Election 2010

[phxcat]

Jeb Bush's name being thrown around for a republican candidate in 2012.  Frankly, Jeb was the brother that should have been president 8 years ago.  More articulate and comes across significantly brighter than his older brother.  Republicans like him because of his sway with hispanic voters (from Florida Governor days).  For his part, he says he has no plans to run.   

That would be interesting- I agree (and most probably do) that he would have been the better choice.  The effect on Hispanic voters would be interesting- the party as a whole seems to have turned their backs on that growing voting block, which really hasn't been much of a block when you consider the many differences in various groups- but is becoming one because of laws such as SB 1070 and support for repeal of the citizenship clause of the 14th Amendment.  Though Hispanics, even Mexican, are not necessarily in favor of illegal immigration, most see laws such as these as antagonistic toward the entire group.  On the other hand, W got somewhere around 1/3 of the Hispanic vote and I would imagine that Jeb would be more popular than most other possibilities.  Would that have a down ballot effect?

[aknowledgeableperson]

If things go well look for another Floridian on the ticket in 2012 - Rubio.

[DaveKCMO]

[LenexatoKCMO]

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/12/01/ ... tml?hpt=T1

Anyone else think this could backfire on them a bit?  If this really comes to a drug out, ugly fight with the media fueling lots of fear, I have a hard time figuring that popular opinion is going to swing in favor of the guy risking middle class tax brackets to stubbornly fight for the top tax bracket. 

[aknowledgeableperson]

Given the election results popular opinion is already on the GOP side.  So, the question is can the Dems get enough pressure out there in order to swing the public to its side?  Right now, given the majorities the Dems have in the lame duck session, the Dems need to get the ball rolling and start the legislative process of keeping the tax cuts for everyone except the upper crust - something they have yet to do.

[LenexatoKCMO]

Given the election results popular opinion is already on the GOP side. 

Polls pretty clearly indicated that wasn't actually the case.  What sort of goodwill will the pubs have left after the middle class start shitting their pants about a tax hike being foisted on them to keep a few bucks in the top tier?

[aknowledgeableperson]

Polls pretty clearly indicated that wasn't actually the case. 

Well, since the GOP won the majority of the House, gained 6 Senate seats, have a majority of the governorships, plus majorities in many state chambers it would appear that the one poll that counts the GOP does have popular opinion on its side.

And, as I said, what is keeping the Dems from acting on entending the tax cuts for all except the upper tier now?

[bobbyhawks]

Well, since the GOP won the majority of the House, gained 6 Senate seats, have a majority of the governorships, plus majorities in many state chambers it would appear that the one poll that counts the GOP does have popular opinion on its side.

I think the only thing that is clear is that people were unhappy with the way things were.  They voted for change, and it is impossible to tell how many of those votes were based on being generally unhappy with the status quo and how many were specifically pro-Republican.  Unfortunately, a two party system often lends itself to voting against something, rather than for someone.

[aknowledgeableperson]

I think the only thing that is clear is that people were unhappy with the way things were.  They voted for change,

And that change was against the Dems.  Now whether it changes back in two years only time will tell but that still doesn't alter what happened in early Nov.

[LenexatoKCMO]

I wasn't really looking to respark debate about what happened last month - I was looking to discuss who is going to bear the blame when folks start sweating the expiration.  AKP apparently feels that the GOP mandate is so clear cut that a majority of folks are right on board with risking their own tax exposure to save the top bracket folks some pain.  I am skeptical myself.  This seems like the sort of stance that the dems ought to be able turn around opinion on pretty easily if they have any political skill left at all. 

[phuqueue]

And, as I said, what is keeping the Dems from acting on entending the tax cuts for all except the upper tier now?

The same obstructionist tactics that have kept the Dems from doing a lot of things they wanted to do, or forced them to water things down.  The GOP has decided that super majorities are needed to get anything passed in the Senate now.  The Dems can't do anything without strict party discipline plus a handful of Republican defectors.  The GOP has already declared it will not cooperate on any legislation during the lame duck session until the tax issue is resolved -- they're going to use their clout for that but then fold on how it's resolved?  It's not a matter of the Republicans taking their ball home and refusing to play, they're doing everything they can to block access to the field in the first place.  The GOP strategy has become to deny Obama any legislative victory whatsoever, even when that legislative victory would be good for the country (see the ridiculous debate over the new START treaty, which has been endorsed by virtually everybody who's looked at it, including high-ranking officials under various presidents from both parties over the past several decades, and which has already been the subject of extensive discussion and deliberation, but which Senate Republicans alone fear is still too muddled by question marks -- they can now only claim vaguely that there are still unknown issues to iron out, because Obama already accepted their earlier demand that billions of dollars be invested in upgrading and modernizing our existing nuclear forces in exchange for ratification of the treaty).

And that change was against the Dems.  Now whether it changes back in two years only time will tell but that still doesn't alter what happened in early Nov.

Change was against a tattered economy, not for or against any particular political party.  2008 was not some resounding rejection of the Republican Party in and of itself, just of the horrific mess the party had gotten us into.  2010 is not about rejecting the Dems (or their intention to cut taxes for the middle class), it's about recognizing that the mess hasn't been cleaned up yet and looking for an alternative solution.  Of course the only alternative was the group that got us here in the first place, but I guess if you're stuck on the Titanic you may as well amuse yourself by rearranging the deck chairs to pass the time.

The end result is the same so maybe the debate about what was or wasn't being rejected is inconsequential -- except to the extent that Lenexa makes a pretty valid point that if the GOP screws over the middle class on this tax issue, they might run into popular backlash.  Unfortunately they've got two years to cover their asses before they'd actually feel any effect from it.

[aknowledgeableperson]

The same obstructionist tactics that have kept the Dems from doing a lot of things they wanted to do, or forced them to water things down

That is a bunch of bull.  The Dems have the numbers now to pass the legislation in the House and force the issue on the GOP in the Senate.  But, guess what, not even the House is moving on the issue.  The House got health care and cap and trade so why can it not get tax cuts extended for all except the upper tier?  Pass it out of the House, Obama announce he is willing to sign it, and force the Senate GOP to a vote on a filibuster.  Get them on record.  Afterall, Mitch has said in the past he was willing to vote for not extending the tax cuts to the top tier if that is how it has to be so force him, and others, to actually vote that way.
The Dems can force it if they want to, they just don't want to.  That's all.  Guess they don't have the votes to getit out of a lame duck House.

[grovester]

akp you're being disingenuous.  What the majority wants to happen and, in fact, will happen, is a 2 year extension on all cuts due to the fragility of the economy.  The dems will make the opposition defend tax cuts for the rich in an election year.  Everything else is posturing.

[phxcat]

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/12/01/ ... tml?hpt=T1

Anyone else think this could backfire on them a bit?  If this really comes to a drug out, ugly fight with the media fueling lots of fear, I have a hard time figuring that popular opinion is going to swing in favor of the guy risking middle class tax brackets to stubbornly fight for the top tax bracket. 

It probably depends on how the Dems play it.  Make the Dream Act fight (and the lack of Republican support, though it looks like they may get enough to vote cloture) visible- every year that the Hispanic population grows and the Dems fight for them while the Republicans stand against bills like that will strengthen the hand of the Dems.  Make a show of trying to get the cuts passed for the lower tiers and show America that the only thing standing in the way of that the Republican obstructionism.  Get in front of the cameras and explain why extending tax cuts to the lower tiers will be more beneficial to the economy than extending the cuts to the upper incomes.  Now, will the Dems do these things?  Probably not.

[phuqueue]

That is a bunch of bull.  The Dems have the numbers now to pass the legislation in the House and force the issue on the GOP in the Senate.  But, guess what, not even the House is moving on the issue.  The House got health care and cap and trade so why can it not get tax cuts extended for all except the upper tier?  Pass it out of the House, Obama announce he is willing to sign it, and force the Senate GOP to a vote on a filibuster.  Get them on record.  Afterall, Mitch has said in the past he was willing to vote for not extending the tax cuts to the top tier if that is how it has to be so force him, and others, to actually vote that way.
The Dems can force it if they want to, they just don't want to.  That's all.  Guess they don't have the votes to getit out of a lame duck House.

I don't entirely disagree -- over the past couple years the Dems have taken the mere threat of filibuster as reason enough not to bother fighting in the first place.  They definitely need to pull themselves together and make a concerted push for the policies they claim to support.  Nonetheless, GOP obstructionism is not an illusion.  The simple fact is the Dems don't have the numbers to pass it in the Senate unless the Republicans decide to let it go through.  I agree with you that they should be forcing the issue, maybe McConnell will cave (and they won't know unless they at least make a run at it), but when you just ask "what's to keep them from extending cuts for the middle class," the answer is the GOP.

[aknowledgeableperson]

but when you just ask "what's to keep them from extending cuts for the middle class," the answer is the GOP.

The answer is the Dems.  Right now both sides are just talking, something that is done all the time on all issues.  What has not happened on the tax topic is action, something the Dems can do and have failed to do up to this time.  And my guess is the lack of action is due to the Dems not having the votes in the House or it is their desire to drag it out.  The Dems control the agenda, not the GOP.

[KCMax]

The answer is the Dems.  Right now both sides are just talking, something that is done all the time on all issues.  What has not happened on the tax topic is action, something the Dems can do and have failed to do up to this time.  And my guess is the lack of action is due to the Dems not having the votes in the House or it is their desire to drag it out.  The Dems control the agenda, not the GOP.

Weren't you the one complaining how health care was "rammed" through without discussion (even though there had been discussion for months?)

[aknowledgeableperson]

So.

Think the argument was more to the fact that the Dems did have the votes, before Brown was elected, to do as they please but still couldn't get it done without a long dragged out dealmaking within its own party.  They didn't need GOP support.

[LenexatoKCMO]

Apparently the Dems got your message loud and clear AKP:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20 ... ap/?hpt=T2

And this is the Republican response:

"I'm trying to catch my breath so I don't refer to this maneuver going on today as chicken crap, all right? But this is nonsense, all right?" Boehner told reporters Thursday.

Boehner argued that Democrats were ignoring the message from voters last month who shifted control of the House of Representatives to Republicans.

[LenexatoKCMO]

Passed in the House.  No we get to see just how much The Pubs want to fight.