marc.org/Transportation/Plan ... ment1.aspx

earthling
Oak Tower
Oak Tower
Posts: 5357
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2011 2:27 pm

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:16 am

Migration data has been updated on TAMU for 2018.

Can open each link in new tab by right-clicking each link and open in new tab.

KC metro...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... y%2C_MO-KS

KC metro gained about 5K in domestic migration, not quite as good as previous 2 years but better than earlier in decade. International migration just under 2K, the lowest since the 90s (declined on KS side). Birth rate slightly declining as typical elsewhere. Death rate looks to generally/mostly follow the rate of metro total increase.


Jackson County finally hit over 700K though slower growth than last few years.
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... son_County

ClayCo grew by 1.5%...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... lay_County

Platte grew by 1.7% but slowing down...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... tte_County

JoCo grew by just over 1%, leads metro with net domestic inmigration but declining international migration...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... son_County

WyCo slowed down to flat growth...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... tte_County

BTW, here is STL metro...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... s%2C_MO-IL

moderne
Bryant Building
Bryant Building
Posts: 4224
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: downtown

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by moderne » Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:22 pm

KC is no sunbelt growth rate. But at least its not St Louis with some negative years. 50 years ago metro St. Louis had 1,100,000 more than KC. Now its 662,000 larger. If this continues another half century they will be even, but St Louis will still be more important to state since most of its in MO.

earthling
Oak Tower
Oak Tower
Posts: 5357
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2011 2:27 pm

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:57 am

However Indy and Columbus growing faster despite also not being sunbelt. They have advantages as discussed earlier in thread (state capitol, higher profile universities nearby, near Chicago and rustbelt exodus).

Chicago metro is seeing highest levels of domestic outmigration last several years, worse than STL % wise...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... C_IL-IN-WI

dnweava
Strip mall
Strip mall
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2013 7:03 pm

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by dnweava » Wed May 01, 2019 11:06 am

GRID wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:38 am
earthling wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:57 pm
Losing Pro Teams might be the most major impact of no longer being a Top 30 metro but there will probably be many other impacts too, like when services rollout something to the top 30 markets, etc. I'm in the camp that no strong university will continue to be a major factor for comparably slower growth for KC. Though slow growth is fine, being out of the Top 30 could become a long term problem.

On STL metro, not first negative growth, 2016 was as well and 2017 not much. They are having much higher domestic outmigration this decade compared to last...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... s%2C_MO-IL
I'm not sure dropping out of the top 30 is a huge problem with KC's existing teams since they are established teams with established fan bases and the regional draw of KC's sports teams is even larger than the CSA. It will likely keep KC from ever getting the NHL or NBA back though. The bigger problem may be the Royals attendance which has been on a very concerning downward trend since they won the world series. I have been a Royals fan my entire life and I have never seen such poor attendance. Not being able to sell out home openers is just crazy (two years in a row just a few years after back to back world series appearances). Even when everybody in the city knew they would lose 100 games, the opener would still draw 42k and be nearly impossible to get tickets to and they would average 18-23k a game. I don't know what happened, but it's like all the bandwagon fans that showed up in 2015 took about half the original fans base with them when they left lol. Attendance is going to really hurt the Royals over the next few years as I don't think anybody at the Royals thought it would drop this far this fast. Plus KC will have stadium issues again soon as the lease gets close to the end. I think losing the Royals could be a real threat in the next 15 years if attendance continues to fall, not because of the KC's falling rank nationally.
The royals massively raised ticket prices. It's their own damn fault for falling attendance. They could easily lower ticket prices.

Im not a royals fan but i went to at least 1 game every year, until 2015 when they jacked up prices because they could. The dynamic pricing they also added meant the few teams i wanted to see, mostly the stl cardinals, were now premium games that were $40 for the cheapest ticket when i used to go to those games for like $10.

Just looked on stubhub. For this season cheapest tickets are KC @ STL for $9; STL @KC is $35. Literally 4x the cost to watch it in KC....

User avatar
rxlexi
Penntower
Penntower
Posts: 2043
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2003 10:30 pm
Location: City Market

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by rxlexi » Wed May 01, 2019 11:44 am

The dynamic pricing they also added meant the few teams i wanted to see, mostly the stl cardinals, were now premium games that were $40 for the cheapest ticket when i used to go to those games for like $10.

Just looked on stubhub. For this season cheapest tickets are KC @ STL for $9; STL @KC is $35. Literally 4x the cost to watch it in KC....
Off topic, but I have to disagree; it seems to me one place that Royals dynamic pricing really works are series like STL, NYY, etc. Those games still sell out, or close, independent of the Royals record and at the higher prices.

Even more off topic, I think rather than ticket prices dropping relative to a loser team, the team should focus more on being reasonably competitive even while attempting to "rebuild" - a team that stays in contention through the summer is a much bigger positive in every way (ticket sales, fan interest in Royals and baseball in general, folks watching games out at bars, etc.). Don't necessarily have to expect a playoff team every year, but back to back years being out of the race before May is pathetic, even given the economics of baseball, "tanking" etc.

User avatar
Critical_Mass
Colonnade
Colonnade
Posts: 703
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 7:56 pm
Location: Crossroads

Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by Critical_Mass » Wed May 01, 2019 12:23 pm

dnweava wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 11:06 am
The royals massively raised ticket prices. It's their own damn fault for falling attendance. They could easily lower ticket prices.

Im not a royals fan but i went to at least 1 game every year, until 2015 when they jacked up prices because they could. The dynamic pricing they also added meant the few teams i wanted to see, mostly the stl cardinals, were now premium games that were $40 for the cheapest ticket when i used to go to those games for like $10.

Just looked on stubhub. For this season cheapest tickets are KC @ STL for $9; STL @KC is $35. Literally 4x the cost to watch it in KC....
looking at tickets from the official teams' sites i'm seeing STL @ KC nosebleed tickets for $23 and KC @ STL nosebleed tickets for $15.90
Royals and Cards can't control how much the resellers ask.

Post Reply