Hotel Overbuilding?

[earthling]

^Hopefully but the longer this goes on, the more virtual approach has opportunity to improve. Companies can save a great deal by sending just one to conference and others virtual. I wouldn't make any bets - there are better bets to make with more upside than this uncertainty. And given online technology has disrupted countless industries (book stores, record stores, taxi service, video stores, etc etc etc) I wouldn't count out convention industry from being impacted long term. Not 100% but perhaps 30% or more.

[KCPowercat]

Everybody hates virtual. it's not going to continue.

[earthling]

^Managers who have a budget decide how many go to a conference. If virtual hybrid is good enough, will likely continue to some degree with fewer sent to conference. We'll see. Would be foolish to make a bet on it either way given significant uncertainty relative to other bets to make (as a PE investor who studies such things daily). With the exception of one exceptional hotel operator, I've pulled out of the hotel industry early on.

[KCPowercat]

Yeah I know. Virtual isn't good enough. There is your data point to study from someone who decides how that budget money is used.

[earthling]

^Hah, anecdata. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. As a player in industry, not placing any further bets myself.

[KCPowercat]

Hearing the same from those booking and selling in person conferences. Planners are getting horrible feedback from virtual conferences and people want back in person asap.

Nobody is talking or asking for you to "bet' on it though. Your position is clear playa

[earthling]

Yeah you may be right if it's never 'good enough' but the longer this goes on, the more opportunity to improve virtual hybrid approach over time. Sometimes tech that replaced older methods weren't necessarily better but typically more convenient and/or cost effective. IE, lossy compressed streaming music isn't technically better than CD's (audiophile wise) but much more convenient for consumers and cheaper to deploy for producers. The question is will virtual/physical hybrid conferences *eventually* get to point of 'good enough' relative to cost savings for companies sending attendees. The savings being cost of hotel/travel/meals/time relative to the effectiveness of physically being there or not. Could be enough to be a 30% or more hit to industry long term. More likely conferences that are centered around ideas/information, not say, physical product engagement.

Too early to make any claims either way. But safe to say we won't see 100% all physically attended conferences as we won't see virtual hybrid completely disappear. The question is will there be enough virtual hybrid continuing that impacts the travel/hotel industry long term, especially as next generation more easily adjusts to virtual/remote interaction in other ways as well.

[normalthings]

Virtual meeting tech is good enough. People just struggle to pay attention or get anything out of it in my experience.

[earthling]

^The way conference material is presented virtually may have to adapt to maintain attention and become more effective as well. Including even true VR headsets at some point or something not yet thought of.

Would think it will stick long term to some degree and in some form. The more often hybrid is offered companies may send say 1-2 instead of planned 3 and then signup 2-5 more virtually for same cost given lower travel costs. To conference organizers that's more heads and worth doing more often if they can pull off virtual experience 'good enough' to be worth it. The question isn't really will virtual hybrid fail (it might but I doubt it), it's to what degree it will impact travel industry.

[DaveKCMO]

There are great virtual meetings and LOTS of bad in-person meetings. Hybrid is rarely done well, but people are getting better.

If you're just doing panels, presentations and Q&A then keep it virtual. If you are in need of networking or team-building, that works best in person.

Wasn't the meeting industry already in decline before the pandemic?

[KCPowercat]

The dabble into virtual is showing many people how valuable in person is. Not to mention how expensive it is to pull of hybrid "good enough" from a meeting planner perspective.

[earthling]

^Too early to judge yet when still a nascent 1.0 concept. If it matures to 3.0, could have a different impact. When WFH started ages ago it only worked for a few types of roles, now it can be applied to most any desk role that sits in front of a laptop. Now HR has onboarding processes perfected for it.

[DaveKCMO]

People will judge with their feet, I guess. Our main regional industry conference (held in STL this year) was poorly attended. Lots of cancellations at the last minute. Nonprofit groups can't go on like that forever.

[KCPowercat]

This isn't going anywhere.

[chaglang]

The point of most of the conferences I've been to have not been the presentations or meetings. It's been the informal conversations and networking. Virtual can't replace that.

[flyingember]

The point of most of the conferences I've been to have not been the presentations or meetings. It's been the informal conversations and networking. Virtual can't replace that.

There's a lot within events that require being there too. I bet a lot of events will shift to in person + paid remote + paid access to content afterwards. The hybrid model does work for a lot of events if you're more interested in learning/training. There's a lot of tech conference content on youtube.

A huge tech event like CES being able to touch a lot new hardware in a short time is a big deal.

An event like Comic-Con the outfits is central to the event and so many smaller actors make money at paid signings and people pay because they get to meet that person

There's a big event on magic in Las Vegas this week. You can see magic on TV but it's not the same.

Similar idea with a gem and jewelry show, a gun show, a model train exhibit an RV or car show. You go to see what you're interested in.

[KCPowercat]

This conversation has nothing to do with car or rv shows.

[earthling]

The point of most of the conferences I've been to have not been the presentations or meetings. It's been the informal conversations and networking. Virtual can't replace that.

For those who lean extroverted especially. Introverts less likely so, who typically like to network online. So if a manager sends the social extrovert on team physically and the 2 introverts virtually, the manager probably gets better bang for buck than sending all 3. WFH also more appealing to introverts than extroverts. The meetings/conventions won't go away of course, just may shift with the times/situation. And many conventions/meetings attendance were declining before COVID outside fan-based anyway, including CES decline.

[flyingember]

This conversation has nothing to do with car or rv shows.

Except that they're relevant too on returning to an environment of filled hotel rooms. I really doubt most people are happy with virtual car shows.
https://www.autoweek.com/car-life/event ... hows-2020/

I would agree with the hybrid model taking over as a general concept. Something where you don't *need* to be there like a meeting of insurance brokers could do very well virtual.

KC could have an opportunity in this market where conventions will go looking for smaller locations that cost less.

[FangKC]

Half the reason for these events is not being mentioned. There are some people who like going to other cities just to get away from their daily life. They like staying in a hotel away from their spouse and kids, significant other, or roommate for a couple of days. They like eating out. They like exploring a new city during their "off" hours. Some like the opportunity to drink too much and have an affair. They like getting out of the office for a few days, back when being in the office was still a thing.