KC to STL Hyperloop

[WoodDraw]

First off, it's not a vacuum, it's a low pressure tube. There is no way to maintain a complete vacuum over such a large system.

Second, high end estimates for Hyperloop between San Francisco and LA are in the 8 billion range. The HSR on the same route is estimated at around 70 billion. Break down the math, because big numbers are just made up of a bunch of small numbers.

Third, California is estimating a cost of $50-60 for a one way ticket and will still need subsidies. Hyper loop is estimating $20 one way, and that's with turning a profit.

Fourth, we build bridges that are earthquake resistant all the time now, with the same tech that will be used in the Hyperloop.

Fifth, hyperloop uses mag-lav for initial acceleration and a combination of forced air and maglav to eliminate friction and heat related issues.

Sixth, Elon Musk is smarter than you an I combined and has proven success with crazy ideas. See SpaceX, Tesla, Paypal.

Everything is theoretical until you actual build it.

It hasn't been built yet. And Elon musk is notorious for running late on everything. Is he even involved here?

I'm incredibly confident none of those cost estimates will come true in the real world.

[shinatoo]

Those cost estimates could go up 500% and it would still be less than HSR.

I'm confident that those estimates will not hold up either, that's why they are called estimates.

Musk is not directly involved with Hyperloop One.

[JBmidtown]

Break down the math, because big numbers are just made up of a bunch of small numbers.

Captain, we've reached maximum snark! Abandon ship, abandon ship!

[phuqueue]

Those cost estimates could go up 500% and it would still be less than HSR.

I'm confident that those estimates will not hold up either, that's why they are called estimates.

Musk is not directly involved with Hyperloop One.

And yet if the numbers are made up in the first place and "500%" is just an arbitrary amount by which you say they could increase, then there's really no telling how much it'll cost or how that compares to HSR. People uncritically accepting the claims of Elon Musk and the others pushing this are essentially the only reason we're talking about it at all. As bloated as the costs of HSR are, it's a fantasy to think anyone is going to build hundreds of miles of a fully elevated system using brand new technology for some tiny fraction of what it costs to build out a decades-old technology on the ground. Especially since the bloated costs of HSR are a problem that affects every other kind of transportation infrastructure in this country too.

[DaveKCMO]

this is the same claim made for decades by monorail and PRT people.

[shinatoo]

Those cost estimates could go up 500% and it would still be less than HSR.

I'm confident that those estimates will not hold up either, that's why they are called estimates.

Musk is not directly involved with Hyperloop One.

And yet if the numbers are made up in the first place and "500%" is just an arbitrary amount by which you say they could increase, then there's really no telling how much it'll cost or how that compares to HSR. People uncritically accepting the claims of Elon Musk and the others pushing this are essentially the only reason we're talking about it at all. As bloated as the costs of HSR are, it's a fantasy to think anyone is going to build hundreds of miles of a fully elevated system using brand new technology for some tiny fraction of what it costs to build out a decades-old technology on the ground. Especially since the bloated costs of HSR are a problem that affects every other kind of transportation infrastructure in this country too.

Other than the fact that they aren't just made up numbers. They are estimates made by highly educated and experienced people. So there is a lot of validity in them. They also aren't numbers being manipulated by some politician that's trying to get your vote.

[DaveKCMO]

They also aren't numbers being manipulated by some politician that's trying to get your vote.

you don't think the hyperloop discussion is political? that's funny.

[shinatoo]

They also aren't numbers being manipulated by some politician that's trying to get your vote.

you don't think the hyperloop discussion is political? that's funny.

It absolutely is political. But the estimates that have come out aren't from a politician, they are from well respected private developers looking for investors. If this thing comes to a vote for public funds then we will see how the numbers look. However, KC Streetcar did a damn fine job of sticking close to estimates, didn't they?

[longviewmo]

It's almost like streetcar is a proven technology with expected costs.

[shinatoo]

It's almost like streetcar is a proven technology with expected costs.

Yes it is. Also a lot easier to estimate cost over a 2 mile line than it is over 250 miles.

I guess i'm still not seeing what issue you guy are having with what I'm saying. So here is what I'm saying.

Hyperloop is a technology that is estimated to have 1/8th the cost of HSR(220) and could go up in cost exponentially and still be less expensive than HSR. Is there a chance that it will be more expensive than HSR, or may never work? Yes, absolutely. Is it a technology that is conceived and endorsed buy highly successful people that have tried amazing things that everyone said wouldn't work and yet they did? Yes. It's not like this is some crackpot garage idea. This is from a guy that is landing reusable booster rockets on seafaring platforms, something NASA could never pull off.

I would LOVE for this to happen. It could be world changing. If it could happen St. Louis to KC it could be huge for Missouri. Personally I would rather see it KC to Denver, it would be easier to build, and I think Denver has more in common industry wise. To be in Denver in under an hour would be sweet.

[mean]

It's kind of a crackpot idea that's been around in some form or another for over a hundred years. I would love to see it work and be made to work safely and with near zero risk of an accidental breach horrifically killing a train load of people slamming into a brick wall of air at the speed of sound, but color me skeptical. And this from a guy who thought landing a rocket on a barge was a reasonably practical software problem.

[earthling]

I would LOVE for this to happen. It could be world changing. If it could happen St. Louis to KC it could be huge for Missouri. Personally I would rather see it KC to Denver, it would be easier to build, and I think Denver has more in common industry wise. To be in Denver in under an hour would be sweet.

Denver/KC would be interesting and might be easier to build in terms of fewer obstructions and easier ROWs but they'd have 3 state govts to deal with. Looks like it's up to regional groups to propose and such route wasn't.

If the KC/STL route hypothetically happened (as both people/freight mover), I wonder which metro would benefit most. Would STL start growing again or would more move further out to stops along the line.

[missingkc]

Depending upon the cost to ride, this could so dramatically reshape the geography of interactions and the economy.

Practically, Warrensburg would be further from KC than SL would. It would be about as easy to attend Washington University as UCMO. (Yes, I know they have a KC area campus.)

There are a number of businesses - I think of law firms and banks - that have officers and operations in both KC and SL. Would that be necessary any longer?

Would Monsanto be tempted to build in - or even move its headquarters - to Kansas in order to take advantage of border war tax breaks?

Public transportation lines at both ends would have to be reconfigured to accommodate exiting, carless passengers. All sorts of transportation for hire would probably prosper.

What would it cost to have your car shipped with you? Could you make the trip in your car like on a ferry?

Would the Star and the Post-Dispatch become competing newspapers? Would there be room for both?

Would the Chiefs become the Missouri Chiefs?

Would we need both KCI and Lambert?

[DaveKCMO]

they'll probably want to build a big park and ride, just like the airport.

[phuqueue]

Those cost estimates could go up 500% and it would still be less than HSR.

I'm confident that those estimates will not hold up either, that's why they are called estimates.

Musk is not directly involved with Hyperloop One.

And yet if the numbers are made up in the first place and "500%" is just an arbitrary amount by which you say they could increase, then there's really no telling how much it'll cost or how that compares to HSR. People uncritically accepting the claims of Elon Musk and the others pushing this are essentially the only reason we're talking about it at all. As bloated as the costs of HSR are, it's a fantasy to think anyone is going to build hundreds of miles of a fully elevated system using brand new technology for some tiny fraction of what it costs to build out a decades-old technology on the ground. Especially since the bloated costs of HSR are a problem that affects every other kind of transportation infrastructure in this country too.

Other than the fact that they aren't just made up numbers. They are estimates made by highly educated and experienced people. So there is a lot of validity in them. They also aren't numbers being manipulated by some politician that's trying to get your vote.

They're numbers being manipulated by some businessman trying to sell you something. That sounds far more trustworthy.

I guess i'm still not seeing what issue you guy are having with what I'm saying. So here is what I'm saying.

Hyperloop is a technology that is estimated to have 1/8th the cost of HSR(220) and could go up in cost exponentially and still be less expensive than HSR.

My issue is I want to know what that "estimate" is actually based on without simply taking Elon Musk's word for it because he's a smart guy. I've got no problem with Hyperloop if it works as well as its people claim it will, at the price they say it will cost, but land acquisition + building an elevated structure of any kind make the estimates look unrealistic to me before you even get into issues like the fact that it's never been built before. The other "amazing" things he's done that you've cited earlier in this thread all have precedent. Rockets, electric cars, and financial intermediaries are all things that had been around for a long time before Elon Musk came along. Hyperloop has not. I want to know how they're going to build elevated, sealed tunnels over hundreds of miles for less than the cost of railroad tracks on the ground, not just that they say they can.

[shinatoo]

I see there is no pleaseing you.

[flyingember]

What would it cost to have your car shipped with you? Could you make the trip in your car like on a ferry?

This would ensure use. A premium service to cut 4 hours of driving as a series of hops, like you pull out of one tunnel and move onto the next. You could go route to route and cross the country in hours.

That would be the real power of the system and why they're starting with freight, because freight companies will pay for quick.

[warwickland]

i've just returned from china, where they are building bullet trains all over the place (that i rode) like we build (whatever we build) that go 200 mph. even the rail line that only goes from the shanghai airport to central shanghai goes 200 mph.

i'm way jetlagged so i don't know what my point is other than it's clear that infrastructure in america is even more pathetic than i thought it was after i returned from europe...like we are really in the shitter, now, and especially the midwest. hyperloop just sounds like another pile of shit pie in the sky idea when we could be building proven tech like true high speed rail (and not the joke of a HSR line being built between chicago - stl).

[mean]

That's kind of the benefit of having a wealth of massively dense megacities and an authoritarian government that can do whatever the hell they want, rather than a bunch of sprawly half-cities filled with people whose primary dream and goal in life is to move even further away and a government that can't get anything done because it is mired in layer after layer of bureaucracy, procedural minutia, partisan infighting, and petty political games played to ensure perpetual reelection rather than serving the needs of constituents.

Or maybe I'm just a cynical jerk.

[normalthings]

i've just returned from china, where they are building bullet trains all over the place (that i rode) like we build (whatever we build) that go 200 mph. even the rail line that only goes from the shanghai airport to central shanghai goes 200 mph.

i'm way jetlagged so i don't know what my point is other than it's clear that infrastructure in america is even more pathetic than i thought it was after i returned from europe...like we are really in the shitter, now, and especially the midwest. hyperloop just sounds like another pile of shit pie in the sky idea when we could be building proven tech like true high speed rail (and not the joke of a HSR line being built between chicago - stl).

If we built bullet trains like China built them, soo many people would go to prison or get sued.