KCRag Forum

Posted: **Wed Mar 09, 2022 5:11 pm**

daGOAT wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 4:14 pm No doubt I'll throw in 2024's KC Current Stadium, 2025's streetcar openings, and 2026's potential World Cup involvement and say it's looking like good times in Kansas City to me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6pmZE1Qtyw

Posted: **Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:05 am**

No surprise that national hotel construction is still down but pipeline planning is up...

U.S. Hotel Pipeline
March 2022 (percentage change in comparison with March 2021):

In Construction: 154,881 rooms (-15.7%)
Final Planning: 177,756 rooms (-16.8%)
Planning: 297,046 rooms (+26.3%)

https://str.com/press-release/us-pipeline-march-2022

KC's pipeline was second highest in Midwest last Q4, Q1 report should come in another month or so.
https://www.nmrk.com/storage-nmrk/uploa ... eports.pdf

However Dodge Data forecasts a slowdown in hotel construction for KC through next year...
https://www.enr.com/ext/resources/Issue ... 1647289449

Posted: **Sun Apr 24, 2022 7:21 am**

Not sure if this has been shared but shows 2022 projected hotel revenue

https://www.ahla.com/sites/default/file ... l%2022.pdf

Posted: **Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:21 am**

^That's an interesting report about biz travel levels. Hopefully that forecast is right about KC hit only 10% behind 2019 as far as biz travel, though KC wasn't strong in biz travel to begin with. Newmark claims KC's overall hotel index behind Midwest avg and index near bottom of over 100 markets as of Q4/2021. Q1/2022 should be coming soon.

Posted: **Thu May 19, 2022 6:39 am**

Newmark Q1/2022 report for KC...
https://www.nmrk.com/storage-nmrk/uploa ... s-City.pdf

Metro occupancy a bit over 50%, sligntly better than Midwest. KC occupancy typically was near 70% before pandemic. Revenue index also now a bit above Midwest and US avg, KC was below Midwest average last year. Room supply is at 35K Q1 compared to near 36K peak.

Here's the rest of Midwest...
https://www.nmrk.com/storage-nmrk/uploa ... eports.pdf

Chicago only at about 45% occupancy but revenue index high due to higher room rates. MSP area also struggling with about 45% occupancy.

The reports also show pipeline and KC still has plans for the most hotel rooms in Midwest outside Chicago, though Hotel Bravo still listed and wouldn't expect over half to get built for quite a while. MSP pipeline isn't much.

Posted: **Thu May 19, 2022 9:19 am**

National report for Q1. US average occupancy at 57%, mainly above avg in Sun Belt and some touristy markets. In general from other articles, leisure travel has been hot and biz travel/conferences not returning as quickly.

https://www.nmrk.com/storage-nmrk/uploa ... hboard.pdf

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 8:54 pm**

Man the sources I have say the convention business is roaring back and pick up of numbers is excellent. I only have insight on a couple markets though that are tier 1.

Posted: **Sat May 21, 2022 4:59 am**

That may be with publicly attended events like home shows, RV/boat shows, comicons, etc but not as much of a return with company/employee attended conferences. From what I've seen overall conference biz globally is at about 2/3 of 2019, not sure about US. CES Vegas convention attendance was down 75% this year compared to past. Travel involving public/leisure is hot partly due to cabin fever, company travel is improving but not to same degree. The ahla link above projects US hotel biz travel still down 1/4 by end of this year.

Posted: **Sat May 21, 2022 8:06 am**

KCPowercat wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 8:54 pm Man the sources I have say the convention business is roaring back and pick up of numbers is excellent. I only have insight on a couple markets though that are tier 1.

Anecdotally comic con a few weeks back was incredibly busy downtown. I know VisitKC is working to bring more events here as well, so hopefully we’ll pick up more of the convention market.

Posted: **Sat May 21, 2022 8:54 am**

Anthony_Hugo98 wrote: ↑Sat May 21, 2022 8:06 am
KCPowercat wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 8:54 pm Man the sources I have say the convention business is roaring back and pick up of numbers is excellent. I only have insight on a couple markets though that are tier 1.
Anecdotally comic con a few weeks back was incredibly busy downtown. I know VisitKC is working to bring more events here as well, so hopefully we’ll pick up more of the convention market.

Folk music convention this week. Westin was busy

Posted: **Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:11 pm**

National hotel occupancy slipping some probably partly due to increasing fuel prices, according to...

This shows national hotel labor recovery compared to 2019 level per hotel class. Basically higher end hotels probably need reduced staff compared to 2019 in order to profit...

This is KC metro's revenue index relative to 2019 (score of 100). Doesn't explain all of the submarkets but overall dropping since April. Oddly the lines are not in color even though legend is.

KC and Indy have the highest revenue index compared to rest of midwest (over 90). The rest of the Midwest is below 90, with MSP and Chicago under 70. Twin Cities, Seattle, San Fran still struggling compared to 2019 mostly due to much lower biz related travel.

Posted: **Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:13 am**

With the World Cup announcement, will be curious to see how many metro hotels in the pipeline actually deliver and if any new are added. Even though it's just one short event, some hotel plans that have been on the fence or holding might go for it.

According to this, KC metro has about 35K active rooms or so. In the pipeline the list claims nearly 4K rooms planned to be added by 2026, though some may be outdated as Hotel Bravo still on list and is dead. There's an additional 3500+ rooms listed as 'proposed'. Many have probably been on hold due to pandemic slowdown but the WC announcement might trigger some/many of these to follow through although potential recession might not.

Will be interesting to see the changes of the Q3/Q4 reports compared to the recent reports.

Posted: **Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:28 am**

earthling wrote: ↑Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:13 am With the World Cup announcement, will be curious to see how many metro hotels in the pipeline actually deliver and if any new are added. Even though it's just one short event, some hotel plans that have been on the fence or holding might go for it.

According to this, KC metro has about 35K active rooms or so. In the pipeline the list claims nearly 4K rooms planned to be added by 2026, though some may be outdated as Hotel Bravo still on list and is dead. There's an additional 3500+ rooms listed as 'proposed'. Many have probably been on hold due to pandemic slowdown but the WC announcement might trigger some/many of these to follow through although potential recession might not.

Will be interesting to see the changes of the Q3/Q4 reports compared to the recent reports.

Honestly I doubt it’s out of the realm of possibility for some dead projects to be resurrected. I could definitely see bravo come back, they’d love to get a piece of high roller action for people following their national teams

Posted: **Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:35 am**

^If Bravo is fully privately financed. Getting incentives have and probably will still fail. There are thousands of rooms in pipeline closer to reality that have a higher chance of completing.

Posted: **Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:44 pm**

earthling wrote: ↑Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:35 am ^If Bravo is fully privately financed. Getting incentives have and probably will still fail. There are thousands of rooms in pipeline closer to reality that have a higher chance of completing.

Hotel Bravo has been and remains alive -- if you ask the developers. But their continued insistence of public funds to make the project viable is not a winning argument.

We'll see if projects on life-support (Hyatt House, Embassy Suites, etc.) gather some momentum related to the WC2026 announcement.

The count I have has the metro right around 35,800 in supply at the moment, with another 4,100 to be added according to announced projects. Now we of course know some of those projects will not actually happen, but others will be added in the near term (those speculative projects without a ton of concrete info that I do not count with my tracking figures).

Posted: **Fri Jun 17, 2022 1:16 pm**

Your count pretty much inline with Q1 Newmark report, with probably a few more rooms that have come back online since Q1. Is your source STR subscription?

Do you have recent downtown occupancy %?

Posted: **Fri Jun 17, 2022 1:51 pm**

earthling wrote: ↑Fri Jun 17, 2022 1:16 pm Your count pretty much inline with Q1 Newmark report, with probably a few more rooms that have come back online since Q1. Is your source STR subscription?

Do you have recent downtown occupancy %?

Yeah, a portion of my list comes from STR's reporting -- but their pipeline data can be inconsistent on a local level. So it's also inclusive of a few additional sources, both nationally and locally.

Downtown's YTD 2022 (through May 31) occupancy is at 50.4%. Not close to where we need to be, but it's trending in a positive direction. ST2021 was 28.1%; 2020 33.5%; 2019 59.2%. June's been great so far. In fact, Downtown just had its best week (in terms of Demand/Rooms Sold) in 3+ years.

Downtown in this reporting includes Downtown Loop, Crossroads & Crown Center, just for clarification.

Posted: **Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:03 pm**

^That's pretty good considering all the new downtown rooms added last several years. Can profit with reduced staff if need be.

DTKC is maybe fortunate the hotels are not too dependent on biz travel as leisure/public event travel has pretty much restored.

STR's numbers seem to be pretty much inline with others but their analysis tends to be misleading/overstated with the tone of industry shills.

Posted: **Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:45 am**

I wish the developer of Embassy Suites at the Reserve would just sell to some other developer who could get that project completed. It's taking too long.

I hope The Aladdin gets refreshed too. The Ace Hotel chain would be good there.

Posted: **Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:12 am**

^We might see some ownership and flag changes with upgrades of existing hotels over next couple years partly due to attention of WC hype. Bigger ticket players will likely at least take a look at KC properties partly due to the hype and avg RevPAR now better than Midwest. Plaza InterContinental could use a better positioned owner, maybe a switch back to Ritz.

Delivering more units has some obvious challenges (labor shortages, supply chain, inflation, etc). Any projects in later stages that has everything lined up just might pull the trigger to move forward.

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