Phase 2 Streetcar Funding

[flyingember]

expanding the TDD to the SW for Prospect MAX and dropping Brookside was the major mistake. the TDD should have been a bubble out from the train a certain distance

adding improved bus service in the plan did not help with the vote, and if it did, it was negligible at best
the train's path did give a bump over surrounding precincts, so people nearby were more likely to vote yes if not a majority

ward 3: they voted 33-42% along the line while further south was 20-27% for, even along Prospect.
so that's a huge bump for being along the train line

in ward 12, the precincts right along the line saw a 5-10% bump over ones further out.
the corner at the train was the highest yes percentage in the ward

in ward 2 a precinct along Prospect only had among the lowest percentages yes. the highest vote was along the train line

the highest percentage in ward 7 were near Rockhurst University. two precincts flanking Prospect was the second lowest

ward 11, the highest vote west of Troost was the pendleton heights, etc area to the north of Indep Ave

12, the highest was at the end of the line, it plummeted from there

[flyingember]

Ward 11 (Indy Ave) is probably worth a second look. It lost by 21 votes out of 835.

Ward 11 is also the river market and columbus park. take them away and you're a solid no. the river market votes 83% yes, all of 171 votes total

the low turnout in that precinct is a big deal. needed to promote getting more for the same taxes with this vote and increase turnout

[flyingember]

not exactly, but the precinct groupings that touch each line results:

3664 to 3524
50.97% yes

so my idea of a bump along the line getting a yes vote was killed by the larger district. the 3-5% bump along the line is real enough that limiting the TDD to a small bubble along the line could get a yes vote. but it's super risky without a larger turnout west of troost. ward 1 and 2 hovered around 15% yes. wards 2,3 were worse

[flyingember]

distance determines the vote and only trains get enough yes votes.

this tells us that the district needs to be scaled down to be closer to the project

but there's two choices with this, we can add rail and get more coverage for the eastside, Prospect would do the most benefits for the vote, or we can shrink the project scope

and perhaps that would be a good two phase project. phase 2 = Main St to plaza, phase 3 = major eastside expansion with 3-4 lines

[mykn]

I've been trying to map out the votes precinct by precinct for a little while now. Anyone know of a good tool to do this on google maps? Might be a good way to visualize the data and evaluate a new TDD.

[flyingember]

I've been trying to map out the votes precinct by precinct for a little while now. Anyone know of a good tool to do this on google maps? Might be a good way to visualize the data and evaluate a new TDD.

I use excel and roughly categorize it using a precinct map as my guide as I make various hypothesis. I wanted to see how small changes would affect the results if distance was a major determining factor

Since voting is hard to predict the roughness fits with my idea of showing big picture from actions, not how specific areas would have voted or will vote

I just wish the KCEB released more granular data sets. They don't go down to the precinct level but clusters of them.

[mykn]

I've been trying to map out the votes precinct by precinct for a little while now. Anyone know of a good tool to do this on google maps? Might be a good way to visualize the data and evaluate a new TDD.

I use excel and roughly categorize it using a precinct map as my guide as I make various hypothesis. I wanted to see how small changes would affect the results if distance was a major determining factor

I just wish the KCEB released more granular data sets. They don't go down to the precinct level but clusters of them.

Yea that is annoying. If it was easy to generate these maps, it would be interesting to map the results against population density.

[KCPowercat]

Does data.kcmo.gov have something you can use? It has a lot of maps

[flyingember]

Does data.kcmo.gov have something you can use? It has a lot of maps

I would doubt it, the election board is a separate entity from the city and their data is the annoying part

there's already good density maps out there with census data already, the NYT did a wonderful one a few years back. but overlaying the election results is a pain since voting density is an unknown without finer data to better pinpoint voter location. even per precinct would be better

there's not enough regular voters in KC to need 100+ voting locations so they're heavily combined

[flyingember]

the ethics complaint failed and the group that filed it responded that they expected that response, it was politics.

of course it was. the complaint was politics too.


http://www.kansascity.com/news/governme ... 36408.html