Politics

Come here to talk about topics that are not related to development, or even Kansas City.
flyingember
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Re: Politics

Post by flyingember » Thu Nov 01, 2018 12:31 pm

chrizow wrote:
Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:36 am
We continue to obtain proof every single day that Hillary Clinton's statement about "deplorables" may have been politically-inadvisable, but it was (and is) 100% accurate.

The thing I'm following is if the Republican claim that people grow more conservative with age. So far it's not clear that's the case.

If the electorate is growing more liberal, Clinton was not wrong, but that's a statement to make in a decade.

earthling
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Re: Politics

Post by earthling » Thu Nov 01, 2018 12:58 pm

The leanings of general population and political polls don't matter, what matters is who shows up to vote - and sometimes it's a distasteful comment/situation within days of election that drives certain factions to show up and others to stay home. GOP seems to have the default advantage (especially with more conservative churches now preaching politics and many places to vote in US are churches) - unless there is something that drives DEM leaning to get out to vote. Those who don't care about politics or don't want to impose their beliefs on others (mostly liberal leaning?) often don't show up to vote unless something specifically drives them to. Many younger voters particularly do not tend to show up for mid terms.

Will Trump's antics drive the usually apathetic to vote or rile up his followers even more? Will be interesting to see who shows up next week in the states/districts that matter.
Last edited by earthling on Thu Nov 01, 2018 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Politics

Post by earthling » Thu Nov 01, 2018 2:17 pm

Early voting passed 2014 so far but both parties are pulling in about same...
http://fortune.com/2018/11/01/early-vot ... -midterms/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... 4a5a65ccc8

Early voting tends to draw those typically politically engaged. The bigger question is for which 'side' casual/rare voters show up.

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grovester
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Re: Politics

Post by grovester » Thu Nov 01, 2018 4:34 pm

Everyone should be early voting and urging others to early vote as well.

Election day is going to be a complete cluster fuck.

bobbyhawks
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Re: Politics

Post by bobbyhawks » Thu Nov 01, 2018 5:47 pm

I'm lucky I'll be out of the state on Tuesday, since I get to early vote in Missouri because of that.

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Re: Politics

Post by nomadcowatbk » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:03 am


shinatoo
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Re: Politics

Post by shinatoo » Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:53 am

grovester wrote:
Thu Nov 01, 2018 4:34 pm
Everyone should be early voting and urging others to early vote as well.

Election day is going to be a complete cluster fuck.
There is no early voting in Missouri, only absentee voting.
Quocunque Jeceris Stabit

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grovester
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Re: Politics

Post by grovester » Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:57 am

Yes, I realized that after I posted. I think I forget since it seems unbelievable that it is still the case.

I think I would deliberately leave town every election.

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Re: Politics

Post by shinatoo » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:24 am

grovester wrote:
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:57 am
Yes, I realized that after I posted. I think I forget since it seems unbelievable that it is still the case.

I think I would deliberately leave town every election.
Or have plans to be out of town. How could you know that those plans would change?
Quocunque Jeceris Stabit

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taxi
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Re: Politics

Post by taxi » Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:28 am

shinatoo wrote:
Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:24 am
grovester wrote:
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:57 am
Yes, I realized that after I posted. I think I forget since it seems unbelievable that it is still the case.

I think I would deliberately leave town every election.
Or have plans to be out of town. How could you know that those plans would change?
Voter fraud!

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chrizow
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Re: Politics

Post by chrizow » Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:59 am

I just absentee-voted at Center High School and it was awesome. In and out in 15 min.

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Re: Politics

Post by earthling » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:44 pm

Would expect Trump to play/tweet many last minute cards Mon/Tue telling all what they want to hear. It's starting now with indication he'll 'make a deal with China' but would he follow through if Tue goes as he wants.

DEMs appear to be focused on health care.

A marketwatch.com report makes an interesting case that 'the angry' is who shows up to vote outside the regulars, especially the polarized. In 2016 it was the right leaning more angry and in 2018 it's the left leaning. But left leaning traditionally has more of an apathy problem when it comes to showing up even if intending to.

If Kansas goes DEM (Kelly, more of a moderate), could be the beginning of the end of the far right.

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Re: Politics

Post by FangKC » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:06 pm

No one knows what will happen until it does. The Democrats could fail to win back the House. Polls cannot be trusted, as they have been shown to be wrong. There are some analysts who believe that voters don't always answer truthfully to pollsters. Intention to vote is not voting. People intend to do a lot of things and then don't do them. It's a natural human process. I'm not holding out any hope that millennials, or Hispanics/Latinos, will turn out to vote in greater numbers than the past.

When I saw Nancy Pelosi on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert confidently saying the Dems would win back the House, I became very nervous about a repeat of 2016. Statements like that make voters think it's in the bag, and that they don't bother to go vote. That Pelosi did that on national TV is reason enough that she should be voted out of the House leadership.

Think millennials are woke? Only a third plan to definitely vote in the midterms, poll says

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... t0bEQ2JoVE

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Re: Politics

Post by phuqueue » Sat Nov 03, 2018 8:36 am

That USA Today article provides no context and so is extremely misleading. In absolute terms, only a third of Millennials voting sounds pretty bad. But midterm turnout in general is bad, and turnout among the same group in 2014 was less than 17%, so if a third of Millennials actually do vote this year, their turnout will have doubled compared to the last midterm.

And with early voting already well underway in a lot of states, we can actually see that youth turnout is surging compared to 2014.

I definitely agree that Dems shouldn't be lining up their ducks before they hatch (after all, Millennials aren't the only ones who are turning out), but it's journalistic malpractice to report that "a high number of Millennials" don't intend to vote without explaining that the number who do intend to vote is double the number who voted last time, especially when early voting results seem to be substantiating those surveys.

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Re: Politics

Post by FangKC » Sat Nov 03, 2018 8:44 pm

My worst fear is that a new generation of young white nationalists are showing up in the Millennial increase you cite. Ones that never bothered to vote before, but have been emboldened to by Trump dog whistles. Ones that have been sitting in their parents' basements until now. Some that weren't old enough to vote in 2016, but will now. I'm also worried the increase in midterm turnout might also include some older white nationalists who have been sitting out past elections.

In addition, just because registered Democrats are turning out doesn't mean they are voting for Democrats. Trump won because some Democrats voted for him. I worry that enough Democrats might stick with him, and cost McCaskill, Joe Manchin, Bill Nelson, Joe Donnelly, and Heidi Heitkamp their seats.

My worry is that this isn't traditional politics. My worry is that Trump has become their cult leader, and the spell is not yet broken.

https://psmag.com/news/the-least-analyt ... rted-trump

http://time.com/voices-from-democratic- ... p-won-big/

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grovester
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Re: Politics

Post by grovester » Sat Nov 03, 2018 9:16 pm

I dunno...I think everyone that got dog whistled voted in 2016.

I give some folks a pass for voting for him in 2016, change, Hillary, blah blah blah. I think a certain percentage of those folks realize they made a mistake.

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Re: Politics

Post by earthling » Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:28 am

Most industries supporting DEMS this election cycle, and they supported Obama's first cycle as well...
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2018/1 ... democrats/

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Re: Politics

Post by phuqueue » Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:53 pm

I think Dem-leaning Millennials who didn't vote in 2016 is a much deeper well than white supremacist Millennials who didn't vote, but I guess we'll find out who the Millennials are voting for eventually. I'd be more worried about high turnout among demographics that are more likely to vote for Republicans, like old white people.

For what it's worth, it's only anecdotal, but I have personally heard from Republicans who seem to be lapping up Trump's prediction of a "red wave" -- if that has actually gained a lot of traction among his supporters, it might breed some complacency in their ranks (which is why other Republicans have been trying to get him to stop saying it).

Also anecdotal, but we've been doing some general non-partisan GOTV text banking (basically the organization pulls the names and phone numbers of registered voters from the Board of Elections and you send them a scripted text that says "Hey I'm so and so with whatever org, just reminding you that election day is Tuesday, please get out and vote") and have gotten a number of responses back (I don't know why people respond to these, but a surprising number of them do) from people who say they only vote for Trump. Again, I'm not sure how many of those there actually are out there, if they make up a significant part of Trump's support, but it's entirely possible that a lot of Trump supporters aren't going to turn out because they aren't actually Republicans, they're just Trump supporters. And some of those who used to be Democrats might return to the fold, at least for this election (and then might turn out for Trump again in 2020, who knows). The apparent strength that Dems are showing in polling across the Rust Belt (and maybe you're iffy on polls after 2016, but we're talking e.g. double digit leads for governor in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania) would seem to suggest that some not-insignificant number of "Trump Democrats" are actually still Democrats -- except when Trump's on the ballot, which, this year, he's not.

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Re: Politics

Post by earthling » Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:50 pm

Texas might be the most interesting state this election cycle. The state is hugely Latino and young yet they are traditionally least likely to vote. The potential is there to turn they state blue if they would just show up... and if Trump is enough of a turnoff they just might.

Kansas Gov is second most interesting as it really does seem to have a good shot to get a moderate Dem given Kobach has alienated moderate GOP and is viewed the same as Brownback. Would expect JoCo turning moderate blue at least.

MO will probably lose McCaskill, she's losing the ad and perception battle easily in a state turning more red anyway, especially STL metro.
Last edited by earthling on Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

earthling
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Re: Politics

Post by earthling » Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:59 pm

According to this, in 2013 34% in Kansas identified as GOP (highest GOP identity in US), in 2017 it's down to 25% (same as OH). MO increased from 23% to 26% GOP identity.

http://ava.prri.org/#politics/2013/States/party/1,2,3
http://ava.prri.org/#politics/2017/States/party/1,2,3

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