TIME TO FREAK OUT AGAIN ABOUT CONFERENCE REALIGNMENT! THE BIG 12 IS DEAD! MAYBE!

[phna]

?I don?t think there?s any question that if we don?t get to that level at some point, we?re going to continue to find ourselves further and further behind the Big Ten, the SEC and probably the ACC, as well as behind Texas and Oklahoma, in particular, and maybe Nebraska in our league,?

--Missouri Athletics Director Mike Alden

http://gazetteonline.com/blogs/docs-off ... of-big-ten

[aknowledgeableperson]

Some of the latest news.

http://www.kansascity.com/105/story/1704959.html

For any school, joining the Big Ten ? the nation?s original conference ? would mean more athletic revenue and greater exposure as part of a conference with its own television network and academic prestige.
...
But what can?t be debated is the Big Ten?s superior wealth and exposure. The Big Ten Network is available in more than 70 million homes and shows about 350 live events annually, with more women?s and Olympic sports than any other network, according to its Web site.

The conference has agreements with the Big Ten Network at $2.8 billion for 25 years, and ESPN for $1 billion over 10 years. The deal is expected to pay the 11 conference members some $17 million to $20 million annually over the life of the contract, and the conference shares its revenue equally.

The Big 12 deals: $480 million with ABC/ESPN for eight years through 2016, and $78 million with Fox Sports through 2012. Last year the conference gave out between $7 million and $10 million per school, primarily through its media and bowl contracts.

Missouri?s athletic director, Mike Alden, sees MU and other Big 12 schools falling behind those in the Big Ten and Southeastern Conference, which also has lucrative media contracts.

?Illinois and Indiana will make $9 million more from its televisions contracts this year,? Alden said. ?Arkansas and Mississippi will make even more. That?s our comparison. In five years, they?ll have generated almost $50 million more than us without selling a ticket.?
...
Then there?s this: It has been suggested that expansion might not stop with 12 teams. The Big Ten could super-size and become college sports? largest football conference by adding three rather than one.

That could start a shuffling college sports hasn?t seen since the Supreme Court ruled in 1984 that the NCAA no longer controlled televised college football and schools scrambled to cut their own deals with new conferences.

It?s the reason why, by the 1990s, the Big 12 was formed, Penn State ended its independent status and joined the Big Ten, the Big East started football and the SEC expanded. The movement didn?t stop until 2005 with expansion and reshuffling in the Atlantic Coast Conference and Big East. The Big 12 wasn?t part of that shifting but could have some difficult decisions to make this time.

[shinatoo]

Some of the latest news.

http://www.kansascity.com/105/story/1704959.html

For any school, joining the Big Ten ? the nation?s original conference ? would mean more athletic revenue and greater exposure as part of a conference with its own television network and academic prestige.
...
But what can?t be debated is the Big Ten?s superior wealth and exposure. The Big Ten Network is available in more than 70 million homes and shows about 350 live events annually, with more women?s and Olympic sports than any other network, according to its Web site.

The conference has agreements with the Big Ten Network at $2.8 billion for 25 years, and ESPN for $1 billion over 10 years. The deal is expected to pay the 11 conference members some $17 million to $20 million annually over the life of the contract, and the conference shares its revenue equally.

The Big 12 deals: $480 million with ABC/ESPN for eight years through 2016, and $78 million with Fox Sports through 2012. Last year the conference gave out between $7 million and $10 million per school, primarily through its media and bowl contracts.

Missouri?s athletic director, Mike Alden, sees MU and other Big 12 schools falling behind those in the Big Ten and Southeastern Conference, which also has lucrative media contracts.

?Illinois and Indiana will make $9 million more from its televisions contracts this year,? Alden said. ?Arkansas and Mississippi will make even more. That?s our comparison. In five years, they?ll have generated almost $50 million more than us without selling a ticket.?
...
Then there?s this: It has been suggested that expansion might not stop with 12 teams. The Big Ten could super-size and become college sports? largest football conference by adding three rather than one.

That could start a shuffling college sports hasn?t seen since the Supreme Court ruled in 1984 that the NCAA no longer controlled televised college football and schools scrambled to cut their own deals with new conferences.

It?s the reason why, by the 1990s, the Big 12 was formed, Penn State ended its independent status and joined the Big Ten, the Big East started football and the SEC expanded. The movement didn?t stop until 2005 with expansion and reshuffling in the Atlantic Coast Conference and Big East. The Big 12 wasn?t part of that shifting but could have some difficult decisions to make this time.

Thank you BLAIR KERKHOFF for recaping what everyone said 6 weeks ago.

[LenexatoKCMO]

The league office has certainly done a criminally poor job of negotiating the TV deals.  If they can't substantially boost it after the current deals expire, the schools really need to demand that the entire league office get a vigorous house cleaning - starting with all of the stale executives.  For far too long the league jobs have just been a place for washed up AD-types to collect a big paycheck with zero expectations - it needs to be made clear that far more is expected. 

[bbqboy]

Hmmm. I wonder if the $$$ paid out by TV for sports contracts is sustainable in the long run.

[aknowledgeableperson]

As long as people watch it there will be advertisers willing to pay to advertise. In the past there has been some speculation that some of the big events may go to pay-per-view in the future.

[KCMax]

Hmmm. I wonder if the $$$ paid out by TV for sports contracts is sustainable in the long run.

I've read that they are often money losers, but TV execs hope to get their money back by promoting other more profitable shows and getting those sports fans to watch. That's why you see 36,000 ads for "Two and Half Men" during an NFL game.

I have to wonder how profitable the Big Ten Network is. I had it for awhile and most of the ads were either non-profits, or crappy local ads.

[TheBigChuckbowski]

I've read that they are often money losers, but TV execs hope to get their money back by promoting other more profitable shows and getting those sports fans to watch. That's why you see 36,000 ads for "Two and Half Men" during an NFL game.

I have to wonder how profitable the Big Ten Network is. I had it for awhile and most of the ads were either non-profits, or crappy local ads.

Keep in mind that they get money from cable providers as well. Plus, the Big 10 can probably charge a lot of money in Big 10 markets since I'm sure a cable company not offering the Big 10 network in Columbus will lose a lot of subscribers pretty fast.

But, on the other hand, no other conference has stepped up and done the same thing so they're definitely not rolling in money.

[LenexatoKCMO]

I suspect the fair market balance is probably somewhere closer to the middle.  I can't really picture why the B10 network can justify being head and shoulders above the other BCS leagues in TV revenue - especially given that they have generally delivered pretty mediocre product compared to the other leagues the last few years.  But I also don't think there is a reasonable basis for the B12 to be near the bottom when they have delivered a very competitive product.  I am sure that the market will even this out somewhat over the long run, but that is still no reason for us to not consider ditching the lousy execs who negotiated us down the river the last time. 

[KCMax]

I suspect the fair market balance is probably somewhere closer to the middle.  I can't really picture why the B10 network can justify being head and shoulders above the other BCS leagues in TV revenue - especially given that they have generally delivered pretty mediocre product compared to the other leagues the last few years. 

They have enormous schools with very large, very passionate fan bases in some of America's largest TV markets - Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Pittsburgh, and to an extent, St. Louis.

That's not to say the Big 12 shouldn't be a lot closer than it is in terms or revenue though. The commissioners of the Big 12 deserve all the criticism they receive.

[LenexatoKCMO]

They have enormous schools with very large, very passionate fan bases in some of America's largest TV markets - Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Pittsburgh, and to an extent, St. Louis.

That's not to say the Big 12 shouldn't be a lot closer than it is in terms or revenue though. The commissioners of the Big 12 deserve all the criticism they receive.

Yeah but those markets don't come anywhere near the Big East or P10 markets - and its not like Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Denver, OKC, KC, St Louis are exactly chopped liver, they certainly ought to represent more than ~1/5 the value of your list. 

[KCMax]

The Big East and Pac Ten aren't nearly as passionate about football though.

I am surprised the SEC hasn't tried this.

[LenexatoKCMO]

I am surprised the SEC hasn't tried this.

They managed to get $3b/15 years out of CBS/ESPN - clearly not as good as the B10's scam but certainly light years ahead of what those jokers down in Dallas managed to negotiate. 

The thing that keeps getting lost in all of this is that I would assume most of these contracts have to be re-negotiated to some extent if there is any sort of substantial reallignment.  The networks would be fools not to have negotiated that.  If folks start moving around, I have to think there is no gaurantee that the same money is on the same tables post moves. 

[bbqboy]

Pac 12?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 1BUVCC.DTL
  Larry Scott hasn't been the commissioner of the Pacific-10 Conference long enough to worry about such things, but if he has to have his shirts monogrammed to change the "0" to a "2," well, hang the expense.
    In a news conference designed to introduce former Big XII Commissioner and Big Ten Network creator Kevin Weiberg as his chief aide, Scott acknowledged that the time for considering conference expansion seriously and thoroughly is upon him and the 10 university presidents and chancellors.

Put another way, the clock is ticking on the notion of a Pac-12, presumably - though not officially - with Utah and Brigham Young as the most viable candidates.
cont......

[KCMax]

Utah and BYU seem like obvious choices. The Pac Ten has really been slow to follow the other conferences. They just implemented a post-season basketball tourney less than a decade ago and they still don't have a football championship.

The Big Ten expansion is likely to have ramifications throughout college football, affecting all BCS conferences.

[bbqboy]

Utah and BYU seem like obvious choices. The Pac Ten has really been slow to follow the other conferences. They just implemented a post-season basketball tourney less than a decade ago and they still don't have a football championship.

The Big Ten expansion is likely to have ramifications throughout college football, affecting all BCS conferences.

Utah and BYU don't seem to curry much favor with Bay Area fans, if the comments are any indication.
Not sure how the Pac 10 would recruit Colorado and Texas, as is mentioned in the article.

[KCMax]

The big sticking point would be that Utah and BYU don't really bring a bunch more TV viewers. Salt Lake City is a growing metropolis, but it isn't that big. BYU I supposed has a bit of a national following, but it isn't that great. I'm sure Colorado and/or Texas would be high on the Pac Ten's list, but that would be a step down in visibility for those two schools.

[grovester]

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.co ... tial-talks

that would be interesting

[shinatoo]

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.co ... tial-talks

that would be interesting

Good job cow-towing to Texas and moving the Big 12 HQ to Dallas. That really locked things up for the Big 12&

[KCMax]

Good job cow-towing to Texas and moving the Big 12 HQ to Dallas. That really locked things up for the Big 12&

Maybe we could get the HQ back and add TCU?