The End of Oil

[aknowledgeableperson]

Your head is in the sand, as is the rest of the Panglossian Pollyanna contingent of uninformed blithering masses who all assume the transition from oil to some other super duper miracle energy source will swoop in and save American-style easy motoring and strip mall gulag retail just at the right moment.

I would say you are the one with the head in the sand.  Do you not read about how biofuels are being developed, not just in the USA but in other countries.  Of course there are the hybrids that are already here as well as other fuels that propel cars.  Will things be different?  Of course they will be.  Don't forget the individual auto is not the only user of oil.  There are the trucks that transport the bottles to the plant that fills the bottled water, the trucks that transport the bottles to the distributer, the trucks that transport the bottles to the retailer.  And don't forget your clothes, foodstuffs, furniture, and so on that you consume.  And your stryoform coffee cups.

[phxcat]

I would say you are the one with the head in the sand.  Do you not read about how biofuels are being developed, not just in the USA but in other countries.  Of course there are the hybrids that are already here as well as other fuels that propel cars.  Will things be different?  Of course they will be.  Don't forget the individual auto is not the only user of oil.  There are the trucks that transport the bottles to the plant that fills the bottled water, the trucks that transport the bottles to the distributer, the trucks that transport the bottles to the retailer.  And don't forget your clothes, foodstuffs, furniture, and so on that you consume.  And your stryoform coffee cups.

Or the bottles!

[Beermo]

there will be oil around after we die. on the other hand you should watch the movie "who killed the electric car". very informative piece.

[KC0KEK]

Don't forget the individual auto is not the only user of oil.  There are the trucks that transport the bottles to the plant that fills the bottled water, the trucks that transport the bottles to the distributer, the trucks that transport the bottles to the retailer.  And don't forget your clothes, foodstuffs, furniture, and so on that you consume.  And your stryoform coffee cups.

And the tapes, records and CDs produced by all of the self-righteous musicians at Live Earth.

[KCMax]

And the tapes, records and CDs produced by all of the self-righteous musicians at Live Earth.

Not to mention their private jets!

[K.C.Highrise]

Biofuels are not the answer. It sounds like a great idea (lets just GROW our fuel!), however you look at what the recent mass introduction of ethanol has done to corn prices, milk prices, cheese prices and meat prices recently and you will understand why widescale ethanol adoption is not an answer. The problem with ethanol comes down to Do you want to eat, or drive?

Yes oil will be around after we die, however is will be very difficult to get to and VERY expensive.

[KC0KEK]

The problem with ethanol comes down to Do you want to eat, or drive?

Which is one of the reasons why we should be focused on other biofuel materials, such as switchgrass.

[K.C.Highrise]

^--- lol. Switchgrass still needs LAND. Land is the limiting factor in this equation. We can't grow enough ______ (fill in the blank) to satisfy the "needs" of US motorists, let alone the world.

[KCMax]

Can't it make a dent in our oil consumption though? I don't expect any one source to become our dominant energy source in the future, which is a good thing because then we're not so susceptible to wild price fluctuations. The answer is probably a mix of biofuels, wind energy, solar energy, natural gas, and yes, even nuclear and oil.

[KC0KEK]

^--- lol. Switchgrass still needs LAND. Land is the limiting factor in this equation. We can't grow enough ______ (fill in the blank) to satisfy the "needs" of US motorists, let alone the world.

Of course not, but we can grow enough to create a widely available alternative that makes a big dent in the use of fuels based on more environmentally unfriendly materials.

[Jason]

Biofuels are not the answer. It sounds like a great idea (lets just GROW our fuel!), however you look at what the recent mass introduction of ethanol has done to corn prices, milk prices, cheese prices and meat prices recently and you will understand why widescale ethanol adoption is not an answer. The problem with ethanol comes down to Do you want to eat, or drive?

Yes oil will be around after we die, however is will be very difficult to get to and VERY expensive.

It is worthless to even comment on a thread with so much mis-information and "the sky is falling" rhetoric, but like watching a train wreck, I just can't help myself......

I picked this quote because it is very easy to address, although there are plenty of other comments worthy of correction on this thread.


But, likely we will not find ONE right answer for future energy needs, just as oil today is not the only energy source that is right for every application (coal, nuclear, etc)

Bio-fuels, ARE one part of the potential answer.  The short term cost issue is with farmers converting production to corn from other crops.  Next year more corn will be planted and corn prices will likely settle down, or until such time as corn production meets demand.  (You know, that whole supply/demand thing)  Many farmers simple got caught off guard and production is lagging demand.  Now once they convert production to corn from say soybeans, then next year, soy prices will go up...so be prepared to see that one next.

Chicken, milk and beef producers all use corn to feed their animals, when one of your main feed sources goes up, so does your price of your commodity to the market, that is why we are seeing those items increase right now.  What was a relatively steady market has seen it's entire market balance thrown off due to Ethanol demand entering into the corn market and driving up prices for all users.

Now the beauty of a FREE market, is that smart farmers will figure out how to plant more corn, get better yields from crops, get land out of the Federal program that has paid them to not grow anything for the last 15+ years and actually start producing again, etc....

It does suck to see prices spike, no one likes it, except for the guy that benefits from it in the short run.  But the free market moves far quicker then the federal government to correct these problems.  In less then a year the market will move to shore up the imbalance that exists right now.  

Switchgrass or any other engineered crop to maximize energy production may be a far better long range option, but ethanol and the network to support it is already in place in many areas, it is a band-aid fix right now and may be part of a long range solution for some parts of our enrgy needs in the future.

I won't even go into a far seedy part of the market with speculators that can drive up and destroy market prices for the actual people that are doing the real production in the first place.  But, they do serve a purpose to keep both suppliers and users in check so that neither side steps too far out in bilking the other for either too high a price or too low a price to keep the market alive.....

And to the question of do I want to eat or drive.....thanks I will do both.

[49r]

Food is way too cheap in the US anyway.  Just look at all the fat people around...

[Tosspot]

'Cause it's an excuse to use silly words, with a little gob of white spittle forming on their lip as they type.

yes, pardon me all to fucking hell for not being as completely boring as the rest of you when I write.

I would say you are the one with the head in the sand.  Do you not read about how biofuels are being developed, not just in the USA but in other countries.  Of course there are the hybrids that are already here as well as other fuels that propel cars.  Will things be different?  Of course they will be.  Don't forget the individual auto is not the only user of oil.  There are the trucks that transport the bottles to the plant that fills the bottled water, the trucks that transport the bottles to the distributer, the trucks that transport the bottles to the retailer.  And don't forget your clothes, foodstuffs, furniture, and so on that you consume.  And your stryoform coffee cups.

Straw man argument once again from you. Yes, I am fully aware that it's not just personal cars drinking up all the oil. So what was the point of the rest? Every single one of you apparently believes that our economy can just keep chugging along the way it has been once we implement alternative fuels, as if it is going to be a seamless transition, and we can just keep motoring around merrily until the cows come home. Why do so few people realize the larger issue - the economic infrastructure predicated on inexpensive energy will have to be replaced. It's not a doomsday scenario, and anyone saying it's a doomsday prognostication is merely showing their own ignorance of the matter. The days of the "3000 mile Caesar Salad" will have to stop, and this simply means more of the economy will have to be based on local production and operations, not trucking around supplies from one side of the continent to the other on Interstate highways.

[phxcat]

Yes, I am fully aware that it's not just personal cars drinking up all the oil. So what was the point of the rest? Every single one of you apparently believes that our economy can just keep chugging along the way it has been once we implement alternative fuels, as if it is going to be a seamless transition, and we can just keep motoring around merrily until the cows come home. Why do so few people realize the larger issue - the economic infrastructure predicated on inexpensive energy will have to be replaced. It's not a doomsday scenario, and anyone saying it's a doomsday prognostication is merely showing their own ignorance of the matter. The days of the "3000 mile Caesar Salad" will have to stop, and this simply means more of the economy will have to be based on local production and operations, not trucking around supplies from one side of the continent to the other on Interstate highways.

This is the thing.  Yes, there will probably be other fuels available, but you can't just expect us to run out of oil and start up on the next thing.  Anything that we do to get off of oil is going to require work and effort.  And belief that the invisible hand of the free market is going to solve everything is pretty damn pie in the sky.  In fact, as a Christian, I would consider market worship to be blasphemous, but that is basically what it is- worship and faith in the free market.  I think that there are alternatives out there- and switchgrass (or something else) would probably provide a ton more gallons of fuel per acre than corn- but we will need infrastructure, and we will need cars that run on it, and this won't happen as soon as the market dictates that it should.  And whe the market does start to really get flex fuel and biofuel based vehicle produced in mass, the poor will be stuck with what they can afford, which will be used gasoline fueled cars, which will lead to a much greater division between the haves and the have nots. 

We don't need to panic, but we do (all of us) need to start planning ahead, to make sure that the end of oil can be put off long enough for the next technology to take effect.

[phna]

Electric cars will be the next form of transportation, however IMO we will go through a lot of pain because of stupidity and lack of planning.

And the power to provide the electricity the cars will use will come from?

[KC0KEK]

yes, pardon me all to fucking hell for not being as completely boring as the rest of you when I write.

How did you know that I wasn't referring to someone else? But it's nice to see that you're able to recognize and acknowledge your problem without the rest of us actually citing you by name.

[K.C.Highrise]

phna- My guess wind, nuclear and to a lesser extent coal; hopefully with CO2 capture technology.

Tosspot I have forgotten to thank you for your intelligent comments over the past 3-4 years.

-For all you biofuel fans: food for thought. We have more corn planted now since WW2, we have the highest prices for corn in the last 30 years (at least), a quarter of all corn goes to ethanol porduction, and how many people have 100% ethanol cars? I think ethanol accounts for less than 10% of gasoline consumption; this does not count such things as Jet fuel, heating oil, diesal, etc. This is just from liquid fuels. Also the increased land allocation for corn is driving wheat prices, soybean prices, milo, etc UP. Please don't lecture me on the law of supply and demand when you obviously don't understand that there is one limiting factor influencing this equation. (they aren't making any more land, and me will have 2.5 billion more mouths to feed in 40 years.) My head is starting to hurt.

[aknowledgeableperson]

there will be oil around after we die. on the other hand you should watch the movie "who killed the electric car". very informative piece.

Only informative from one point of view.  Open that subject up to other points of view and you will receive a different and probably more truthful story. 

[aknowledgeableperson]

Also the increased land allocation for corn is driving wheat prices, soybean prices, milo, etc UP. Please don't lecture me on the law of supply and demand when you obviously don't understand that there is one limiting factor influencing this equation. (they aren't making any more land, and me will have 2.5 billion more mouths to feed in 40 years.) My head is starting to hurt.

Yes, prices at the farm are rising.  That is how our economic system works.  But the price of what the farmer receives for the crop is very small compared to the actual cost of the product we buy.  True, they are not making more land but they are making the land and the crops more efficient, that is more bushels per acre.

Biofuels will not be the only answer but it will be one of the answers to the problem. 

[K.C.Highrise]

$6 per busshel for corn. This money goes to the farmer. Biofuels will be part of the "answer" but in my opinion, for the reasons already stated, it will be a very very small part of the "answer".