Page 21 of 35
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 8:20 am
by johnmatrix
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 8:46 am
by DaveKCMO
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 9:04 am
by flyingember
The 538 standard is to eliminate party bias in polling in races where party is a strong predictor of voting. Not sure I would use this site as a predictor of bias in a left vs left race where party isn't on the ballot.
That said, this poll is effectively useless to predict a winner, it has huge spread right now based on the number of undecideds and bias.
It shows anything from Lucus winning 73-27 to Justus winning 66-44.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 9:05 am
by beautyfromashes
She won my vote with the debates last night. I got the feeling Lucas was saying yes to everyone and telling them what they wanted to hear. When there are hundreds of citizen groups pulling in every direction, you need someone who will say no.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 9:06 am
by johnmatrix
Yeah I imagine Lucas is actually up more.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 11:03 am
by Critical_Mass
Hearing johnmatrix isn't a fan of Jolie Justus and no one cares...
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 11:14 am
by johnmatrix
Critical_Mass wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 11:03 am
Hearing johnmatrix isn't a fan of Jolie Justus and no one cares...
The butthurt is strong with this one.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 3:49 pm
by DaveKCMO
Remington's "races called correctly" score is 67%.
The percentage of polls in which the polling firm correctly identified the winner of the race. If the poll indicated a tie for the lead and one of the tied candidates won, the pollster is given credit for half a win.
Remington's February primary poll showed Justus in the lead and Steve Miller in the #2 spot (he finished fourth).
Regardless, it's an open secret that Lucas is working with people affiliated with the polling firm and that Remington's intense interest (free polls that usually cost!) in the mayoral race is connected to that. In short, take it for what it's worth until an independent outlet (like the Star) does a poll.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 4:29 pm
by flyingember
DaveKCMO wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 3:49 pm
Remington's "races called correctly" score is 67%.
The percentage of polls in which the polling firm correctly identified the winner of the race. If the poll indicated a tie for the lead and one of the tied candidates won, the pollster is given credit for half a win.
Remington's February primary poll showed Justus in the lead and Steve Miller in the #2 spot (he finished fourth).
Regardless, it's an open secret that Lucas is working with people affiliated with the polling firm and that Remington's intense interest (free polls that usually cost!) in the mayoral race is connected to that. In short, take it for what it's worth until an independent outlet (like the Star) does a poll.
Remington's methodology produces results that lean more Republican more than the real world so 538 adds 1.1 points to a Democratic candidate in their model.
So which Democrat do we use as the proxy Republican in the mayoral race so using their model makes sense?
Knowing who is paying for the polls is dramatically more useful than the 538 model.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Wed May 22, 2019 2:24 am
by FangKC
Pay no attention to polling. A bad rainstorm on Election Day could up-end this race.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Wed May 22, 2019 8:27 am
by johnmatrix
FangKC wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 2:24 am
Pay no attention to polling. A bad rainstorm on Election Day could up-end this race.
True but Lucas seems to have the energy and momentum.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Wed May 22, 2019 9:11 am
by flyingember
johnmatrix wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 8:27 am
FangKC wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 2:24 am
Pay no attention to polling. A bad rainstorm on Election Day could up-end this race.
True but Lucas seems to have the energy and momentum.
Energy and momentum doesn't matter, it's all about turnout. There's plenty of examples of people not voting because they felt their candidate was going to win so they don't need to make the effort.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Wed May 22, 2019 9:13 am
by WSPanic
johnmatrix wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 11:14 am
Critical_Mass wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 11:03 am
Hearing johnmatrix isn't a fan of Jolie Justus and no one cares...
The butthurt is strong with this one.
Must we?
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Wed May 22, 2019 10:19 am
by johnmatrix
flyingember wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 9:11 am
johnmatrix wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 8:27 am
FangKC wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 2:24 am
Pay no attention to polling. A bad rainstorm on Election Day could up-end this race.
True but Lucas seems to have the energy and momentum.
Energy and momentum doesn't matter, it's all about turnout. There's plenty of examples of people not voting because they felt their candidate was going to win so they don't need to make the effort.
It totally matters. If folks arent excited they arent going to show especially for a local election.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Thu May 23, 2019 6:55 pm
by mean
I'm not following this race very closely, it seems to me that we have two good options and I don't really care that much, but just so I'm clear on the current rag dynamic: is the poster people were lambasting as a racist elsewhere basically the only person rooting for the black guy to win? Or have I got something twisted?
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Thu May 23, 2019 8:17 pm
by DaveKCMO
Basically the two candidates are nearly identical on their voting records, so it comes down to character and leadership style. Most of us aren't on here saying "Lucas is losing" but one (new-ish) poster is saying "Justus is losing" so we're pretty much all reacting to that fakey Remington push-poll rhetoric.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Thu May 23, 2019 9:50 pm
by KCPowercat
Seems very bot like in the approach. Definitely not a bot but trying to drive division and doubt while prroviding no real insight.
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 8:20 am
by johnmatrix
mean wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 6:55 pm
I'm not following this race very closely, it seems to me that we have two good options and I don't really care that much, but just so I'm clear on the current rag dynamic: is the poster people were lambasting as a racist elsewhere basically the only person rooting for the black guy to win? Or have I got something twisted?
This site while informative on new projects is a haven for big money in Kansas City. Many are associated with developers in town so have skin in the game. If you'll notice I have a different opinion on some issues but they never address said points. Instead they go for character assassination IE: Racist, Bot, Etc. It's much easier for them to do this than admit being wrong because thats potential free money they will be losing once the political tide turns and they are beginning to with Justus down in the polls. Again notice how there's been a few polls released and somehow said poll is a Republican conspiracy. Why the hell would a Republican pollster slant polling for Lucas who IMO is a far left politician?
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 8:31 am
by Riverite
johnmatrix wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2019 8:20 am
mean wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 6:55 pm
I'm not following this race very closely, it seems to me that we have two good options and I don't really care that much, but just so I'm clear on the current rag dynamic: is the poster people were lambasting as a racist elsewhere basically the only person rooting for the black guy to win? Or have I got something twisted?
This site while informative on new projects is a haven for big money in Kansas City. Many are associated with developers in town so have skin in the game. If you'll notice I have a different opinion on some issues but they never address said points. Instead they go for character assassination IE: Racist, Bot, Etc. It's much easier for them to do this than admit being wrong because thats potential free money they will be losing once the political tide turns and they are beginning to with Justus down in the polls. Again notice how there's been a few polls released and somehow said poll is a Republican conspiracy. Why the hell would a Republican pollster slant polling for Lucas who IMO is a far left politician?
Im sure some people on this site are developers or associated with, I would be surprised if anywhere near half were. Lots are just development nerds. My guess as to why people have an issue with Lucas, and this is my problem with him too. He keeps saying he wants to make more affordable housing, but he has no idea how to do it, and just feels like companies that are looking to do it will make it for him. He is basically virtue signaling everyone who feels like Kansas City has an affordability issue. He also clearly has no idea how cities work, because when they Justus says she wants a department of transportation, he makes a wise crack like a kid about pot holes. I think ultimately he would be fine, but he has no fresh ideas and would probably slow the City’s growth. I don’t even live in Kansas City I’m not in development. So there is a refutable point to why someone may not like him. Lucas isn’t far left he is just unimaginative
Re: Next Mayor 2019
Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 8:44 am
by johnmatrix
Riverite wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2019 8:31 am
johnmatrix wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2019 8:20 am
mean wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 6:55 pm
I'm not following this race very closely, it seems to me that we have two good options and I don't really care that much, but just so I'm clear on the current rag dynamic: is the poster people were lambasting as a racist elsewhere basically the only person rooting for the black guy to win? Or have I got something twisted?
This site while informative on new projects is a haven for big money in Kansas City. Many are associated with developers in town so have skin in the game. If you'll notice I have a different opinion on some issues but they never address said points. Instead they go for character assassination IE: Racist, Bot, Etc. It's much easier for them to do this than admit being wrong because thats potential free money they will be losing once the political tide turns and they are beginning to with Justus down in the polls. Again notice how there's been a few polls released and somehow said poll is a Republican conspiracy. Why the hell would a Republican pollster slant polling for Lucas who IMO is a far left politician?
Im sure some people on this site are developers or associated with, I would be surprised if anywhere near half were. Lots are just development nerds. My guess as to why people have an issue with Lucas, and this is my problem with him too. He keeps saying he wants to make more affordable housing, but he has no idea how to do it, and just feels like companies that are looking to do it will make it for him. He is basically virtue signaling everyone who feels like Kansas City has an affordability issue. He also clearly has no idea how cities work, because when they Justus says she wants a department of transportation, he makes a wise crack like a kid about pot holes. I think ultimately he would be fine, but he has no fresh ideas and would probably slow the City’s growth. I don’t even live in Kansas City I’m not in development. So there is a refutable point to why someone may not like him. Lucas isn’t far left he is just unimaginative
You would think with the economy booming and all the apartments being built in the metro area eventually the market will settle down and prices will become more affordable. I give Lucas credit for atleast trying to discuss new issues it's getting people to pay attention. The current mayor had became stale and too one track minded on development.