Newtown shooting and gun control

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chaglang
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

Post by chaglang »

Heh. Ok, I'm going to go out on a limb here, but can we at least agree that it is, sometimes? I mean, you could ask the Jews and Native Americans I mentioned, but they all got rounded up and shot.
Sorry, no, because the unstated context is that because these people were disarmed they were able to be killed by their governments. And I don't agree with that. There are loads of articles debunking that as a contributing factor in the Holocaust. And the Native Americans were armed. You could ask Custer, but he's dead.

If anything, bringing up the Native Americans underscores the ultimate futility of the "protection from government" posturing. The government always has you outgunned. If some people want to go out shooting, fine, but I don't think their apacolyptic fantasies should be a basis for our firearms policies.

When you stop and think about it, the fact that the US government is fine with some of it's citizens openly stating that they want to keep their firearms in case they ever want to engage in hostilities against the government is amazing. It's either an extraordinary statement of tolerance or an indication that they do not view the well-regulated militia as a threat of any kind. Maybe both.

That Hamilton quote was in reference to firearms?
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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lock+load wrote:Does anyone really believe that their solitary soul and a stockpile of guns is enough to out maneuver and overpower a determined US government? You only have two hands to be shooting with at one time.
Some probably do, but I think most just want to ensure that they at least have some chance. How many people really believed that a bunch of farmers with guns could defeat the British army? I'm sure it seemed fairly improbable at the time.
chaglang wrote:Sorry, no, because the unstated context is that because these people were disarmed they were able to be killed by their governments. And I don't agree with that. There are loads of articles debunking that as a contributing factor in the Holocaust. And the Native Americans were armed. You could ask Custer, but he's dead.
Are you familiar with the Wounded Knee Massacre? The Lakota were in the process of being disarmed when it occurred. One old guy was refusing to give up his rifle, and for whatever reason it ended in a slaughter in which 150-300+ people were killed, including many Lakota who attempted to flee and were gunned down anyway. I don't think this is really at question. And it's equally not in question that the Jews were disarmed by the Reich and subsequently subjected to genocide. Perhaps the disarmament of the Jews and other political opponents of the Nazi regime is purely coincidental to their eventual attempted extermination. Perhaps there are loads of articles debunking that as a contributing factor, but you didn't supply any, so here's an article published in the Arizona Journal of International and Comparative Law (2000) that draws a different conclusion, stating in part, "Gun control laws are depicted as benign and historically progressive. However, German firearm laws and hysteria created against Jewish firearm owners played a major role in laying the groundwork for the eradication of German Jewry in the Holocaust."
chaglang wrote:If anything, bringing up the Native Americans underscores the ultimate futility of the "protection from government" posturing. The government always has you outgunned. If some people want to go out shooting, fine, but I don't think their apacolyptic fantasies should be a basis for our firearms policies.
Hey, I agree. The government will (at least almost) always have you outgunned. But does that mean you just submit to whatever unjust detention, subjugation, or genocide they might care to subject you to? I mean, really? "Well, I'm gay; gay = death penalty; I can't leave the country; I'm just going to let the government murder me." I might not have the balls myself to go down in a blaze of glory on principle, but that's a very fundamentally and I'd argue timeless American ideal, without which we might be drinking tea and enjoying superior healthcare.

Furthermore, invoking "apocalyptic fantasy" strikes me as a little bit of "it can't happen here" naivety. Yes, right now everything looks to be coming up roses for Americans in America. Fears of being unjustly rounded up and sent off to concentration camps or faced with the prospect of government mandated genocide, or an attack from outside, or a military coup or some other collapse of society all seem exceptionally silly. I get that, but I reject the idea that it's impossible, and I certainly reject the idea that America will necessarily be forever a stable democratic republic incapable of engaging in unjust aggression against its citizens because of... what, magic? American exceptionalism? No, I think instability, corruption, and exploitation--even collapse of entire civilizations--can happen anywhere given the proper circumstances, and I think it is only by virtue of the fact that we've been so fortunate for the entirety of living memory that we are capable of rejecting the notion of such a thing outright. For perspective, our biggest political problem is that only 92% of people have jobs. First world problems indeed!
chaglang wrote:When you stop and think about it, the fact that the US government is fine with some of it's citizens openly stating that they want to keep their firearms in case they ever want to engage in hostilities against the government is amazing. It's either an extraordinary statement of tolerance or an indication that they do not view the well-regulated militia as a threat of any kind. Maybe both.
I think it is based on an understanding that to do otherwise would probably cause more problems than it solved.
chaglang wrote:That Hamilton quote was in reference to firearms?
Not explicitly as such, but it is followed almost immediately by, "The citizens must rush tumultuously to arms, without concert, without system, without resource; except in their courage and despair. The usurpers, clothed with the forms of legal authority, can too often crush the opposition in embryo." He didn't say, "GET YER GUNS AND SHOOT THE DESPOTS YEEE HAWW!" but I think the intent is pretty crystal clear.
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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American Revolution: Colonists fighting against an occupation army several months' travel from home vs. citizens in the most technologically advanced country in history. It happened here, but that's where the similarities end for me. The only Minutemen still relevant are the ones who recorded Double Nickels on the Dime.

Nazis: http://www.salon.com/2013/01/11/stop_ta ... ut_hitler/

Wounded Knee: end of a 30 year armed conflict. War crime. Also worth noting that the war was overwhelmingly supported by Americans. Doesn't justify it but also doesn't fit with the scenario of a rogue US government exterminating it's citizens.

Submitting to subjugation: if we all agree that armed resistance is a sure loser and the heroic blaze of glory is what this really boils down to, then we should go ahead and outlaw assault rifles. A .45 will be all you need. The cruise missile will take care of the rest.

Alexander Hamilton: sorry, not taking firearms advice from that guy. :D

My/The Economist's naivety:
Worldwide, there is no correlation whatsoever at the country level between private handgun ownership and liberal democracy. There are no cases of democratic countries in which nascent authoritarian governments were successfully resisted due to widespread gun ownership. When authoritarian governments come to power in democracies (which is rare), they do so at the ballot box or with heavy popular support; where juntas overthrow democratic governments, as in Greece, Brazil, Chile or Iran, popular gun ownership is irrelevant. Once authoritarian governments take power, if they decide they don't want citizens to own guns, they take them away, easily crushing any isolated attempts at resistance. When, on the other hand, authoritarian governments are overthrown in military uprisings (as opposed to peaceful revolutions, which are more common), the arms that defeat them come from defecting soldiers or outside aid. Widespread gun ownership among the common folk may conceivably have been an important obstacle to centralised government control in 17th-century Britain, just emerging from feudalism; but since the universalisation of the modern nation-state in the 19th century, the degree of force that governments can bring to bear has overwhelmed any conceivable popular defence of localised rights and privileges by companies of yeoman musketeers. To stack up against police, the National Guard or the US Army, private gun enthusiasts would, at a minimum, have to be packing an arsenal that would be illegal in any state in the union, even Arizona.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democrac ... gun-rights
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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I think it is important to remember that I agree with you, I'm just trying to offer perspective.

That said, does resistance being futile negate the validity of the human right to resist?
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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mean wrote:
phuqueue wrote:Put down some restrictions now, whatever you can get, and you eventually establish a new normal in which any and all restrictions are not per se "invalid." Then you can eventually move on from there to place yet more and more restrictions, until you get somewhere where you're making a genuine difference.
I appreciate your explicitness, which is not something we're going to get from the legislators because, of course, they understand that this is precisely what the pro-gun crowd is afraid of, and why the NRA and such continually reject any and all measures. To admit that this was the goal would be a non-starter. Of course, I don't think it is necessarily the goal of everyone supporting the gun control legislation. I'm sure there are many who believe that restrictions on high capacity magazines and "assault rifles" will go a long way to solving the problem; it is that notion I'm extremely skeptical of. It will require far more onerous restrictions--the slippery slope you describe--gun buybacks, mandatory turn-in programs, onerous sales restrictions, and ultimately the obliteration of the second amendment, which is exactly what I said earlier. I don't think the slippery slope you describe is necessarily the best way to go about it in the long term. I'd rather see the second amendment repealed, and let us deal with whatever fallout comes of it and move on, rather than doing this slow, decades long Band-Aid peel with the inevitable court challenges, electoral fallout, etc.. In part this is because there are a not insignificant number of people who feel that at some point along this slope, the legislation becomes actual tyranny, and that they are not only justified but in fact compelled to eradicate it. Better to deal with them all at once rather than piecemeal, each time we reach a particular point along the slope that someone finally feels like they can no longer tolerate it. I guess that's not realpolitik, though.
I think everyone supporting gun legislation has the goal of reducing gun violence -- how you get there is probably inconsequential to the vast majority. You may be right that there are some who think restrictions on magazines and assault weapons will be sufficient, once we get these things passed they can just pack it in. But when it becomes clear that wasn't enough, I think most of those people will favor yet more stringent restrictions, because a) people are far more susceptible to the logic in their own heads than they are to actual facts or statistics (so they'll stick with the "people are getting killed by guns, ergo we should make guns harder to get" line), and b) in any case, the fact that these steps alone didn't "solve" the gun problem doesn't mean further steps would necessarily be ineffective. The slippery slope doesn't require that everyone at all times be aware of it. Not everyone has to understand the long game. It may actually be better that many don't, lest they throw their hands up at the hopelessness of it all and decide not to do anything at all.

Repealing the Second Amendment would be a nice shortcut, but we're many decades away from that, and we only get there at all with a concerted national effort to change attitudes toward weapons in the first place. Constitutional amendment procedures are quite burdensome (with good reason, of course) and if we have trouble even pushing through legislation to mandate criminal background checks of all gun sales, how much further away are we from outright repeal? The big issue here is that the problems guns cause actually reinforce some people's desire to keep them. The more shooting deaths there are, the more convinced these people become that they need their guns to protect themselves from other shooters. So there is no clear path here, no rational argument that they'll find acceptable. The only alternative is the long, slow grind.
I would say, by way of example, that in hindsight Randy Weaver had a right to defend himself and his family against the illegitimate aggression and illegal Rules of Engagement used in the raid on his home in 1992 by the FBI, ATF, and USMS. Or that, in many instances (Wounded Knee comes to mind), Native Americans had the right to defend themselves against illegitimate aggression and, arguably, attempted genocide. Or, leaving the US for a moment, that Jews in Nazi Germany had a fundamental (if not legally recognized in their country) human right to defend themselves against the illegitimate aggression of the Reich, and homosexuals in Uganda have a fundamental (again, if not legally recognized in their country) human right to defend themselves against aggression from a state that targets them, and may soon implement the death penalty, for their sexual orientation.
To the extent that I would generally agree that deadly force is acceptable to meet deadly force, I would say that you aren't wrong in principle about the right to self-defense, even against a tyrannical government. I don't think examples like the Native Americans or the Jews are especially informative here. The Native Americans were (still are) sovereign nations in their own right. They don't present an example of the US government oppressing its own people. Whether Jews were armed or not, ask Poland, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, the Balkans, etc how much weapons helped them hold off the Wehrmacht -- or resist Nazi rule afterward.
Some probably do, but I think most just want to ensure that they at least have some chance. How many people really believed that a bunch of farmers with guns could defeat the British army? I'm sure it seemed fairly improbable at the time.
A bunch of farmers with guns didn't defeat the British army, a bunch of farmers with guns who teamed up with France and Spain defeated the British army.
Hey, I agree. The government will (at least almost) always have you outgunned. But does that mean you just submit to whatever unjust detention, subjugation, or genocide they might care to subject you to? I mean, really? "Well, I'm gay; gay = death penalty; I can't leave the country; I'm just going to let the government murder me." I might not have the balls myself to go down in a blaze of glory on principle, but that's a very fundamentally and I'd argue timeless American ideal, without which we might be drinking tea and enjoying superior healthcare.
I'll have you know I just finished drinking a cup of tea.
Furthermore, invoking "apocalyptic fantasy" strikes me as a little bit of "it can't happen here" naivety. Yes, right now everything looks to be coming up roses for Americans in America. Fears of being unjustly rounded up and sent off to concentration camps or faced with the prospect of government mandated genocide, or an attack from outside, or a military coup or some other collapse of society all seem exceptionally silly. I get that, but I reject the idea that it's impossible, and I certainly reject the idea that America will necessarily be forever a stable democratic republic incapable of engaging in unjust aggression against its citizens because of... what, magic? American exceptionalism? No, I think instability, corruption, and exploitation--even collapse of entire civilizations--can happen anywhere given the proper circumstances, and I think it is only by virtue of the fact that we've been so fortunate for the entirety of living memory that we are capable of rejecting the notion of such a thing outright. For perspective, our biggest political problem is that only 92% of people have jobs. First world problems indeed!
The question is whether guns can forestall those "proper circumstances" or adequately protect us if those circumstances do come to pass -- and if the answer is yes, the next question is whether that adds enough value to outweigh the considerable cost we incur from gun violence every day, right now. "People have been oppressed before, so we might be too" shouldn't be the end of the inquiry, but for so many gun people, it is. Guns are not cost-free. It's not like, oh, well we should keep them around just in case. Asbestos is fire retardant, but it's also fucking carcinogenic, so now we make do without asbestos in our buildings. In a cost/benefit analysis, you can't just ignore the cost side.
That said, does resistance being futile negate the validity of the human right to resist?
No, but nor does the human right to resist remote and inchoate "tyranny" validate a resistance that would almost certainly be futile and which imposes real costs on society right now.
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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A quote so true it has become iconic - If totalitarianism comes to the United States it will come waving the American flag and carrying a bible.

That is how dictatorships work - hyper nationalism and appeals to ancient tradition. Usually accompanied by some ginned up bogus "external threat"

Ya really thing the gun nuts are going to do anything in that situation?
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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mean wrote:That said, does resistance being futile negate the validity of the human right to resist?
I guess we have to balance the rights of theoretical people to resist in an unlikely hypothetical situation with the rights of actual people, alive right now, to not be shot and killed by guns permitted by our current laws.
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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knucklehead wrote:A quote so true it has become iconic - If totalitarianism comes to the United States it will come waving the American flag and carrying a bible.

That is how dictatorships work - hyper nationalism and appeals to ancient tradition. Usually accompanied by some ginned up bogus "external threat"

Ya really thing the gun nuts are going to do anything in that situation?
Absolutely. The idea that guns will protect us from a foriegn power or our own out of control government is just ludicrous. Regardless of the source of the threat (right or left), citizens would never act in accord to oppose the threat. At best, we would have a chaotic civil war worse than the last one between ill-defined combatants motivated by a myriad of political idealogies.

Since 1812, the US has never been seriously threatened by a foriegn power other than the latent threat imposed by the nuclear arsenal of the soviets. The best the Japanese did in 1941 and 1942 was threaten American hegemony in the Pacific; they were hardly a threat to the continental US and nor were the Germans. Guns have been pretty useless at stopping islamist and other terrorist attacks in the US but they certainly have been used by home grown crazies bent of killing as many as possible.

Guns are far more of a threat to each and every one of us than the absence of guns. I am a bit more concerned about the very real possibility of a gun toting thug whacking me in a car jacking or home invasion (things that happen hundreds of times per day in the US) than I am about the remote chance of persecution from totaliterian government where the response from the populace would be mixed at best (I am sure some - if not many- folks with guns would be more than happy to join the persecutors).

What stops totaliterianism? Our national institutions coupled with giving the populace something to live for and the refusal of military to fire on their own friends, brothers and sisters. Not guns.
Last edited by Highlander on Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:20 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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Thanks for posting. Gun control had absolutely nothing to do with the rise of Hitler and the demise of German jews. Much of the gun control came well after persecution had began and jewish people were already leaving the country in large numbers. It's a massive red herring. Some members of the the well armed Wermacht, however, did have guns (and explosives) and attempted on several occasions to assassinate Hitler; all failed.
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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Highlander wrote:
knucklehead wrote:A quote so true it has become iconic - If totalitarianism comes to the United States it will come waving the American flag and carrying a bible.

That is how dictatorships work - hyper nationalism and appeals to ancient tradition. Usually accompanied by some ginned up bogus "external threat"

Ya really thing the gun nuts are going to do anything in that situation?
Absolutely. The idea that guns will protect us from a foriegn power or our own out of control government is just ludicrous. Regardless of the source of the threat (right or left), citizens would never act in accord to oppose the threat. At best, we would have a chaotic civil war worse than the last one between ill-defined combatants motivated by a myriad of political idealogies.

Since 1812, the US has never been seriously threatened by a foriegn power other than the latent threat imposed by the nuclear arsenal of the soviets. The best the Japanese did in 1941 and 1942 was threaten American hegemony in the Pacific; they were hardly a threat to the continental US and nor were the Germans. Guns have been pretty useless at stopping islamist and other terrorist attacks in the US but they certainly have been used by home grown crazies bent of killing as many as possible.

Guns are far more of a threat to each and every one of us than the absence of guns. I am a bit more concerned about the very real possibility of a gun toting thug whacking me in a car jacking or home invasion (things that happen hundreds of times per day in the US) than I am about the remote chance of persecution from totaliterian government where the response from the populace would be mixed at best (I am sure some - if not many- folks with guns would be more than happy to join the persecutors).

What stops totaliterianism? Our national institutions coupled with giving the populace something to live for and the refusal of military to fire on their own friends, brothers and sisters. Not guns.
This in bold is what I was thinking while reading Knucklehead's quote. I haven't read through this thread from the beginning, so I don't know if it was touched on, but having recently read about the possibility of the purpose of the 2nd Amendment being to ensure that southern states were able to field militias to put down the possibilities of slave revolts is intriguing. I do not know if I believe it to be the case, because I would think I would have read of it before, but it is consistent with the compromise that was pervasive in the writing of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, especially in regards to slavery, and is really the only way that the marriage of the well regulated militia and individual rights clauses makes sense. (And I do not believe that the purpose of the 2nd Amendment was so that the rabble could overthrow the strikingly undemocratic government created by the founding fathers). While the original reasons for the 2nd Amendment are largely irrelevant today, I do think that a parallel can be drawn between the motives of many (not all- and I do not mean this as necessarily racist so much as xenophobic fear of the "other"- possibly tied to the coming minority-majority) on the pro-2nd Amendment side to today and those who felt the need to create slave-militias at the time. I would like to know how many of those who are so insistent on the rights of the individual to bear arms were defending it when the Black Panthers entered the California State Assembly?
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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Missouri bill would mandate teaching of NRA course to first graders: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/01/29/40 ... e-gun.html
The bill would mandate the teaching of the National Rifle Association’s Eddie Eagle Gunsafe Program in every first-grade classroom. It also would require teachers to take eight hours of training on responding to an armed intruder.
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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And people think I am crazy when I say a lot of older males are obessed with guns.

The teaching NRA courses in the first grade bill is a perfect example.

This is an attempt by a sleezy politician to get votes from nuts that are obsessed with guns.

the politican is sleezy, his target audience is nutty.

The interesting thing about all of this is trying to understand what drives the irrational behavior of the gun nuts. In other words, what underlying insecurity or other issue is manifesting itself in this weird behavior pattern.

We are all students of human nature to some degree. This makes an interesting case study.

One new theory I have been thinking about is the power of suggesting a threat. Politicians have been doing this for generations to manipulate public opinion (See the propanda campaign leading up to the Iraq war, it was a dozy and transparently obvious. Mushroom clouds?). It is best illustrated by an example. Back in the 1980s they still had flight insurance kiosks at airports. They were just terminals where you bought flight insurance with a credit card. Now the flight insurance was a terrible deal, just stupid. The risk you airplane was going to crash was almost nil. But by placing the kiosk in the airport and thereby bringing the threat of a crash into the mind of the travelers, they apparently were able to succor people into buying the insurance. It worked on ignorance and pyschology. Just suggesting the threat caused the demand for the product, not matter how low of a probability the threat actually was. A majority of the people would properly evaluate the threat and decline to buy the insurance. But a predictble percentage of the passingers would mis-evaluate the threat and buy the insurance. Those fools were the basis for the industry.

We saw some of the same thing with the terrorism propaganda of the early 2000s. People were supposedly sealing their houses against the threat of chemical weapons, all based on the drumbeat of propaganda raising this extremely remote threat into their consciousness.

Our media plays up threats with its obsessive coverage of local crime. This may magnify the need for a gun in the minds of some through the same mechanisms that worked with flight insurance. Makes you wonder if the drum beat of propaganda on "we need guns because we may have to overthrow a dictatorship" and "Obama is a dictator" are really gun manufacturer marketing ploys?

I assume marketing classes teach the flight insurance example. So why wouldn't the marketing departments of the gun manufacturers use the same tactics?

It is true that the gun control advocates use some of the same tactics - raising low probablilty threats of mass murders using assualt weapons to raise that threat in the minds of voters. But I don't see many people in the general population that are obsessed with that threat to the extent that gun nuts are obsessed with guns. Most people understand that greezy high fat fast food kills a lot more people in this country than guns ever will.

Gun control is not a big issue with me. But the behaviors surrounding the issue provide an interesting study in human behavior.
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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That's a double edged sword. There is no shortage of ignorance-based fear and irrationality among rabid anti-gun nuts, as well. What has always troubled me, as a leftist, about the gun control position taken by much of the supposedly "progressive" side of the argument is how much of their decision-making regarding guns is based on an ideological opposition to guns coupled with an ignorance of even the most basic knowledge of firearms. I had always kind of thought ideological, as opposed to data-driven, policy and decision making was the purview of the right, but the hysterical fear of guns (held by an admittedly small minority) has been a refreshing reminder how juvenile the left is as well.
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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knucklehead wrote:The interesting thing about all of this is trying to understand what drives the irrational behavior of the gun nuts. In other words, what underlying insecurity or other issue is manifesting itself in this weird behavior pattern.
I've tried to explain this in fairly extensive detail. Apparently I've failed, so let me just lay it out for you. The insecurity in question is nothing less than insecurity surrounding the stability of society, or even civilization as we know it. I know this doesn't seem particularly rational, but bear in mind we're talking about people who think (and are constantly being told via relentless email forwards and message boards you don't read) that Obama was installed as president due to a conspiracy with the Islamic world to put a Muslim president in place who would implement a Marxist ideology, destroy the American economy, take away our guns, foster a UN takeover of the federal government, and make us all slaves to some despotic New World Order.

I don't buy any of that, for the record. Not even close. But I do read their emails and blog posts and forums, so I kinda get it, and I'm sympathetic to some of the underlying principles even if I think the rationalization is insane in context. It would be really easy to just dismiss them as ridiculous, but more than anything, I feel sorry for them. Hence my desire to try and futilely explain here.

In any event, I'm completely gassed as far as trying to represent their viewpoint and make it sympathetic to a crowd that clearly has no sympathy. It's like trying to explain Obamacare to my grandpa:

"They aren't crazy, they're just trying to do what's best as they see it! And it could help you!"

"God damn Socialists."
chingon wrote:What has always troubled me, as a leftist, about the gun control position taken by much of the supposedly "progressive" side of the argument is how much of their decision-making regarding guns is based on an ideological opposition to guns coupled with an ignorance of even the most basic knowledge of firearms. I had always kind of thought ideological, as opposed to data-driven, policy and decision making was the purview of the right, but the hysterical fear of guns (held by an admittedly small minority) has been a refreshing reminder how juvenile the left is as well.
Touche.

Anyone wanna go shooting?
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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Even the old assault weapons ban that was supposedly riddled with loopholes was evidently not as ineffective as its opponents would have you believe:
Myths About Gun Regulation - NYTimes.com wrote:A long–range, independent study issued as Congress allowed the ban to expire in 2004 found criminal use of assault weapons had fallen by one-third or more as a share of gun crimes in major jurisdictions.

The information is there if Congress is interested. After the ban expired, 37 percent of police departments reported noticeable increases in criminals’ use of assault weapons, according to a 2010 report by the Police Executive Research Forum.

In Virginia, the number of guns with high-capacity magazines seized by police dropped after they were included in the 1994 weapons ban, but then rebounded sharply after the ban expired, according to a 2011 study by The Washington Post. Maryland enacted its own more stringent ban on assault weapons in 1994, and a 55 percent drop in assault pistols from crime scenes was reported by the Baltimore police.
Maybe bans can accomplish something, even if "something" is not the complete eradication of gun crimes.
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

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Maybe! Does correlation equal causation here? I would expect the NYT to claim it does, and the WashPo to claim it doesn't. And they do: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/won ... -one-post/
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

Post by phuqueue »

That Washington Post column doesn't come anywhere close to discussing the same stats that are present in that NYT column. The NYT stats speak specifically to the use of assault weapons during and after the ban. While they were banned, use fell, even despite all the loopholes undermining the efficacy of the ban. When the ban was lifted, use began to rise again. "Correlation doesn't equal causation" is certainly true, but correlation can be very suggestive. That Washington Post article only asserts that there was probably no causative link between the assault weapons ban and the drop in gun violence in general (it also says that it isn't clear whether the assault weapons ban should be credited for the drop in mass shootings, but notes that the fact that mass shootings have skyrocketed since it ended is "suggestive"). It doesn't say anything about how the ban may have affected the use of assault weapons in particular.

If you pass a law like the assault weapons ban, which bans only a particular class of weapon, and even then includes myriad loopholes and exceptions, and that class of weapon is not even commonly used in your run of the mill gun crimes (per your Post column, only used in about 2-8% of gun crimes), you probably can't reasonably expect a significant impact on overall crime rates. On the other hand if the ban is still effective as to its substance -- ie even despite all the loopholes, you record a significant reduction in the use of assault weapons -- it is highly suggestive that farther-reaching legislation could have farther-reaching effects.
mean
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

Post by mean »

Right. So, we can conclude that banning assault rifles may or may not have influenced, but likely was coincidental to, an overall drop in violent crime. It may or may not have, but is somewhat more likely to have, effected a decrease in "mass shootings". That "mass shootings" have skyrocketed since the ban ended could be correlated to the lifting of the ban, but it is unclear what percentage of said mass shootings were committed with previously banned weapons. If every "mass shooting" since 2004 was committed with a previously banned weapon, that would certainly be suggestive, but I would still have to wonder how much non-ban factors such as increased political divisiveness, increased stridency and paranoia among the gun-nutters and survivalists, increasing lack of civility in political discourse, and various other things play into it.

Should a new ban go into effect, and "mass shootings" continue to "skyrocket" (or plummet) I suppose we'll have a clearer answer.
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

Post by chaglang »

mean wrote:Should a new ban go into effect, and "mass shootings" continue to "skyrocket" (or plummet) I suppose we'll have a clearer answer.
No, we won't. Or, I should say, it will be clearer only for some people. It depends on how you view the issue at this moment, before the next assault weapons restrictions come into place. If non-ban factors give you enough pause that you write ...
If every "mass shooting" since 2004 was committed with a previously banned weapon, that would certainly be suggestive, but I would still have to wonder how much non-ban factors such as increased political divisiveness, increased stridency and paranoia among the gun-nutters and survivalists, increasing lack of civility in political discourse, and various other things play into it.
... then I don't foresee a situation that will control for outside factors and present a convincingly clear case to you.

There’s polling that tracks a lot of the factors that you mention. It would be possible to graph the whole thing. It still wouldn’t prove causation. But it might make the relationships clearer. FWIW, I don’t remember the late Clinton years and first Bush administration as lacking for political divisiveness, stridency, or paranoia.
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Re: Newtown shooting and gun control

Post by mean »

It will be clearer for people interested in drawing conclusions based on an increasing body of evidence. I would find it at least somewhat persuasive, if not convincing.
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