Is America's suburban dream collapsing into a nightmare?

[aknowledgeableperson]

I stand corrected to a certain degree.  But no matter who wins there will be a push for renewable energy generation and possibly nuclear power plants.  Plus there will be a push for hybrids and electic cars.  And don't forget the push for overall energy conservation.

[ShowMeKC]

Hmm... It seems you all don't realize that gas prices go up and down, but have gradually raising up for a couple decades now:
~removed~

This years gas will cost more than last years, next years will be more than this years. Ending the war in Iraq might effect it some, but gas prices will inevitably continue to raise.

It is a resource that DOES NOT renew, at least in a reasonable amount of time. As we use more, the price will raise.

Only the ignorant would claim that oil prices will go back down and stay down, and we can continue to drive happily around our suburbs for generations to come.

[KCMax]

Can you really reduce dependence on foreign oil? Doesn't all oil just simply enter the marketplace? Are some barrels marked "U.S. oil" and some marked "Saudi oil"??

[ShowMeKC]

I'm not talking about dependence on foreign oil... I'm talking about dependence on oil PERIOD.

[OPIchabod]

AKP -

I wasn't trying to belittle your post - I was actually trying to make a point that trying to end our dependence on foreign oil is a fruitless pursuit.

We need to end our dependence on oil period.

[KCFutbol]

Hmm... It seems you all don't realize that gas prices go up and down, but have gradually raising up for a couple decades now:
~removed~

This years gas will cost more than last years, next years will be more than this years. Ending the war in Iraq might effect it some, but gas prices will inevitably continue to raise.

It is a resource that DOES NOT renew, at least in a reasonable amount of time. As we use more, the price will raise.

Only the ignorant would claim that oil prices will go back down and stay down, and we can continue to drive happily around our suburbs for generations to come.

Are the prices on your graph adjusted for inflation?

[Highlander]

In the 70's oil was withheld from the marketplace which then created shortages which then created lines at the gas pumps, rationing, and dry pumps.
Presently we do not have oil being withheld from the marketplace.  Price increases over the past year are due to many factors.  There is much dispute over those factors and how they have affected the pricing but there has been a substantial drop in oil prices for the past month.

My guess is oil prices will be heading to levels below $90 and will be below that level 3 years from now.  There might be an occasional spike due to political reasons but I think that whatever party wins in Nov. steps will be taken to take us away from our dependence of oil for security reasons.

I think you are a bit off.  First of all, there is no real dispute about why prices are high, there is speculation among the uninformed, but most people in the oil industry, understand that we simply cannot produce enough to keep up with demand over extended periods of time.  It's absolute and soley an issue of supply which is stable and perhaps already beginning wane and demand which continues to grow.  If prices drop to levels below today's level three years from now, I would be astounded.  I do not see any catalyst that would make that happen from an alternative energy point of view, and certainly not from an exploration perspective.  As the US cut production in the early part of 2008 (by 800,000 barrels per day...<5%), worldwide consumption increased by 1.3 million barrels per day.  There is nothing in terms of alternative fuels/vehicles that will destroy demand in that short of time frame.  Electric cars, for all the links you have provided, are still extremely limited in range and capability....the quoted ranges are ideal.  Throw in driving at night and air conditioning, a couple of passengers and expect half that much.  Americans are not going to give up the convenience of a gas powered auto until economic conditions force that upon them and we are not there yet.  Europeans get by at twice the price Americans pay.  

If prices were to drop to lets say 60$ per barrel, that would lead to a shut down of about every major new oil project in the world and force 1980-style layoffs in the energy industry acccompanied by a large drop in supply.  There is a saying in the industry, "60 is the new 20" which basically means the price that oil companies think they can operate while making substantial investments in future production has risen dramatically.  While prices have gone up, project costs and overheads have risen every bit as much.  What cost 40 million dollars a mere 4 years ago costs well over 100 million now.

I am not as optimistic as you are.  I don't think we get through a transition to alternative energy without a lot of pain and sacrifice and basically a profound change in the way of life.  That's because nothing out there is anywhere near as energy efficient as gasoline, we will pay a price in our standard of living for a less energy efficient sources of fuel.  Our entire way of life is predicated on cheap and easy energy.   From what I can tell, you accept the fact that oil reserves are in worldwide decline....but I guess we disagree on the scope and magnitude of the problems that will create.  You have a chance to start the post-oil era out in the right direction, however, in November by voting for light rail.  You are right about one thing, however, whoever we elect is going to have a challenge and I do not see Obama being any better than McCain or Bush for that matter when it comes to energy.      

[ShowMeKC]

Well, one good solution is to start supporting long distance transportation to be done by rail in the USA...

[Midtownkid]

I like the concept, but the trains we have now, and their speed just won't cut it for me.  I'm not going to take the train to Chicago, wait forever, then take it down to KC every time I want to go home.  If I want to go to Cai, forget it.  Now between here and NYC or any other NE city...that is ok.

[Highlander]

Well, one good solution is to start supporting long distance transportation to be done by rail in the USA...

Lets start on the far more needed INTRA-CITY transportation.  I agree with midtownkid, trains in the US are currently pretty unsuitable for long distance passenger travel unless you happen to be a train buff.  We are way behind in high-speed train travel to countries like Germany, France and Japan

[ShowMeKC]

That is why I said: "start supporting long distance transportation to be done by rail"

We need to START improving them.

Yes I know we also have to desperately deal with intra-city transportation. But we need to make people's movement towards the city (and to other centers like villages, etc...) more permentant. As people move out, there needs to be some incentive to demolish the suburban housing outside cities.

This would keep people from moving out there, especially the poor families. These poor families could thus be mixed in with the other income levels (though NEVER concentrated).

[Highlander]

That is why I said: "start supporting long distance transportation to be done by rail"

We need to START improving them.

Yes I know we also have to desperately deal with intra-city transportation. But we need to make people's movement towards the city (and to other centers like villages, etc...) more permentant. As people move out, there needs to be some incentive to demolish the suburban housing outside cities.

This would keep people from moving out there, especially the poor families. These poor families could thus be mixed in with the other income levels (though NEVER concentrated).

Re-establishing rail transportation for short and medium distance travel is a worthy and practical goal.  You should have stopped while you were ahead.

[ShowMeKC]

How long term are YOU thinking Highlander? I'm certainly not just thinking in the next 25 years... We ought to start now with short and medium routes, then eventually expand to longer ones. (if that means laying more rail lines, then so be it...)

[aknowledgeableperson]

I am not as optimistic as you are.  I don't think we get through a transition to alternative energy without a lot of pain and sacrifice and basically a profound change in the way of life.  That's because nothing out there is anywhere near as energy efficient as gasoline, we will pay a price in our standard of living for a less energy efficient sources of fuel.  Our entire way of life is predicated on cheap and easy energy.   From what I can tell, you accept the fact that oil reserves are in worldwide decline....but I guess we disagree on the scope and magnitude of the problems that will create.

Yes, I am optimistic.  And my optimism is based on past history of human activity.  The 70's was a wakeup call to the US and the world.  We may have not stayed awake all the time since but if you look at how efficient we have become since then (yes, we are using more energy but overall more efficiently) we have made some big strides.  Housing and other buildings have become more efficient.  Same goes for HVAC systems and appliances.  Autos.  Manufacturing production.  And so on.  And as energy costs go higher (and I know they will in the long run) there will be even more pressure to become more efficient.

We have a challenge before us.  Gore and Pickens have put some goals out there.  The US responded to the space challenge in the 60's and if the country and its politicans can unite and respond to the energy problems (and not just oil) like the space program who knows what the picture will be 10 years from now.  Will there be some hardships and setbacks?  Yes, just like the space program in the 60's but onward we went.  And the end result was man landing on the moon.

[bahua]

~removed~

Please attribute pictures you rip off, Devin.

[ShowMeKC]

When did we start attributing pictures on this website?

[Cyclops]

I think you are a bit off.  First of all, there is no real dispute about why prices are high, there is speculation among the uninformed, but most people in the oil industry, understand that we simply cannot produce enough to keep up with demand over extended periods of time.  It's absolute and soley an issue of supply which is stable and perhaps already beginning wane and demand which continues to grow.  If prices drop to levels below today's level three years from now, I would be astounded.  I do not see any catalyst that would make that happen from an alternative energy point of view, and certainly not from an exploration perspective.  As the US cut production in the early part of 2008 (by 800,000 barrels per day...<5%), worldwide consumption increased by 1.3 million barrels per day.  There is nothing in terms of alternative fuels/vehicles that will destroy demand in that short of time frame.  Electric cars, for all the links you have provided, are still extremely limited in range and capability....the quoted ranges are ideal.  Throw in driving at night and air conditioning, a couple of passengers and expect half that much.  Americans are not going to give up the convenience of a gas powered auto until economic conditions force that upon them and we are not there yet.  Europeans get by at twice the price Americans pay.  

If prices were to drop to lets say 60$ per barrel, that would lead to a shut down of about every major new oil project in the world and force 1980-style layoffs in the energy industry acccompanied by a large drop in supply.  There is a saying in the industry, "60 is the new 20" which basically means the price that oil companies think they can operate while making substantial investments in future production has risen dramatically.  While prices have gone up, project costs and overheads have risen every bit as much.  What cost 40 million dollars a mere 4 years ago costs well over 100 million now.

I am not as optimistic as you are.  I don't think we get through a transition to alternative energy without a lot of pain and sacrifice and basically a profound change in the way of life.  That's because nothing out there is anywhere near as energy efficient as gasoline, we will pay a price in our standard of living for a less energy efficient sources of fuel.  Our entire way of life is predicated on cheap and easy energy.   From what I can tell, you accept the fact that oil reserves are in worldwide decline....but I guess we disagree on the scope and magnitude of the problems that will create.  You have a chance to start the post-oil era out in the right direction, however, in November by voting for light rail.  You are right about one thing, however, whoever we elect is going to have a challenge and I do not see Obama being any better than McCain or Bush for that matter when it comes to energy.      

I've loosely followed this "end of oil" discussion, but It seems to me that everyone, in every country, and every economy, would be subject to the same supply issues you just talked about. At what point do these other countries start cutting back on their usage? If Americans dropped 5% since the beginning of the year, why won't these other places that have caused the 1.3 million barrel per day increase feel the prices and need to cut back as well? At what point does demand for gasoline peak?

I agree that we Americans will continue on even at double the current price of fuels, but I think given the opportunity we will be eager to switch to alternatives as soon as we can. I could purchase a vehicle right now that gives me almost 4 times the gas mileage that I currently get, which would be less consumption / $$$ for me than I used ten years ago. And I will probably switch as soon as I can make it work. It seems to me that there are so many more daily discussions about alternatives in the news, and more and more people are "working on it". Maybe I'm naive, but I know that these discussions were few and far between just a few years ago.

I guess I'm more like AKP, optimistic about the possibilities and thinking that we will be better for it in the long haul.

[bahua]

When did we start attributing pictures on this website?

Don't post copyrighted material

All contents of, and materials located on, this Site, including but not limited to the text, images and other information herein and their arrangement, are protected by copyright, trademark and other proprietary rights of iFAST Financial Pte Ltd ("IFPL"). This means that you shall not without the express written consent of IFPL distribute the text or graphics to others; "mirror" or include this information on your own server or documents; or modify or re-use the text or graphics on this system. IFPL reserves all other rights.

I've removed links to the picture, unless you've obtained the express written consent of IFPL.

[nota]

When did we start attributing pictures on this website?

Why on earth would you not?

[ShowMeKC]

We never used to, and all the other forums I post on, and have been on, people never do. Is there a reason you started enforcing this rule bahua?