TIME TO FREAK OUT AGAIN ABOUT CONFERENCE REALIGNMENT! THE BIG 12 IS DEAD! MAYBE!

[AlkaliAxel]

We’re screwed.

KU is already reaching out to go to the Big 10. Half the remaining schools are trying to get the PAC-12. This might end up with K-State being left out in the cold to join either the Mountain West or a watered-down version of the Big 12.

Kansas City is the biggest loser in this, no doubt. And it sucks. The Big 12 tournament might remain, but with vastly different schools. And it won’t drive anywhere near as much revenue or buzz because without KU, K-State, ISU, etc. the locals won’t be coming to watch. It’s really terrible.

My last thought is that I can see college sports viewing diminish in KC even more than it already has been.

It’s NBA or bust now for KC basketball. College was the only thing we had and that’s gone.

[AlkaliAxel]

KU probably gonna become a more National university out of this though. Elevates their status, alot more money coming in now.

I also think this move from college sports shows NBA is about to expand really soon too. They’re doing all of this to overcome shortfalls from COVID.

[KC_JAYHAWK]

According to this article, KU comes in at #28 nationally for revenue from sports. That is 3rd in the Big12 behind TX and OU. But with a decent football program, KU would move up. I can only hope KU football can become respectable again. I mean, we won the Orange bowl in 2008 and the NCAA basketball tournament, so things can only go up. .

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

[tskev]

I am no expert, but, in my opinion, college sports is about to drastically change. Initially, 4 super conferences forming seems plausible (16 colleges each), but I think the end game is bigger. We might be about to see one giant mega-conference formed with the NCAA dissolved, though they may take a few years after this current re-alignment. I just don’t know if it makes sense for the Big 10, ACC, Pac12 to add Big 12 teams right now, just for the sake of getting to 16. If there isn't a clear, immediate path to those colleges adding immediate value, then why? I believe the current Big 10 tv payout is $55M to each school. I am a KU grad, but there's no way the Jayhawks add that right now, though there is the path for growth if football can right the ship. Texas and OU do that for the SEC, but it’s likely that adding any of the remaining colleges will dilute current revenue payouts. Conferences will have to be very picky with who they choose.

I think if the whole structure is changing, and all of the agreements are getting torn up, then it makes sense to add teams now. Maybe a 64 college conference with the best of the P5 schools. At that point though, why keep all of the current P5 schools? I doubt Vandy, Ole Miss, etc... are adding to the SEC bottom line. They're just there because they've always been there. Same goes for Rutgers (which is widely acknowledged as a mistake that they were added to the Big 10), Purdue, Northwestern, and of course the Big 12 leftovers. Some of those teams have had decent years recently, but right now it's about the overall brand and the investment going forward.

Additionally, if this happens, the NCAA tourney gets rebranded and may be restructured. Its ~$1B (and eventually more) revenue gets divided mostly amongst the 64 or fewer teams instead of 300+ colleges (there would probably be some kind of invite to the non-power league schools to keep the tourney excitement going). In this scenario, prime basketball schools become almost as valuable as football schools (good news for KU). Non-revenue sports at the have-not schools get decimated in the process without the shared funding. College sports are essentially killed, and we get glorified minor leagues. With old rivalries ended, much of what brings passion to college sports (bragging rights, potential cinderella upsets, etc…) is no longer there. Personally, I might still watch my teams, but at that point, I would probably stick mostly to the NFL because the quality will be higher (I don't currently watch the NBA).

I can imagine many schools shutting down, or getting bailed out as well. The facilities arms race has trickled into the G5 schools, and a lot of these places will become like D2-D3 schools that struggle to fund their athletic operation. Additionally, I think many schools will realize that it's not in their mission to own glorified minor league teams, and will shut them down themselves. Add the Covid deficits and the hits could be coming soon. The next couple of weeks could have a long-lasting, unprecedented impact on both college and professional sports.

[gsmith601]

I am sure Nebraska will push hard to get KU admitted to the Big 10. Hard to get a feel for who else they'd bring in. If you were going by athletic success, especially recently it would be Iowa State, but they are in a low population state that already has a team in conference. Not sure if the Big 10 would look at Okie State. Some talk of TCU but man they are so far out of the blueprint of the conference.

Everyone rights off Notre Dame but one thing that is changed is Notre Dame is falling so far behind in TV and media money. They used to be competitive in the money they made from TV but not anymore and the gap is seriously widening.

Greg

[brewcrew1000]

Too bad the SEC couldn't just kick Mizzou and A&M back to the Big 12, like Mizzou and A&M really add anything to the SEC to begin with

[AlkaliAxel]

After reading some of the reports this morning from ESPN, it doesn't seem like Big 10 is that eager to add KU (or anyone else for that matter). If they did, it would be years before we hear about it. Big 10 isn't going to "add just to add schools" to keep up with the SEC. Adding a school like KU would be a financial drain because they'd be adding a horrific football program to split the pie more with. It would be a loss for Big 10 to do that. KU may have the interest in joining, but the conference doesn't yet.

KU's better options might be to get into the PAC-12, where they would be more level with the other schools and it seems would be accepted unlike the Big 10.

K-State seems to be left out of the woods and possibly destined to join the Mountain West, since even the PAC-12 is struggling to justify them.

For KU, my guess it's all going to be hinging on if their football program can improve in the next few years. My guess is also Big 10 is not going to rush this decision, and they will evaluate over several years who is worthy to join, on the rise, etc. and may not add anyone at all.

[Highlander]

I would not give up on KU just yet. Unless the P5 conferences start raiding each other (e.g., the B1G going after Virginia), KU remains probably the most viable school out there for P5 expansion. The B1G took Nebraska which is failing in that conference. While they had some football prowess (then), Kansas has a third again more people than Nebraska and the prestigious AAU status. Their basketball program is a proven revenue generator and KU has consistently ranked in the top 30 revenues for AD's. Most pundits seem to believe that the Pac12 and B1G will eventually expand to 16 teams each (and probably sooner than later).

[beautyfromashes]

Unless the P5 conferences start raiding each other (e.g., the B1G going after Virginia), KU remains probably the most viable school out there for P5.

That’s exactly what’s going to happen. SEC will work to build a superconferenc. The B1G, ACC and Pac12 will now be the conferences to raid instead of the one raiding. Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Clemson (they’ll leave next) and eventually ND. It’s going to be war.

[KCtoBrooklyn]

This is just the opinion of some random sports writers, but it seems like the articles/tweets/chatter I have seen don't seem to rate Kansas too high on the list for the Big10.

Here is the opinion of one writer, who ranked KU and ISU behind 5 other schools:

Kansas and Iowa State: Addition mostly for the sake of addition. Iowa State would be a fine Big Ten member and would fit in better than Maryland, Nebraska and Rutgers did at the time those schools hopped aboard. But the Cyclones don’t bring anything to the table the Big Ten does not already have. Kansas has a bit more curb appeal with its nationally-prominent men’s basketball program, but the Jayhawks have an abysmal football program, a proclivity for scandal and little institutional regard for the NCAA rulebook — something that could be hard for the Big Ten to accept. Throwing the best two Big 12 schools left standing a life raft would be charitable, but not necessarily profitable.

It does seem like conference realignment is coming at a bad time for KU with the ongoing NCAA investigations and the football dumpster fire turning into an inferno.

Another argument against KU to the Big 10 that I have seen is the lack of wrestling, hockey, and some other sports that most Big 10 schools field.

[Highlander]

Unless the P5 conferences start raiding each other (e.g., the B1G going after Virginia), KU remains probably the most viable school out there for P5.

That’s exactly what’s going to happen. SEC will work to build a superconferenc. The B1G, ACC and Pac12 will now be the conferences to raid instead of the one raiding. Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Clemson (they’ll leave next) and eventually ND. It’s going to be war.

I suppose that could happen and some people are predicting that. Frankly, I don't see the point of a conference with more than 16 teams. In the current 14 team SEC, Missouri rarely plays any given team from the west division in football with the exception of Arkansas. With 16 or more teams, the conference becomes essentially a loose business association. If the SEC starts to include more big programs like FSU or Clemson or even Michigan and tOSU, it has to make room for these by losing some longstanding teams in the conference. What would happen to the MSU's and Vanderbilt's? or Mizzou and Arkansas?

My personal gut feeling is that the other big conferences will expand. It's all happening at a bad time for KU but KU's basketball program is probably the most valuable athletic entity surviving in the B12 (unless they get hit super hard by the NCAA). The other wild card is how the NIL rules impact college sports. Frankly, I think these will further enrich the "haves" at the expense of the "have nots".

[aknowledgeableperson]

"The other wild card is how the NIL rules impact college sports."

That is the BIG unknown at this time. NIL changes recruiting big time. Top athletes will go to programs where they feel they will get the most publicity with more publicity meaning more money. Some are speculating elite athletes will command NIL revenues well into the 6 figures. And conference TV contracts will play a big part in that game.

Personally I don't see conferences dropping schools, afterall winning schools do need somewhat guaranteed conference wins. Many seem to speculate that when the shakeout ends there will be 4 big time conferences with 16 teams each. And forget about the NCAA championship, it will be like the NIT in college basketball. Those four conferences will have their own tournament, or even tournaments,
so they don't have to share TV revenues with a bunch of lesser schools and conferences.

[AlkaliAxel]

This is just the opinion of some random sports writers, but it seems like the articles/tweets/chatter I have seen don't seem to rate Kansas too high on the list for the Big10.

Here is the opinion of one writer, who ranked KU and ISU behind 5 other schools:

Kansas and Iowa State: Addition mostly for the sake of addition. Iowa State would be a fine Big Ten member and would fit in better than Maryland, Nebraska and Rutgers did at the time those schools hopped aboard. But the Cyclones don’t bring anything to the table the Big Ten does not already have. Kansas has a bit more curb appeal with its nationally-prominent men’s basketball program, but the Jayhawks have an abysmal football program, a proclivity for scandal and little institutional regard for the NCAA rulebook — something that could be hard for the Big Ten to accept. Throwing the best two Big 12 schools left standing a life raft would be charitable, but not necessarily profitable.

It does seem like conference realignment is coming at a bad time for KU with the ongoing NCAA investigations and the football dumpster fire turning into an inferno.

Another argument against KU to the Big 10 that I have seen is the lack of wrestling, hockey, and some other sports that most Big 10 schools field.

This guy is correct. It hasn't been the opinion of one sports journalist saying this either, the sentiment has been there among several prominent analysts that KU isn't quite enough for the Big 10. Which, I also think, is a good thing for KU fans.

KU is much more on level with Pac-12. Not quite as powerful as Big 10 schools, but enough to where KU could make them money and fit in. Kansas is even partially in the Mountain Time Zone too, so it has some western ties. It seems like a mutual fit.

I think this is good for KU fans because they'd get smashed in the Big 10 whereas in the PAC they'd be more palpable to watch.

[WoodDraw]

I think conferences In basketball will cooperate more after another football led realignment. I don't know if that hurts or helps Kansas.

Eventually they're going to start killing sports if you never play the teams you care about anymore.

The NBA might come in and start playing a bigger role in development too.

[aknowledgeableperson]

KU is much more on level with Pac-12. Not quite as powerful as Big 10 schools, but enough to where KU could make them money and fit in. Kansas is even partially in the Mountain Time Zone too, so it has some western ties. It seems like a mutual fit.

Most of the objections I see with the Pac12 and KU is most of the teams in Pac12 are in the Western Time Zone which means KU is two time zones away, bad for travel and TV. Also, as a market, is doesn't mean much of a media draw for audiences.

[AlkaliAxel]

KU is much more on level with Pac-12. Not quite as powerful as Big 10 schools, but enough to where KU could make them money and fit in. Kansas is even partially in the Mountain Time Zone too, so it has some western ties. It seems like a mutual fit.

Most of the objections I see with the Pac12 and KU is most of the teams in Pac12 are in the Western Time Zone which means KU is two time zones away, bad for travel and TV. Also, as a market, is doesn't mean much of a media draw for audiences.

Okay but within Mountain and Pacific time zone, they don't have many options to expand to. Next over in the Central time zone, even KU would be one of the largest available schools to bring in, maybe even the biggest one. You go any past Chicago and you're in the eastern time zone which I agree is crossing the line, and that's where the bulk of more schools are. I don't see the PAC-12 having many other options here if they want to keep up.

If everything goes like this though where PAC can't find much expansion, and Big 10 refuses to expand...maybe we do end up with a retained Big 12 with some more schools joining it? I think that might actually be where this train ends up since all the other options look crappy....which is why they made the Big 8/12 in the first place.

[beautyfromashes]

I really think the best thing for the Big 12 is to hold Texas and OU to playing in the conference until 2025 when they are free to go. Rival fans will make life miserable for them, rightfully. If they want to leave early, hold them to their large payout fighting with every lawyer you have.

[tskev]

As of right now, KU is the only remaining Big 12 school to not release a statement about Texas and OU leaving. The school statements released have all included two things: their disappointment in OU and Texas, and some kind of "belief" that the conference will work together to survive and/or stressing why their school is in a strong position moving forward. It's clear that none of the schools have a plan in place at the moment, which is why it is interesting that KU has not said anything.

[tskev]

The BIG is set to renew their broadcasting rights in 2 years so there isn't a reason to add a team today, but they might see big value in adding KU basketball to their winter scheduling. KU would probably also take a much lower payout for a few years just to secure their place. As mentioned above, KU is a top 30 revenue program, with a top 5 athletic apparel deal, and that is with a football team that is as bad as can be. This could be the time to buy low and bank on the growth.

Additionally, there is a ton of federal dollars in these research schools, so the conference might be seeing dollar signs elsewhere. KU Med is applying for Comprehensive NCI status this fall:

https://www.kumc.edu/news-listing-page/ ... tdown.html

[tskev]

https://twitter.com/domonic_neal/status ... 37153?s=19

Maybe things are heating up?