Joco 10 year housing slide continues - now only 29 percent of metro starts

[knucklehead]

In 1999 Joco had 43 percent of all housing starts in the metro. Now that is down to 29 percent.

The Northland has passed Joco with 33 percent.

Apparently the high Kansas state and local taxes are taking there toll on the Joco housing industry.

http://www.kansascity.com/746/story/985933.html

[studentper]

yes, i'm sure it's taxes in kansas that have led to the fall in housing starts.  phew, problem solved.

[knucklehead]

Okay, I guess I should have said high taxes have taken there toll on Joco's housing market share relative to the rest of the metro.

[ignatius]

KC North has been leading housing starts for probably the last 5 years.  Not really news.

When housing supply exceeds 9 months, I'd wonder why there is any construction at all.  But I think it's at about 8 month supply now, which is pretty amazing compared to the rest of the US if the case.  Anyone see recent housing supply numbers?

A 5/6-month supply is considered the balancing point of buyers/sellers market.

[studentper]

Actually, I've always heard taxes are higher in JoCo, but we moved from Jackson to Johnson, and they have not been.  Our personal property taxes (cars) are about 1/2 what they were in Jackson.  The property tax rate is about the same, but the actual amount is much higher, because the house is much more expensive.  I think state marginal income tax rates are higher, but there's no city income tax, so that's pretty much a wash.

[GRID]

This is very good for metro KC as the region continues to balance out rather than simply sprawl southwest.  If the average metro area suburbanite is only 12 miles from downtown rather than 20, I would think that would be in the best interest of Downtown and the entire urban core.  It's one of the things that kills St Louis (having 90% of the burbs on one side and as far as 60 miles from downtown).

Clay and Platte should be considered one.  The areas of those counties that is part of the KC area where 99% of the growth occurs is actually smaller than JoCo, and it's all considered one area to anybody other than the property tax collectors.

Two things have slowed down JoCo housing growth in metro KC.  it's newer areas are getting too far away, even from many office parks in JoCo and the housing price point primarily serves the 300k plus buyer, something that is eroding.

While the Northland offers a wide selection of homes in every price point.

I do wonder why Clay and Platte couldn't merge into one county.  Seems like a no-brainer, but if KCMO doesn’t have 520k in the 2010 census, something is seriously wrong.

[bbqboy]

can counties merge?

[dangerboy]

Every part of the region is down, but the Northland is down much less than the others.  Parkville, Riverside, and Gladstone actually permitted more houses than the year before. 

Eastern Jack was hit really hard.  Lee's Summit was down almost 70%.  Blue Springs was down 60%, even with the gigantic annexations of recent years.  Grain Valley is down 80%.

Bad news Downtown, too.  KCMO only had 50 condos and 60 apartments in the entirety of south of the river vs. 500 multifamily permits north of the river.

[voltopt]

I think the lower number of housing starts in Johnson County reinforces the fact that it is an established region as opposed to a relatively undeveloped region that is filling in the gaps, such as Lee's Summit, the Northland, or west Wyandotte.

[Melling]

Unless some infill projects get off the ground in Johnson County, the downward trend seems likely to continue.  As mentioned above, much of the new housing is really far south or west.  To reverse the trend, the county will need to build multifamily housing in some of its sprawling parking lots.  More important, it will have to convince people that it's okay to live in a rowhouse, condo, etc.    

I know the Vision Metcalf plan calls for residential infill, but I wonder if it will appeal to young families.  A current townhouse project in Downtown Overland Park is offering a two-bedroom, one-bathroom, one-garage unit for $136,790.
See: http://buckleycourt.com/propdetail-7629 ... 468181.php

I can imagine many people saying, "I'm not paying that much -- it doesn't even have a yard!"  

[warwickland]

This is very good for metro KC as the region continues to balance out rather than simply sprawl southwest.  If the average metro area suburbanite is only 12 miles from downtown rather than 20, I would think that would be in the best interest of Downtown and the entire urban core.  It's one of the things that kills St Louis (having 90% of the burbs on one side and as far as 60 miles from downtown).

True, but I think it looks better on paper than anything...what is more important is having density surrounding downtown, contiguous development out to greenfield, and rapid transit...e.g. Chicago being the preeminent example of this, being as lopsided as possible. Seems like lopsided metros (metros with a body of water or a state on the other side people are not inclined to move to) seem to have way less leapfrogging.

[ignatius]

KC North has been leading housing starts for probably the last 5 years.  Not really news.

When housing supply exceeds 9 months, I'd wonder why there is any construction at all.  But I think it's at about 8 month supply now, which is pretty amazing compared to the rest of the US if the case.  Anyone see recent housing supply numbers?

A 5/6-month supply is considered the balancing point of buyers/sellers market.

Found a source from yesterday.. currently metro home supply is 8.8 months, which is really quite good compared to the rest of the country as many cities recently have 15-20 months supply.

http://kansascity.bizjournals.com/kansa ... rround=lfn

[Big Sam]

In 1999 Joco had 43 percent of all housing starts in the metro. Now that is down to 29 percent.

The Northland has passed Joco with 33 percent.

Apparently the high Kansas state and local taxes are taking there toll on the Joco housing industry.

http://www.kansascity.com/746/story/985933.html

Another key factor is voters in JoCo voted in elections in ways that were seen as a way to slow growth and sprawl.  Stopping the building of the 21st Century Parkway is an example.  It was a conscious decision that things were getting out of control by many suburbanites for a variety of reasons.  But they were key.

The big thing that helped the Northland was the fiber optic network near KCI that was installed.  It spurred growth in offices and industry int he area, and in turn housing followed.

Sam S.