Politics

[earthling]

Looks like there is a desperation for change the DEMs didn't see coming, which is partly the same thing that got Obama in first time ("Change we can believe in" was his slogan) and he didn't come through after 2 terms for those struggling. And it clearly is a loss for The Establishment.

Fewer Blacks, Latinos and Millennials voted for Clinton than Obama. Bernie supporters wanted change and he was also considered relatively an outsider - apparently most went for any outsider representing change, even rust belt working class where Bernie won in the Primaries.

And so now we have an authoritarian leaning, unpredictable president with the most power in a long time given no conflicting Congress. And he is what establishment GOP appropriately called a 'snake oil salesman' during the primaries.

If Trump doesn't royally screw things up the first 4 years, DEMs will probably need an outsider to have a chance next election.

The biggest win for GOP is up to 4 Supreme Court picks coming up. Progressives/DEMs are probably going to be pressing a 'return to the dark ages' message next 4 years. That is if Trump doesn't get us nuked by then.

[brewcrew1000]

3 things I could see happen under Trump

1. A wall is not built
2. Obama care is not repealed
3. Some kind of assault weapon ban

I think Trump is going to give people a voice of reason in such a divided and bickering nation.

[AllThingsKC]

Your guy may have won but at least I'll live the rest of my life knowing I didn't vote for a white supremacist.

Saw Chris Rock the other night, who joked that the thing he loves about Trump is that his existence proves black people haven't been overreacting. And he's right, although I imagine he's not laughing about it now. Conservatives in particular have argued that we're "beyond" racism because we have a black president. But it's self-evident from his own words that Trump is virulently racist. Even Republicans have called him out on this. So you voted for an openly racist, proudly misogynist hate-monger. What does that say about you?

Well, maybe you're right. After all, the left was accurate in predicting this election. So, you'd probably have a better feel for these things than I would.

Oh, and I didn't vote for Trump. Way to assume I did. Your post was just as far from reality as the left. I'm sorry Hillary didn't win. But holy cow, grow up.

[TheBigChuckbowski]

Your guy may have won but at least I'll live the rest of my life knowing I didn't vote for a white supremacist.

Saw Chris Rock the other night, who joked that the thing he loves about Trump is that his existence proves black people haven't been overreacting. And he's right, although I imagine he's not laughing about it now. Conservatives in particular have argued that we're "beyond" racism because we have a black president. But it's self-evident from his own words that Trump is virulently racist. Even Republicans have called him out on this. So you voted for an openly racist, proudly misogynist hate-monger. What does that say about you?

Well, maybe you're right. After all, the left was accurate in predicting this election. So, you'd probably have a better feel for these things than I would.

Oh, and I didn't vote for Trump. Way to assume I did. Your post was just as far from reality as the left. I'm sorry Hillary didn't win. But holy cow, grow up.

Why do you keep acting like it was just the left that got this wrong? EVERYONE (except Kellyanne Conway) did. At 7:00pm last night, Republicans thought it was over, just like Democrats.

[brewcrew1000]

I think by the next election cycle Georgia turns blue. Its an interesting state and they say its the state that most reflects how are demographics in America look. Its crazy that the population of Georgia has almost 1 million Latinos.

[flyingember]

The Republican party leadership has it's chance to make the case for their viewpoint politically. The era of being able to just say no is over and the party must be able to take ideas and run with them. The "they suck" election can't be run, the next election will have to be about right wing success.


There's a clear generational shift happening that hasn't quite made it to elections. Change is often painful one way or another and we saw how divided the country is. Older and rural voters drove this election. The question is, with the generational and demographic shift underway, how quickly will things change?


Was this the last baby boomer driven election? And when will OH, PA, MI stop determining elections in favor of western states?

First, let's look at the baby boomers.

This chart is from 2000. What will 2020 look like? To be blunt, this generation is right on the beginning of their natural decline as this age group naturally dies off. 50% turnout has less power when each election sees a notable decrease in the number of voters.

The question is how quickly will millennials start voting more in response to this election of will this generation, age 25 to 40 normally votes at around a 15% rate. There's a huge chance to turn out the vote in this age group. Will it be the 2020 or 2024 election where this group has enough power to determine elections?

Now, onto redistricting.
The next census is in 2020 so redistricting will affect the 2024 presidential election. Don't think each district, look at the electoral college.

Ohio is giving estimates it's not going to gain much population between now and 2040, will be essentially flat.
https://development.ohio.gov/files/research/P6001.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... rowth_rate
This matches this guide reasonably enough.

Here's several guesses for redistricting. Let's first compare to if the states vote the same way in 2024
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crysta ... ojections/
Republicans would gain one seat.

http://demography.cpc.unc.edu/2015/11/0 ... -and-west/
Neither gains.

So it's not the electoral college that will determine presidential elections, it's demographics and who votes in the same tossup states as the past two decades. Watch the trend lines on millennial and minority voters. Will this election mean greater turnout or not will determine the next election.

With this idea of deporting all illegal immigrants how many finally make the effort, become citizen and vote is going be a huge part of the future.

[mean]

I remember being infuriated in 2004 when Howard Dean was essentially disqualified from the race because he kind of yelled a bit awkwardly one time. Now, 12 years later, a candidate can admit on tape to potentially being a sexual predator and get elected president.

This doesn't really feel like progress.

[taxi]

It is the opposite of progress.

[AllThingsKC]

Why do you keep acting like it was just the left that got this wrong? EVERYONE (except Kellyanne Conway) did. At 7:00pm last night, Republicans thought it was over, just like Democrats.

Republicans thought it was over at 7:00pm?

With all the polls showing Hillary leading, and all the early voting showing Hillary leading, and all the exit polls showing Hillary leading, and all the news stories about how good it looked for Hillary, it just seems we've missed the boat.

Maybe the GOP did too. They probably didn't expect to flip, say, Wisconsin, for example. That probably didn't expect Trump's narrow path to the White House to get much wider. So yeah, perhaps they missed the boat a little too.

So unless the polls were over sampling Democrats, I don't know how they could have been so far off.

[kcjak]

What really saddens me is that so many people think they only need to vote in presidential elections to have their voices heard; the really powerful elections are the ones fewer people vote in - mid-terms and primaries.

[earthling]

The primaries had a relatively good turnout this time if I recall. To think if GOP only had about 3 candidates running early on, Trump may have not gained traction.

[bobbyhawks]

I love how there is this "change" narrative out there, and yet the same people who voted for Trump also voted for retreads in the House and Senate. The 15% approval rating Congress is largely left intact, and the 55% approval rating president is replaced by a guy with no experience from the opposing party. Just incredibly wild.

[mean]

The "change" narrative that propelled Trump's success isn't really change, it's repudiating changes like multiculturalism and globalism and tolerance. But none of those genies are going back in the bottle, so at the end of the day I'm not sure what electing Trump is really going to accomplish for his supporters.

[AllThingsKC]

I assume Trump supporters are just happy to keep Hillary out of the White House. It's not like they can point to his record and say that's how he'll lead the country.

[swid]

In reality, very little, but just like the Brexit vote and the rise of nationalist populism in Europe, it sends a very loud message that a lot of people in industrialized countries feel left behind economically, are convinced that free trade hurts more than helps them personally, and are very uncomfortable with with the ongoing multiculturization of their societies.

So unless something is drastically different economically or geo-politically two/four/eight years from now, we'll likely just see more populists with promises to somehow change all this.

[droopy]

According to my facebooks he's going to drain the swamp, fix the economy with his business sense and shake things up with his no-nonsense approach.

[AllThingsKC]

That all sounds great to me. But I'm still waiting for details.

[flyingember]

According to my facebooks he's going to drain the swamp

I found a new meme. 1990s kids show where draining a swamp increases flooding so we need swamps.

https://www.schooltube.com/video/5f1d2b ... %20Swamped

[bobbyhawks]

I just can't see why a major candidate would decide to tell the truth about anything that doesn't serve their best interests from now on. There were no consequences to him just making things up or implying unfounded conspiracies, and people loved the hell out of it.

[kboish]

To me, this is like how the ocean recedes just before a tsunami hits.

Nothing about this election demonstrated a shift in the thinking of the american people. As always, this election was about getting your constituents out to vote. The dems have a pure numbers advantage nationally (total registered dem voters), but they couldn't get them to vote. Republicans did not see an increase in their voting numbers compared to the last two elections (they did do marginally well in certain key districts, but overall , they were down). What happened at the presidential level was the Dem's demographic did not come out to vote and still almost won (well, technically she did win the popular vote).

Demographically, at current trends, there is an eventuality that the R's will have to deal with regarding the decline of their base at the national level. There is, of course, a multitude of other variables that will affect future voting patterns (Dem ineptitude, marginalization of party politics generally, external events, etc), but generally speaking the numbers game doesn't look good for the R's.

The state/local level political game is a completely different story. The R's have seen the writing on the wall for sometime and this is likely why they have spent most of their time focusing on controlling state politics for the past twenty plus years. Much of their nationwide political success can be directly linked to their local level success.