KCRag Forum

FlippantCitizen wrote: ↑Thu Mar 24, 2022 7:15 pm

phuqueue wrote: ↑Thu Mar 24, 2022 5:48 pm Whoever wins the GOP nom is going to win the general, even if it is Greitens, so personally I would advise against trying to strategically vote for him in the GOP primary

Maybe it's too naive to think Kunce could beat Greitens but Roy Moore in Alabama showed that a bad candidate can go down even in the reddest of states.

See also Kris Kobach vs Laura Kelly.

Scott Sifton, a St. Louis area former State Senator, dropped out of the race and endorsed new entry, and Beer Family Heiress, Trudy Busch Valentine.

Should have guessed the DNC would have something up their sleeve to take down the populist. Tinfoil hat goes on lol.

Chris Stritzel wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:15 pm Scott Sifton, a St. Louis area former State Senator, dropped out of the race and endorsed new entry, and Beer Family Heiress, Trudy Busch Valentine.

So the establishment lines up behind the lady who can finance her own campaign and files at the last minute? Genius!

Would have really liked to see Kunce run in the general with his brand of left populism with a lot of his rhetoric directed towards rural voters. He would almost definitely still lose, especially in a race where he isn't facing Greitens, but Busch-Valentine is guaranteed to lose and this race is no longer interesting to me in the slightest.

^It depends really. 3 months is a long time in the world of politics and with the John Danforth putting $20 million behind John Wood, Trudy Busch putting money into her campaign, and disgruntled Eric Greitens supporters who feel this election was “stolen” from him, it might get interesting. Not saying it gets competitive, but it will get interesting.

Missouri is a lost cause. A total, unmitigated shithole. Eric Schmitt is basically a dorkier, straight version of Josh Hawley and he's going to shellack Valentine. This is going to be one of the least interesting Senate races ever.

We basically have three versions of Republicans running.

GOP strategist Jeff Roe will annihilate Busch-Valentine. She won't win rural voters. I know rural people well, and she won't be able to pull enough of their votes to beat Schmitt. Kunce could have beaten Greitens more easily I think because he has appeal among rural voters. He is a marine veteran and grew up poor. He comes across as a fighter. They will see Busch-Valentine as an elitist millionaire liberal.

I lost interest in this race now that we know the general election matchup is just two giant STL boosters. That's why pragmatically I was rooting for Hartzler, because at least she knows KC exists.

Our best shot for federal/Gubernatorial races going forward lie with Kansas. A realistic hope is that within this decade JoCo will essentially take over KS and start reorienting policy towards our metro. And wince that will come from Dems winning, they'll be alot more open to things like rail, funding, etc.

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:25 pm I lost interest in this race now that we know the general election matchup is just two giant STL boosters. That's why pragmatically I was rooting for Hartzler, because at least she knows KC exists.

Our best shot for federal/Gubernatorial races going forward lie with Kansas. A realistic hope is that within this decade JoCo will essentially take over KS and start reorienting policy towards our metro. And wince that will come from Dems winning, they'll be alot more open to things like rail, funding, etc.

I think there is a grain of truth in that. In the next 10-20 years population growth and urbanization in JoCo, WyCo, Douglas Co, Sedgwick Co, Riley Co combined with depopulating rural areas may deliver a state level policy in Kansas that is more blue. Whether or not that will necessarily go hand in glove with cooperation with KCMO on matters such as rail is a more complicated question.

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:25 pm I lost interest in this race now that we know the general election matchup is just two giant STL boosters. That's why pragmatically I was rooting for Hartzler, because at least she knows KC exists.

Our best shot for federal/Gubernatorial races going forward lie with Kansas. A realistic hope is that within this decade JoCo will essentially take over KS and start reorienting policy towards our metro. And wince that will come from Dems winning, they'll be alot more open to things like rail, funding, etc.

I get what you’re saying here, but JoCo and Kansas will do what’s best for JoCo and Kansas just like how Cook County and Illinois do what’s best for Cook County and Illinois. We might hope that they work with the Missouri side of the metro area to work on getting things that benefit the region, but they continue to live in their own world and will continue to do so. In other words, they’ll continuing acting alone as if the Missouri side doesn’t exist and/or is a farce.

And the way I see it, we don’t need a St. Louis or Kansas City booster representing Missouri. We need a person who represents the entire state and boosts it all. If the cities don’t do well, and the rural areas don’t do well, the state won’t do well and where does that get us? But since it has happened, where has it gotten us? No where good.

Chris Stritzel wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:33 pm I get what you’re saying here, but JoCo and Kansas will do what’s best for JoCo and Kansas just like how Cook County

The problem is that I think Schmitt or Busch are gonna be mostly just focused on STL. And if they have any extra time it’ll be for rurals.

I understand that people rightfully feel burned by Kansas the last several decades.

This in large part is due to it being Republican led.

I’m very confident that the new future wave of JoCo Dems who one day become our Govs & Senators are not gonna be hostile to KCMO. I follow just about every KC region Dem in Kansas- they love Kansas City and want to partner with it. They don’t view it as some hostile area or competitor like GOP does. Many of them tweet out all the time they’d love to see KS partner with KCMO on light rail projects. I’m very optimistic of the things they will do once they become in control of Kansas soon.

Fountains wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:06 am

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:24 pm I understand that people rightfully feel burned by Kansas the last several decades.

This in large part is due to it being Republican led.

I’m very confident that the new future wave of JoCo Dems who one day become our Govs & Senators are not gonna be hostile to KCMO. I follow just about every KC region Dem in Kansas- they love Kansas City and want to partner with it. They don’t view it as some hostile area or competitor like GOP does. Many of them tweet out all the time they’d love to see KS partner with KCMO on light rail projects. I’m very optimistic of the things they will do once they become in control of Kansas soon.

Won't happen.

These people will take office by the end of decade for Kansas. If you’re arguing they won’t help the metro..okay. But they’re coming.

Fountains wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:44 pm

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 12:51 pm

Fountains wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:06 am

Won't happen.

These people will take office by the end of decade for Kansas. If you’re arguing they won’t help the metro..okay. But they’re coming.

I'm talking they won't win statewide and federal elections in KS.

Ha. That's gonna happen whether you like it or not. The only question is how much time is left on the clock for rural Kansas. From the data I've worked on, they've got about 8 years left before it's even. It'll start becoming an intense issue in the 2026 midterms (if GOP wins presidency in 2024)

Fountains wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:03 pm

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:51 pm

Fountains wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:44 pm

I'm talking they won't win statewide and federal elections in KS.

Ha. That's gonna happen whether you like it or not. The only question is how much time is left on the clock for rural Kansas. From the data I've worked on, they've got about 8 years left before it's even. It'll start becoming an intense issue in the 2026 midterms (if GOP wins presidency in 2024)

They've been saying that since 2006.

Idk what they did or said back then but there was no evidence for it in 2006. The first sign was 2016. Then 2020 confirmed it.

Fountains wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:25 pm

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:05 pm

Fountains wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:03 pm

They've been saying that since 2006.

Idk what they did or said back then but there was no evidence for it in 2006. The first sign was 2016. Then 2020 confirmed it.

What signs were that?

2012- R+21.6
2016- R+20.4
2020- R+14.6

It's shifting, and it picked up a ton of pace there. We'll see how fast of a pace it stays at, but I think it'll be around R+10 in 2024. Especially with Trump.

Fountains wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:18 pm

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:01 am

Fountains wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:25 pm

What signs were that?

2012- R+21.6
2016- R+20.4
2020- R+14.6

It's shifting, and it picked up a ton of pace there. We'll see how fast of a pace it stays at, but I think it'll be around R+10 in 2024. Especially with Trump.

It's interesting that you left out 2008 because had you included it that from 2008-2016 would have disproven your narrative. What changed was peoples approval of Trump. Kansas wasn't the only state where this happened.

If you actually understood modern political trends then you'd know why 2008 isn't here- because 2016 is when the *realignment* occurred. The parties represent different views than now they did in 2008. The only reason 2012 is even shown here is to show the shift towards the realignment.

Post-2016 is all that matters now because the parties shifted massively under Trump. Rust Belt states are red now, sun belt is blue. This wasn't even remotely a thing before 2016.

So yes, Kansas is shifting very quickly to the left. By literally every modern metric. And no, not all 50 states are doing that. Many, many states have gotten redder because of Trump.

Fountains wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:50 pm This is incorrect. There's a countless number of states where Trump in 2020 that were by a much smaller margin than his victory in 2016. Kansas is not shifting into a purple state that's almost as absurd as your claim that JoCo is going to play ball with KCMO.

Political data is my speciality. It's not that hard to read if you know the intricacies of election cycles.
- Kansas was one of like 11 states in 2016 that actually moved to Dems.
- KS was also in the top 8(?) states with the sharpest shifts to the left in 2020

Two elections cycles in a row it's one of the biggest movers against the national trends. It really is indisputable too, both GOP & Dem pundits recognize Kansas's shift left. KS & Alaska are the top two targets for Dems to hit by 2030. If it goes down to 10 or less by 2024 then it'll be right on track.

As for JoCo this is something nobody has ever encountered before- Dems owning Johnson County, They're demonstrably not as hostile as your 2004 JoCo Republicans. Yes I absolutely think they will be alot better than what we're used to to when they take the state government in 2030.