KCRag Forum

I'm with you, shout it from the rooftops, live blog it daily.

HIding it seems dangerous to the general public.

More reason contact tracing in US may not be doable.

I see no stigma related to it. Let everyone know

Stigma may be associated with behavior before/after symptoms. People will judge each other if you spread it due to not taking no-contact seriously. I can see finger pointing and blaming people

kas1 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:05 am Incidentally, what I've read is that unspecified people in the White House have been drafting plans for gradually easing restrictions in some sort of common-sense way by starting with low-risk jobs and then progressing from there as long as the situation remains stable. However, the Cheeto rejects these proposals out of hand and wants an all-or-nothing approach. There's pretty much only one way to completely fuck this situation up, so of course that is what we will get if the states don't continue to control the narrative.

Actually the highest risk jobs are currently working. I would like to see the statistics of healthcare workers, convenience and grocery workers exposure to this virus. If you are not being exposed at a c-store why would you be at a higher risk at an office or factory?

This morning the IMHE projection reported Missouri peaking a month earlier April 19th, it was mid May last week. The bed count looks fine.

I believe it had already peaked in early February being called by my doctor the “Strange Flu”.

Another puzzle is the disappearing “Vaping Illness” the CDC website shows the symptoms as very similar to COVID.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in intensive care after coronavirus condition ‘worsened’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/uk-prim ... sened.html

zlohban wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:24 pm

kas1 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:05 am Incidentally, what I've read is that unspecified people in the White House have been drafting plans for gradually easing restrictions in some sort of common-sense way by starting with low-risk jobs and then progressing from there as long as the situation remains stable. However, the Cheeto rejects these proposals out of hand and wants an all-or-nothing approach. There's pretty much only one way to completely fuck this situation up, so of course that is what we will get if the states don't continue to control the narrative.

Actually the highest risk jobs are currently working. I would like to see the statistics of healthcare workers, convenience and grocery workers exposure to this virus. If you are not being exposed at a c-store why would you be at a higher risk at an office or factory?

This morning the IMHE projection reported Missouri peaking a month earlier April 19th, it was mid May last week. The bed count looks fine.

I believe it had already peaked in early February being called by my doctor the “Strange Flu”.

Another puzzle is the disappearing “Vaping Illness” the CDC website shows the symptoms as very similar to COVID.

I didn't mean for low-risk jobs to be interpreted so narrowly -- I was referring more to a risk:reward analysis of the industry as a whole. EG, nightclubs would be the very last thing to reopen, even if the employees themselves were just as protected as a typical store worker.

earthling wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:25 am Contact Tracing is ideal but is any state actually able to pull it off?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21I324

The health director for Ridgefield, Connecticut, says there is no way that he and his staff of two can identify and isolate all the people who have interacted with an infected patient, not at the rate cases are multiplying across the town.

“Tracing exposures of exposures of exposures. It’s just impossible,” Briggs said. “The cases are to the point where we can’t possibly trace everybody back now.”

edit: Oregon claims they are trying but ultimately are not...

But the health officials in charge did not communicate with all Oregonians who had a positive test let alone all of their close connections, the newsroom found.

And after publicly touting the monitoring system as a way to keep tabs on the spread of coronavirus and help protect people, state officials abruptly stopped reporting a key set of tracking numbers without explanation.

It's very frustrating to argue with you because I don't feel like you actually address my arguments head-on. I never said that we'd be able to implement contact tracing right now. Literally my entire argument was that we need to work to create conditions where contact tracing can be effective.

kas1 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:05 am
I didn't mean for low-risk jobs to be interpreted so narrowly -- I was referring more to a risk:reward analysis of the industry as a whole. EG, nightclubs would be the very last thing to reopen, even if the employees themselves were just as protected as a typical store worker.

No criticism, I just think the current working population would be a good sample to use to determine our risk which I believe is low if everyone uses simple safety measures.

kas1 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:13 pm
It's very frustrating to argue with you because I don't feel like you actually address my arguments head-on. I never said that we'd be able to implement contact tracing right now. Literally my entire argument was that we need to work to create conditions where contact tracing can be effective.

tracing people is only effective when someone knows they came into contact with someone with a virus.


sampling and actions based on risk levels is a much better method. for a virus with a potential 14 day incubation contact tracing could span into thousands of people (think a grocery store) and each of them spans to 1000s more.

"if you went to walmart yesterday" is much more effective and will remain this way

kas1 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:13 pmLiterally my entire argument was that we need to work to create conditions where contact tracing can be effective.

My response head on was that the US as a whole likely can't effectively pull off contract tracing at *any* point due to cultural and discipline differences vs. Asia - the two links provided were examples why. And that blitzing enough PPE for workforce along with testing could help cautiously bring workforce back faster (do not support Trump's reckless approach).

Moving on.. Jobless claims may hit 8M for this week for a total of 18M in 3 weeks.

If the case nearly 10 years of jobs gains will be lost/furloughed in just 3 weeks, if not highly likely within 4 weeks. Many also struggle to file a claim in several states including MO so could pile on later.

US Employment in thousands, red block showing if down 18M...

earthling wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:02 pmMy point head on was that the US as a whole likely can't effectively pull off contract tracing at *any* point due to cultural and discipline differences vs. Asia

Contact tracing is not some sort of rocket surgery that was just invented by aliens in Korea. It's a standard part of containing an outbreak of any disease. That's why local health officials in the US immediately started doing it even without any direction from the federal government. Your entire defeatist attitude is that it can't be done perfectly, so therefore it shouldn't be done at all. Any level of success at all is better than not even trying. R only has to be held below 1 in order for the virus to eventually die off, which allows for a pretty significant margin of error. And it's not hard to believe that most people would immediately go get themselves tested if they find out they've been exposed to someone who is infected. The majority of the work that's needed for contact tracing is making the tests available and telling the public what to do. Something like 80% of the transmission in China was reportedly between family members (though it wouldn't surprise me if that figure is inflated a bit due to missed cases). I refuse to believe that there's some sort of "cultural difference" that will cause Americans to not want to get tested when others in the family are sick.

As a reminder, this whole tangent got started because you were talking about doing mass quantities of random tests. Doing mass quantities of tests on people most likely to be exposed is going to identify a lot more of the infected people and would probably actually be easier to implement.

^Hope you're right but we need to find creative ways to get workforce back as so far there's no sign of contact tracing effectively in place in US yet or when this started. And you're saying we shouldn't start until conditions are right, right? We need to find other ways to get workforce back, not wait for conditions to be right for contact tracing that may not be broadly doable in US anyway. The CDC did do a good job with Ebola and Zika entering US but had an early grasp. This is obviously a different beast given many can carry with no symptoms and yes, the West is culturally different than Asia's compliance society vs West individuality so likely harder to pull off. The links provided were examples of govt lack of capabilities as well.

I refuse to believe that there's some sort of "cultural difference"

I got it that you refuse to believe on cultural differences being a factor, we disagree and that's fine.

Is there a period of time where posts can be edited without having the message that says they've been edited? This is not the first time I've written a lengthy reply and then scrapped it when I see in the preview window that your post has been completely rewritten.

The conditions for contact tracing being effective are largely the same as the conditions for letting people go back to work -- there needs to be a great reduction in the number of active cases. That should have the direct result of freeing up a lot of testing capacity and removing the existing backlog.

The links you provided had nothing to do with contact tracing not being effective here -- obviously the whole thing was doomed from the start when it takes a week or more just to get the lab results back, assuming you're even allowed to submit the tests at all.

There's no great rush to get the workforce back -- most of what "the economy" produces is completely superfluous. Basic necessities can be provided with just a small number of workers, and one way or another we can find a way to distribute food to everyone and prevent evictions, etc. The priority should be to ensure that things are actually okay once people do go back to work so that we don't just end up right back in the same situation again. In the long run, saving lives and preserving the economy go hand in hand. As long as the virus is uncontained there's not going to be many people working.

There's no great rush to get the workforce back -- most of what "the economy" produces is completely superfluous.

Wow, OK.

Maybe we should just shut this thread down. All I know is that I will keep supporting local businesses and ordering take out and getting local beer cause I care about the local community, pretty much the only reason why I joined this thread. Is that okay Kas1? Can I order take out and get beer delivered or do I need stay holed in like Wuhan and let the government drop off food for me. "Im from the government and I'm here to help."

Live tracker: How many coronavirus cases have been reported in each U.S. state?

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2 ... uu2ClHA3CI

S Korea not exactly back to normal despite not having a full lockdown and virus spreading at low levels...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveprice ... dd77bb760e

But eliminating the virus completely is a different matter. And in an effort to get those hundred-odd new cases a day down to zero, South Korea has actually increased its restrictions despite the virus appearing to be under control.

Will be interesting to see what levels are determined to be needed here and harder hit countries in order to lift lockdown, open borders and the long term impact. Such as if most who can work from home continue to, will that become a new norm and office market hit hard long term as lease renewals are adjusted?

Fears coronavirus can reactivate as 51 recovered patients test positive again
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... is-johnson

...or perhaps not re-infections and were false negatives that slipped through, which is no more comforting.