KCRag Forum

Big Q4/2020 report from Berkadia...
https://www.berkadia.com/wp-content/upl ... imized.pdf

Track upcoming here...
https://www.berkadia.com/people-and-loc ... nsas-city/

Interesting, but how much of this will actually get built? I know Shawnee already voted down #62, 5700 King Street, and the Belmont Promenade project (#63) shows no signs of getting underway anytime soon.

CBRE report for US Multi-Family figures. KC metro ranked 20th for completions for full year, 3rd in Midwest - though slowed down in Q4.

Curious that Nashville isn't listed high for completions yet significant rent drop. Not surprising to see NYC and LA had negative absorption for the year, Chicago significant drop for Q4.

https://www.cbre.us/research-and-report ... es-Q4-2020

edit: fixed link

Berkadia Q1/2021 report. Occupancy rate is down for both city/metro overall as supply is delivered at higher rate than demand. In net absorption, Olathe led the metro in Q1 and Central City for the last year.



https://www.berkadia.com/people-and-loc ... nsas-city/

CBRE Q1/2021 completed units for quarter. KC metro shows negative net absorption for quarter (though pretty decent for last 4 Qs). Berkadia above post shows +350 absorption, so perhaps somewhere between. Looks like CBRE has a different definition of completed/delivered than Berkadia as the Q1 numbers are quite different.

CBRE says KC may be at risk of overbuilding given over 3% new of total inventory added. That might help slow rising rents but also may deter future investment for more units.



https://www.cbre.us/research-and-report ... es-Q1-2021

Cushman Q1 report shows quite a bit of net absorption and showing the most deliveries. Perhaps they have the most comprehensive MF report, hard to say. They all use different methodologies.

Central urban corridor shows decent absorption but a vacancy jump to about 10% partly due to supply jump, higher than demand and perhaps central KC had a bit of urban COVID exodus as many cities had. Not a net loss exodus but enough to slow down gains relative to added supply.


https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/uni ... arketbeats

Berkadia Q2 MF housing report, including pipeline...
https://www.berkadia.com/research-and-r ... leadership

Shows Three Light as planned rather than under construction, didn't it break ground in June? Shows fewer units planned for 4L than 3L, so the smaller footprint location to N of theaters?

Another Berkadia Q2 MF report...
https://www.berkadia.com/wp-content/upl ... s-City.pdf

Heightened construction across Greater Kansas City was met with robust demand that outpaced new supply for the past two years as well as the first half of 2021. Net move-ins in the metropolitan area totaled 2,307 in the first six months of this year. During this same time, Central Kansas City and South Overland Park submarkets led net absorption, accounting for 52% of the total leasing activity. Overland Park—the second largest city in the region—is experiencing a revitalization drawing new residents

June housing permit YTD report. Indy taking off with single family homes. Madison taking off with multi-family.



https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics ... Metro-Area

Newmark Zimmer claims KC metro multi-family unit absorption higher in Q2/2021 than any quarter last 10 years. edit: Cushman showed over 3K units absorbed in Q1 a few posts back so hard to say what's up as they all use different methodologies. Will be interesting to see if Cushman Q2 report shows higher than Q1, not released yet.


https://nmrkzimmer.com/sites/default/fi ... arkets.pdf

Walked past 2nd Deleware last night and about every light is lit. The only units without had lights had stuff on balconies, etc indicating they are leased. I’ll check their portal later but I bet they are done with lease up.

CityClub and Reverb are really starting to take off. I wonder if CityClub will go ahead and remove their AirBnB section now.

KC asking rents are rising below national average but among tops in Midwest. Obviously not good news for renters but does draw attention to developers. However 'Completions as % of total stock' is over 3% for KC and that is considered overbuilt territory if the units don't move quickly. Achieving over 3% means developers have a lot of confidence in KC.

Also note the job growth from May 2020 to 2021. KC at 0%, which means job recovery among best of markets on the list.. most of the others well behind catching up with employment.


https://www.yardimatrix.com/media/downl ... gnup=false

earthling wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:38 am KC asking rents are rising below national average but among tops in Midwest. Obviously not good news for renters but does draw attention to developers. However 'Completions as % of total stock' is over 3% for KC and that is considered overbuilt territory if the units don't move quickly. Achieving over 3% means developers have a lot of confidence in KC.

Also note the job growth from May 2020 to 2021. KC at 0%, which means job recovery among best of markets on the list.. most of the others well behind catching up with employment.


https://www.yardimatrix.com/media/downl ... gnup=false

Amazing 3.4 is right up there with the ‘hot’ metros

Can someone please explain that last column “Completions” for me? And the significance of 3%?

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 12:57 pm Can someone please explain that last column “Completions” for me? And the significance of 3%?

As I understand It, it means that Kansas City’s amount of housing grew by 3.4% in one year. Since it’s market I’m guessing it means the whole metro which has maybe 800,000-1,000,000 units I’d reckon. So if you take 1,000,000 then that means there are an additional 34,000 homes over last year. If population keeps to the same amount per unit then we could grow an additional 3.4% to accommodate those units. Keep in mind though that it’s not strictly tied to population, but rather a good indicator that developers believe the market is heating up and things are growing well.

Apologies if I’m wrong I don’t work in this field, I just have an economics background.

Yes, but It's the multifamily units only not single homes recently completed relative to total available in the market. For every 100K units existing in a market, 3% would be 3K. Adding 3% within a relatively short period is a lot.

I’m sure KC proper was the majority of the addition, do you know what standard number of people living in multi family is?

South JoCo seems to be adding a ton of apartments as well

^The Q1 Cushman report above says RiverCrownPlaza highest with about 2500 unit recently delivered/UC. South JoCo 2nd highest with about 1800 recently delivered/UC. Q2 report should be coming soon.

Riverite wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:42 pm I’m sure KC proper was the majority of the addition, do you know what standard number of people living in multi family is?

I've typically seen around 1.5 to 1.7 people per unit for multifamily in KC.

KC metro has grown by 1% per year at best last 10 years so 3%/yr is a huge increase of units especially considering 1.5+ ppu. If new MF construction continues at that pace for years, it may be at the expense of fewer single family homes unless KC growth booms.