I think the results from it passing are better than not. The city has been weak in this area in recent years.
If it will pass, I won't try to make a guess.
It's possible the majority of consistent voters that had not rode the streetcar last November have by this August. If a good experience translates into voting yes for expansion is the wild card.
The last election saw every infrastructure tax increase pass so maybe that shows the trend or maybe that's the only big new tax people will say yes to. We just don't know.
It's been 8 years since a citywide rail election. To me, the latest TDD ballot numbers is a good sign for interest even if not definitive.
Also of note, the minimum wage item is on the same ballot. Will the east side turn out and vote for that and the whole city paying for improved transit mostly to the east side?
To me, I could see the amount raised covering about 10-15 miles of track beyond the track the expanded TDD builds. At least through NKC to I-29, a little more of the Indep Ave and Linwood lines than were up in 2014 and go well past UMKC down to Research. I don't think we'll find the money needed to go much further unless it's a federal match to do everything in the ordinance.
The lines as described largely follow the 2014 city streetcar plan with the 2009 light rail plan and a few pieces from earlier plans of his plus some bus extensions. So it's functionally a hybrid of the city plans and his plans. There's no incentive to completely retool the plan when the city has tried to get these routes built already.
It says nothing about the TDD in it but I imagine the TDD passing the needed match could be funded from this tax. Only a stupid person would argue that wouldn't help maximize what could be built.
Transform the city’s downtown streetcar system into a more rapid rail system (operating at faster speeds, with fewer stops and predominantly in new transit greenways separated from traffic) and also expand it into a more citywide streetcar system by adding 4 new lines: (a) a south line from Union Station to the Kansas City Zoo with intermediate stops at Penn Valley Park, Armour, Westport, the Plaza, UMKC, Rockhurst University, 57th St. & Troost, Brookside at 63rd St., and Research Hospital; (b) a north line from the City Market to the central northland with 2 intermediate stops; (c) an east line from downtown to the Jackson County Sports Complex with intermediate stops at Hospital Hill, Troost, Prospect, and the VA hospital; and (d) a second east line from downtown to the Old Northeast; and with express electric-bus service provided from the northern rail station to Twin Creeks Neighborhood and Kansas City International Airport, from the KC Zoo rail station to the Cerner Campus at Bannister and beyond, and from the Plaza rail station to Brookside, Waldo and South Kansas City; and
To break that up
1. south line from Union Station to the Kansas City Zoo with intermediate stops at Penn Valley Park, Armour, Westport, the Plaza, UMKC, Rockhurst University, 57th St. & Troost, Brookside at 63rd St., and Research Hospital.
This can follow the TDD plan and continue on south. It deviates from the 2009 plan by avoiding going down US 71 and the 2014 plan by needing to get to Rockhurst and 57th/Troost. Might have two branches based on the description
2. a north line from the City Market to the central northland
This seems like it's Burlington to N Oak as far as Gladstone. The 2009 rail plan could show this route through NE Vivion Rd
3. an east line from downtown to the Jackson County Sports Complex with intermediate stops at Hospital Hill, Troost, Prospect, and the VA hospital
This seems like it's the hospital hill routing of the Linwood/31st line and gets almost to the stadiums to connect to commuter rail
4. a second east line from downtown to the Old Northeast
this is clearly the Independence Ave line
The farther destinations like the airport, Cerner Campus and stadiums would be under this aspect of the ordinance
Establish a new electric mini-bus fleet and new bikeway feeder system to assist people in getting to and from streetcar stations without the need of a private automobile; and
If the busses must be electric is a good question. Wish he just would have said that expanded bus service would connect to the train in a less specific way
The ballot item is a little more clear than that
all for the purpose of constructing, maintaining and operating one or more extensions to the streetcar system, that might include a fleet of electric buses to transport people to and from light rail system stations and from a northern station to KCI, from the Kansas City Zoo to the new Cerner Campus, and from the Country Club Plaza to Brookside and south, or as much as can be constructed, maintained and operated with proceeds of the tax, including necessary bridges and other infrastructure?
In my opinion it provides the northland and east side a clear value for their vote to make a decision on while not pushing the cost only on a single part of town
His latest two ballot items have had one notable difference from earlier ones that's genius.
The city shall use the tax proceeds for the implementation and on-going operation and maintenance of as much as possible of the following Improvements to the City’s Public Transportation Infrastructure within Kansas City, Missouri city limits:
as can be constructed, maintained and operated with proceeds of the tax, including necessary bridges and other infrastructure
Let's say it passes.
There's a lawsuit risk in two areas.
1. if the city does nothing or says it can't be done. He ran into before when another plan of his (2007?) was thrown out because he dramatically underestimated the cost. It's clear he bypassed that problem with the "as can be"/"as much as" text.
2. If it's clear the city isn't maximizing the distance it can reach by picking expensive routes that are shorter. Remember, the city already studied these routes and has a close cost estimate, making this effort transparent
The wildcard on a lawsuit is do we need the busses with the rail or can be build just the rail? Would he say the ordinance is being ignored if the city doesn't add bus service to the northland or east side to connect to the train