Cities in the future in regards to automation

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Riverite
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Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by Riverite » Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:34 pm

http://247wallst.com/jobs/2017/07/06/st ... s-el-paso/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsci ... ities/amp/

I found these two articles particularly interesting when trying to learn more about how automation will impact cities, I know that fighting for development may seem beleaguring at times however it may play a big impact at the future of our city. We have seen many rust belt cities take a beating and fall down a few pegs over he last century. I think that automation will deliver the next round of hits to our nations cities and towns, and how we prepare for them now could impact our cities health in the future.

What do you all think

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by aknowledgeableperson » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:59 am

I think many jobs in general are in danger. Self driving local and over-the-road trucks. Taxis, even Uber. Low level service jobs. Many are already talking about guaranteed income, much like welfare, because of the elimination of jobs. Look at how many factory jobs have been eliminated due to robots and automation.
Go back to the early 60's and the network cartoon show The Jetsons. Dad George felt overworked pushing an occasional button 9 hours a week. It may not be too long into the future when the 40 hour standard workweek is cut to 30 to 35 hours.

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by shinatoo » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:34 am

Only one job has be statistically eliminated because of automation, Elevator Operator.
Quocunque Jeceris Stabit

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by aknowledgeableperson » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:33 pm

shinatoo wrote:Only one job has be statistically eliminated because of automation, Elevator Operator.
switchboard operator

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by aknowledgeableperson » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:39 pm

Here is an outlook by Bill Gates:
http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gat ... obs-2014-3
""Software substitution, whether it's for drivers or waiters or nurses … it's progressing. ... Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set. ... 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model."

He's not the only one predicting this gloomy scenario for workers. In January, the Economist ran a big profile naming over a dozen jobs sure to be taken over by robots in the next 20 years, including telemarketers, accountants and retail workers."

mean
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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by mean » Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:38 pm

We're going to need to address our entire concept of work and how it relates to value and self-worth if that's the case. We are nowhere near prepared to deal with mass automation, psychologically. Our "value of a hard day's work" culture is just too ingrained.

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by Riverite » Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:46 pm

I'm not disagreeing, I also think before full blown crisis point hits. 10-20 years or something like that (eventually implementation of UBI of that happens) people will flock to the places that still do have jobs. I guess what I was wondering is there a way we can prepare our city for these changes, to avoid another rest belt like scenario hitting us. As far as the south where it is a lot of low wage menial jobs, and very little lean towards social safety nets I could see this hitting them the hardest. Not all southern cities of course Dallas and Austin should be fine, Houston might struggle as oil either becomes too expensive to make in the states or the world shifts more heavily to other forms of energy

Riverite
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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by Riverite » Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:47 pm

I don't think many people politicians have given it serious thought, probably hoping it doesn't hit till they leave office

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by brewcrew1000 » Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:25 am

I always thought this was a good article, when it just comes to working in general, people just need a different mindset.
http://evonomics.com/why-capitalism-cre ... d-graeber/
I don't understand why people are not embarrassing this, i think it will create a more fulfilling life, you will be able to spend more time with family, marriages will most likely last longer, there would be less stress and I also think people would keep working if we were to get some kind of stipend, I think they would be working on stuff that is normally not a good source of income or not very secure like Art, Craft Food, and other craft industries (Furniture, Handmade Clothing, etc)

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by flyingember » Wed Jul 12, 2017 9:40 am

aknowledgeableperson wrote:
shinatoo wrote:Only one job has be statistically eliminated because of automation, Elevator Operator.
switchboard operator
dead-
typing pools
filing clerks
both were once huge presences in any large office.

the pack animal care industry worldwide is so much smaller than it's beyond a 99.999% drop during the 20th century. there's places animals only work but roads have gone nearly everywhere and air cargo can reach nearly everywhere else

type setters is to the point it's a hipster only industry. nearly everything printed at one point required this job and now nearly everything is printed using lithography or direct digital


nearly there-
the payroll clerk. A hybrid HR or accounting role has mostly taken over this job as payroll went automated and outsourced

the classic unskilled bookkeeper role- someone that literally keeps the books. this role has been replaced by accountants with college degrees using computers. A lot of this role went with the replacement of paper spreadsheets with the computer and has been declining ever since



on their way out-
pharmacy technicians will be replaced with automation. pharmacists will still exist to approve and manage things but the grunt work of filling prescriptions will go away

bank tellers- the take money and add to the account role is rapidly being replaced. the banker job will still exist since making loans still has a people aspect.

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by Riverite » Wed Jul 12, 2017 9:57 am

Yeah I think unfortunately automation is only thought of if it totally gets rid of a job, however more efficiency can have just as much as an impact. Like sure the old version of the computers job wasn't entirely automated you still have to input the equations. But I would argue one person taking over the job with the help of technology a job that was formerly done by 26 is significant.

All of these gains in efficiency matter, and make people less likely to hire employees or retain their current ones unless the market pushes them to expand

I will have to look for the article but Morgan Stanley looked into automation through the block chain this year, and found that the majority of their jobs were redundant. Finance Jobs that make a lot. Or even if 60% of what you do is automated then one employee can do the work previously done by two.

I think we will definitely have to rethink the way we view economics and human rights. I'm a fan of UBA or Universal Basic Assets. I.e. Everyone regardless is given enough food, water and housing to live, I would also include internet and transportation through mass transit. Then it becomes the persons perogative to work if they want anything more. So no more need for any other social safety nets. Everyone gets the same unless they choose to work harder. Regardless of income. I would say that once automation gets far enough that we become post scarcity, I.e. No human input or work is needed to get us our basic needs then no one can complain about having to work for other people. I think it could also have the potentiality of bringing our taxes close to zero, robots work for free

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by pash » Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:22 pm

.
Last edited by pash on Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by Riverite » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:51 am

I'm not sure I don't doubt that employment will go away anytime soon. I think that the propensity and or the expectation that the average joe will be able to meaningfully contribute to the workforce will most certainly end in our lifetimes. I think that people are pointing to the great depression and the end of farming as the end all be all example. I don't think this is wrong, but we also have to take into consideration that society is on it's own sort of Moore's Law. The further we get into this everything becomes exponentially more complex. Work becomes more in depth. Most of the top hiring jobs right now weren't around ten years ago. If we can presume (which I think we can) that more ai and automation will get rid of some jobs like truck driver or manufacturer, then we can also guess that even if there were new jobs for these people they would most likely be much more complex and require more schooling.

At a certain point in this we get into a feedback loop in that technology is progressing faster than we could ever hope to keep up on top of the labor market. Even if there are new jobs we are still barelling towards a correction, because in the past it still took people time to move to the places where the jobs are, and it takes time to learn the skills.

I think I got kinda of long winded there sorry. Kinda where I was going with this was that it's not that things have changed since last time, it's that they are happening quicker. I think that's why everyone is getting worried. Also I wonder if like the great depression it will increase things like urbanization. Once automation starts off even a little more I don't see many small towns or small cities surviving, unless they have other employment opportunities. I don't know I just thought it might be something interesting to think about. If this stuff is coming, and Kansas City prepares, we would probably weather it a little better than other cities.

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by flyingember » Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:50 pm

pash wrote:The most famous example of technological unemployment is in agriculture, which employed more than half of Americans in the 1870s. Over the next six or seven decades, as agricultural production incorporated scientific advances and more and better machinery, output boomed while the sector's employment fell to a single-digit percentage of the nation's workforce.
Not just direct agriculture work and a lot of related jobs disappeared.

How many manure trucks do you see in big cities? that surely was a huge business at one time.

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Re: Cities in the future in regards to automation

Post by Highlander » Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:01 pm

pash wrote:The most famous example of technological unemployment is in agriculture, which employed more than half of Americans in the 1870s. Over the next six or seven decades, as agricultural production incorporated scientific advances and more and better machinery, output boomed while the sector's employment fell to a single-digit percentage of the nation's workforce.
The game changer for agriculture and much of the rest of the modern world was was the advent of oil as the primary source of energy. Not only did oil provide the horsepower to replace plows and as host of other farm machinery,it allowed more efficient transportation to market etc.... And it was instrumental in the development of fertilizers and many other advancements that also impacted agriculture (like irrigation).

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