2012 Election

[phxcat]

So 538 is predicting 314 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote for Obama, and half the states. Is that a mandate? Or at least high ground in dealing with congress going forward?

I'm not sure we'll see a "mandate" again for a really long time, without the President's coattails giving him both houses of Congress.

No matter who wins the WH, working with Congress is still going to be a huge challenge.

I don't think we have really had a true mandate since '84, and I don't think we will have one for a long time. By all rights, Obama won in a landslide in '08, but there is just a huge percentage of the population that refuses to admit that he is the rightful President, much less that are willing to accept his leadership. This is a very toxic environment, but I really don't see it changing.

[zlohban]

GALLUP PARTY ID

2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008 -- Except That Party Affiliation
Is now GOP +3 Instead of Dems +12






Words to watch out for post-election-

Coal
Evangelicals / Catholics
Mothers / Married Women
Failed / Mistaken Wisconsin Recall Election

[zlohban]

The first real poll is midnight tonight in Dixville Notch.

Shortly after midnight in 2008 the vote was Obama 15 and McCain 6

[chaglang]

Dixville Notch: 5-5 tie. Apparently there are only 12 voters up there anymore. Looking at their voting history, I can see why. It's damn hard to find original Goldwater Republicans anymore:
2004: Bush 19, Kerry 7
2000: Bush 21, Gore 5
1996: Dole 18, Clinton 8
1992: Bush 15, Perot 8, Marrou 5, Clinton 2
1988: Bush 34, Dukakis 4
1984: Reagan 29, Mondale 1
1980: Reagan 17, Carter 3
1976: Ford 13, Carter 11
1972: Nixon 16, McGovern 3
1968: Humphrey 8, Nixon 4
1964: Goldwater 8, Johnson 1
1960: Nixon 9, Kennedy 0

[AllThingsKC]

I got to my polling place at 5:40am. I was the 5 person in line. By the time I left at 6:15am, there was easily over 200 people waiting in line.

For those of you voting today, how's it looking at your polling place?

[phxcat]

GALLUP PARTY ID

2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008 -- Except That Party Affiliation
Is now GOP +3 Instead of Dems +12






Words to watch out for post-election-

Coal
Evangelicals / Catholics
Mothers / Married Women
Failed / Mistaken Wisconsin Recall Election

That shows the problem with Gallup right there. There were not more Republicans than Democrats in 2004.

My predictions:

Obama 303 Romney235
I think the Hispanic vote is being undervalued in the Southwest. Nevada would go D anyway, but this will push Colorado into the D column. Michigan, Minnesota and really Wisconsin and Pennsylvania too (thought they are closer) are not real swing states, never really were. Obama has been up in virtually all of the polling in Ohio, though they do have a sleazy SOS who is trying to steal the election, but they do have a lot of lawyers on the ground trying to stop him, and I will also give him Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia will be the closest, but will go blue. Florida is a coin toss, but I will say Romney, and North Carolina i barely a swing state- would have been if not forthe first debate, but really not any more.

Senate: D/I 55; R 45

Democratic/ Inependent pickups: IN, MO, MA, ME; losses: NE; Dems hold VA, FL, WI, CN, OH; Dems will take two of NV (probable), AZ (looking like Flake) MT, ND. I feel like I am missing something, not wure what it is, but I think this would give it Dems 56. Maybe they will only take Nevada from the four.

House- not enough polling to know, but without a wave, which this will not be, Rs keep it easily.

[brewcrew1000]

Dixville Notch: 5-5 tie. Apparently there are only 12 voters up there anymore.

Maybe they didn't have 100% voter turnout

[shinatoo]

Already hearing about 3 hour lines in Lee's Summit. I blame Obama.

It's probably a bunch of retirees showing up early. You know, the ones that have nothing to do all week, but decide to pack Wal-Mart and Hy-Vee on Saturday morning.

Glad I voted early. Maybe this will trigger real early voting in MO. Although that might be hard to pass in a Red state.

[zlohban]

Dixville Notch: 5-5 tie. Apparently there are only 12 voters up there anymore.

Maybe they didn't have 100% voter turnout

They actually had 100% turnout. Tough four years for Dixville Notch.

[zlohban]

I'm standing in a line of elderly / retired folks stretching out the door.





Akin will win. Nixon will win

Key words for all the red shown:

Coal
Evangelicals / Catholics
Mothers / Married Women
Failed Wisconsin Recall

[chaglang]

^You should absolutely put money on that. $2 will get you $30 at 14:1.

[AllThingsKC]

I have a hard time seeing either candidate get over 300 electoral votes.

[bobbyhawks]

I have a hard time seeing either candidate get over 300 electoral votes.

The odds say at this point that the most likely outcome (per 538 blog) is Obama over 300.

My polling place is almost always completely dead. It took me around 15 minutes to vote, which is the longest it has ever taken me. I normally vote at the end of the day, so it could be due to the time of day. Also of anecdotal note, I was one of probably <10% white people at this location. I'm not sure how downtown voting locations are distributed, but I think this is expected in the Westside.

[zlohban]

Just published, Suffolk Polling likes to poll key bellwether counties in pivotal states. In Lake County, Ohio, Cleveland area, polling data November 1-4th.

Romney 47%

Obama 43%

Suffolk Polling again same dates. These two New Hampshire towns, Epping and Milford, have mirrored the statewide New Hampshire vote in four out of four times.

Epping, New Hampshire

Romney 49%

Obama 47%

Milford, New Hampshire

Romney 51%

Obama 46%

[AllThingsKC]

I have a hard time seeing either candidate get over 300 electoral votes.

The odds say at this point that the most likely outcome (per 538 blog) is Obama over 300.

If Obama wins, I can see him winning 290-248 in the best case. So, 300+ isn't that much different I suppose. But given how close the polls seem to be, 300+ for either candidate sounds high to me.

[chaglang]

We had 50-60 people in line at our polling place at 37th and Woodland. Much higher turnout than I was expecting.

[chrizow]

i arrived at st. paul's at 43rd/main around 7:30am and there were probably 20 people waiting and 20 people voting - to my delight, there was no one in the H-O line at all, so I was able to get right in and out in 5 minutes, tops.

[cknab1]

I voted in the National Archives building by Union Station. I got there about 7:00 am and it took about 40 minutes, Not too bad. Saw DaveKCMO in line.

[smh]

Took about 30 minutes at Don Bosco Center in Columbus Park. Lots of people in line.

[brewcrew1000]

Has there ever been an election in which the Electors choosen by the Electoral college switched it vote? For some reason I could see that happening this year