KCRag Forum

shaffe wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 4:01 pm To be clear propping up a single outlier poll from June 2020 (according to Wikipedia) as a strawman isn't remotely the same as a race that's been heavily polled

Lol I can pull up dozens of examples of them if you want. Dozens.

UMKC Roo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 4:15 pm Lol I can pull up dozens of examples of them if you want. Dozens.

Yet you led with a low credibility example.

shaffe wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 4:39 pm

UMKC Roo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 4:15 pm Lol I can pull up dozens of examples of them if you want. Dozens.

Yet you led with a low credibility example.

I just sorta thought it was common knowledge. Even most Dems involved in politics know it.

shaffe wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 4:01 pm

UMKC Roo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 1:02 pm

shaffe wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 11:54 am Meanwhile Oklahoma and Texas, two absolute Republican strongholds, see incumbent Governors polling with single digit leads. Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona, and Georgia are all polling extremely close but I wouldn't categorize any of those states as "blue" at all.

Okay...let's be clear here. The polling shows it close for Dems every single cycle and it's usually always over-polling Dem voters. With the exception of a few rare states, the GOP is always getting shafted in the polling.

I recall in 2020 they Arkansas only having Trump up by 2. Everyone laughed that "Trump is only up 2 in Arkansas!" but the real joke was people who believed the poll.

To be clear propping up a single outlier poll from June 2020 (according to Wikipedia) as a strawman isn't remotely the same as a race that's been heavily polled on a deeply polarizing Greg Abbot. I don't think either race will break in favor of Democrats but it should be really damn concerning to the GOP that either one is remotely close. If (when?) the GOP loses Texas on a federal level that'll probably be the end of their electoral chances - but that's a completely different discussion. I have no idea what the heck is happening in Oklahoma or even if the recent polling is legitimate but let's also be clear about how every single election the last 6 months has gone. Until actual results start coming in it's all speculation but it wouldn't shock me at all if Abbot fails to clear even 53%.

The texas race is interesting. Especially over the gun issue where you have someone who has said they'd take guns away and impose serious restrictions Vs a pro-gun candidate. For me, Beto is so clearly a poser who jumps on issues after they happen and I find him to be pathetic and like a little brat. His positive polling could be driven by the younger crowd who think he's "cool" while not knowing a single policy position of his. I've not read the polls so that's pure speculation on my part.

I've been reading all the polls and stories, this is going to be fun to watch. If you're into politics, watching the live coverage will be like watching sports.

Polling companies are already hedging bets in the event they're wrong. It's just too close on many of this big races.

Davids looks like she's holding up all right in the newly drawn KS 3rd

FlippantCitizen wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:58 pm Davids looks like she's holding up all right in the newly drawn KS 3rd

I’m only seeing the 1% reporting, so not going to make any calls yet, but fingers crossed

ABC news results showing 48% reporting. Davids with 95,000 votes (61%) and Adkins with 59,000 votes (38%).

Kelly showing strength too. Have previously discussed Kansas continuing gradual blue trend on this forum. One of AlkaliAxel's hot takes that he would stan for. I agreed pretty stongly. Where you at Alkali? Missing my dose of your hot takes.

Fountains wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:46 pm

FlippantCitizen wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:24 pm Kelly showing strength too. Have previously discussed Kansas continuing gradual blue trend on this forum. One of AlkaliAxel's hot takes that he would stan for. I agreed pretty stongly. Where you at Alkali? Missing my dose of your hot takes.

He claimed all of Kansas would turn blue.

Eventually.

Moran won easily

How come the Democrats don't really have celebrities/former athletes/actors that run? The only one I can think of is Al Franken, if they had a Matthew McConaughey run in Texas I think he would do a lot better then Beto

Just off the top of my head the GOP has had Trump, Dr Oz, H Walker, heath shuler, Steve largent, Regan, Arnold, sonny bono,

This sent me down a Wikipedia rabbit hole where I learned Jerry Springer was the 56th mayor of Cincinnati

Pretty exciting night for politic junkies. Lots of results to dive into and review all over the place.

Missouri
Seems like Democrats made a little ground in Missouri. Trudy Busch is doing better than Nicole Galloway did and Democrats picked up some State House seats, but not much to change the majority status of the Republicans.

Amendment 3 (legalization of recreational marijuana), is at 53.4% yes with 74% in. I opposed this amendment because I think the 6% sales tax is too low. I wanted it high enough to get rid of, or significantly reduced, personal property tax. I'm not opposed to recreational marijuana, just this measure.

Amendment 4 passed by a wide margin (63%).

Kansas
Can anyone explain to me how a guy like Jerry Moran can win, but not Derek Schmidt.I get split ticket votes, but this doesn't make sense. He got more votes than Laura Kelly did and a larger margin of victory.

Sharice Davids was re-elected. I haven't seen many people too shocked about that. I've heard lots of good about her from Republicans and Democrats.

Nationwide
Not a Red wave at all like some pundits were saying. It's also not that big of a pickup compared to other first-term midterm elections.

DeSantis is going to run in 2024 and think he would have a better chance of winning then Trump. He is only 44, having a young nationally known politician will be a huge advantage going forward for the GOP.
If Desantis does run I could see a blowout in 2024 vs Biden

Trump is already threatening to release dirt on DeSantis. I imagine Roger Stone has been amassing dirt on DeSantis since he was a Congressman. Watch for Trump to start diminishing DeSantis from now on like he did to Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.

Donald Trump Threatens to Expose Dirt on Ron DeSantis

https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-tr ... n-desantis

Can't wait for this. Should be fun following this Trump the Chump trail of Illigal doings.

Desantis is such a better option than Trump for the GOP but Trump won’t go away.

Only real WTF for me this election is Fetterman winning. How can a man clearly not medically fit to serve win. I feel bad for him as I’m guessing he had powerful people pushing him to stay in it at all costs despite his health.

People recover from strokes. Fetterman seems like he will fight to recover his health. There are sitting senators, and other candidates, that might be more cognitively impaired than Fetterman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ff9han7ELwg

FangKC wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:47 am People recover from strokes. Fetterman seems like he will fight to recover his health. There are sitting senators, and other candidates, that might be more cognitively impaired than Fetterman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ff9han7ELwg

He hasn’t been healthy his entire life from what I can gather. The few people I know who have had mild strokes are not the same and still suffer from issues that impact everyday life. Especially memory. Hope he recovers fully but still odd they pushed him.