Election 2010

[AllThingsKC]

So far, this mid-term election is looking to be very exciting for both sides, if you ask me.


You have the Tea Party firing up he GOP vote, and Obama focusing on the Black & Hispanic vote by calling the Tea Party racist.  Of course, the Tea Party could hurt the GOP if it starts to act more like a 3rd party.  We have Arizona's immigration law and the worst oil spill in U. S. history.  Fun, fun, fun!

I cannot wait to see how this all plays out...

[KCMax]

Obama focusing on the Black & Hispanic vote by calling the Tea Party racist. 

Cite? I cannot find any quote where he says that.

[dangerboy]

You have the Tea Party firing up he GOP vote

Actually the teabaggers are damaging the GOP more than firing it up.

[AllThingsKC]

Cite? I cannot find any quote where he says that.

Oops, my mistake.   CORRECTION:  Liberals, the NAACP, et all calling the Tea Party racist.  Not Obama specifically.

[AllThingsKC]

Actually the teabaggers are damaging the GOP more than firing it up.

I would have disagree based on all the polls I've seen.  However, if you are correct, the Dems have nothing to worry about then?

This is why I am looking forward to the election.  It could go either way.  Ok, any election could go either way, but still...

[dangerboy]

I would have disagree based on all the polls I've seen.  However, if you are correct, the Dems have nothing to worry about then?

Citations for those polls?

[AllThingsKC]

Citations for those polls?

Do you have citations on how the Tea Party is hurting the GOP?  I mean, for all I know, they could be hurting the GOP.  But, not based on the polls that I, personally, have seen.  The only way I see the Tea Party hurting the GOP is if it starts to act as a 3rd party. - And that is very possible.

Here are some of the polls I have that would suggest the Tea Party is helping the GOP:

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf ... do_yo.html

http://www.flatheadbeacon.com/articles/ ... ent/17212/

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30298.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl1017

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20 ... n-dems-gop

[DaveKCMO]

http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/atlas/ ... =rightrail

[KCMax]

Do you have citations on how the Tea Party is hurting the GOP?  

Just one example, but in the KY Senate race for Jim Bunning's seat, it was assumed the GOP would easily keep this seat if establishment candidate Tray Grayson won. He lost to Tea Party candidate Rand Paul. Paul made some controversial statements upon his victory, and now the race is down to a few points between him and his Dem opponent and the seat is considered in-play.

Another example - Harry Reid trailed by double digits in hypothetical matchups against GOP establishment candidate Sue Lowden. Instead, Tea Party candidate Sharon Angle won and she is neck and neck with Reid and has already suffered a series of gaffes that has given him more of a chance.

I think that is what will be the achilles heel for a lot of these Tea Party candidates. When you elect "outsiders" without much political experience, you're asking for gaffe-prone candidates with no political skill. See Funkhouser, Mark.

I think the Dems are in for a bad November, but it probably won't be as bad as many GOPers are probably giddy dreaming up, and I predict they barely hold onto the House by a slim margin. And I don't see how the GOP is able to reclaim the Senate, although we should get used to constant filibusters.

[KCMax]

Here are some of the polls I have that would suggest the Tea Party is helping the GOP:

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf ... do_yo.html

http://www.flatheadbeacon.com/articles/ ... ent/17212/

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30298.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl1017

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20 ... n-dems-gop

The problem with these polls are:

1. Yes, people are dissatisfied with Congress. They are ALWAYS dissatisfied with Congress. But they are nearly always satisfied with THEIR Congressman. There is a reason incumbents win some 95% of the time.

2. People support the Tea Party movement - although its not clear they know what the Tea Party stands for. What they see on TV is a lot of people upset with how things are going. And many people are upset with how things are going. So they think "hey, I must support the tea party." But they don't really get what its about, as evidenced by this Tea Party protester:

?I like what they?re saying. It?s common sense,? a random man-in-the-crowd told a Los Angeles Times reporter at a big Tea Party rally. Then he added, ?They?ve got to focus on issues like keeping jobs here and lowering the cost of prescription drugs.? These, of course, are projects that can be conducted only by Big Government. If the Tea Party Patriots ever developed a coherent platform or agenda, they would lose half their supporters.

Or this one:



Or this poll.

62 percent say programs like Social Security and Medicare are worth the costs to taxpayers.

Which of course is at odds with a group that supposedly wants less government and less debt.

So its not surprising when times are tough, for people to want to be part of a group of people that want change. Worked for Obama. And it may even work for one election cycle. But if anything, the Tea Party is a flavor of the week that will be here today and gone tomorrow, and will have no lasting effect other than perhaps to kick out moderate Republicans and alienate moderates.

[zlohban]

In my honest opinion, President Obama does not want the Democrats to retain the house after the 2010 elections.  My opinion is based on Bill Clinton's successful second term bid where he had the republican opposition to run against. Obama also needs to run against a Republican Congress in 2012.  He needs to be able to point at someone else, besides Bush, and blame them for any of his shortcomings as a leader.  Having a republican house will keep the media busy condemning each and every idea they propose keeping the heat off the White House.  Obama owes the democrat party very little since he is relatively unknown and has a brief political pedigree.

[NDTeve]

In my honest opinion, President Obama does not want the Democrats to retain the house after the 2010 elections.  My opinion is based on Bill Clinton's successful second term bid where he had the republican opposition to run against. Obama also needs to run against a Republican Congress in 2012.  He needs to be able to point at someone else, besides Bush, and blame them for any of his shortcomings as a leader.  Having a republican house will keep the media busy condemning each and every idea they propose keeping the heat off the White House.  Obama owes the democrat party very little since he is relatively unknown and has a brief political pedigree.

Not exactly great leadership or "changing the tone in Washington."

[LenexatoKCMO]

Do you have citations on how the Tea Party is hurting the GOP?  

As a Republican, who would you rather have squaring off against Carnahan in a tight MO Senate race? The very electable Roy Blunt?  Or the Tea Party crackpot Purgason who just spent the last 24 hours making a fool of himself trying to get the Claycomo ford plant shut down while he stands up with his bad dye job, bolo tie, and rambles on about chuck norris?  Thanks to all that "momentum" and "firing up" the tea party is bringing the Repubs, there is a real possibility you may wind up with option #2 and no citations will be necessary to answer the question of "how is the Tea Party hurting the GOP?". 

[chrizow]

speaking of crazy people, has anyone caught jim lepper's act?  he is running against jolie justus for missouri's 10th district senate seat.  he is running as a "democrat" but he's really a frothing at the mouth conservative.  he came to the hyde park neighborhood association meeting last month and made a complete fool of himself.  protip:  if you are fervently anti-gay and homophobic, you may not want to play up that angle in hyde park, particularly when midtown darling jolie justus is in the room.

[phxcat]

I think that the effect of the tea party will be fairly localized and could cut both ways.  In general, it has provided a vehicle to ginned up outrage, and to give a direction to those who oppose Obama but don't know why.  The most important factor in an off year election is GOTV, and the Tea Party will probably help to do that, but most of those who are involved in the Tea Party are ideologically Republican and were probably activated anyway.  On the other hand, the craziness of the tea party may keep more moderate Republicans away from general elections, especially in races such as NV and KY senate.  In those cases, the tea party has taken a possible takeover (though both Republicans in that primary were nuts) to a probably safe Democratic seat, and turned a probably safe Republican hold into a very possible Democratic takeover.  In general, where the tea Party has won primaries, it will hurt Republicans in the general, as it will keep moderates away from the Republicans.  It is also probably diverting a ton of money that could be spent in general elections to primary elections.  However, in races where there was not a Tea party challenge, the tea parties will probably serve to motivate right wing voters a bit, depending on the local conditions.

Arizona will be interesting.  The Tea Party mentality is probably at least partially responsible for the immigration bill, and Jan Brewer, who probably had little chance to win the Republican nomination because nobody really liked her on either side of the aisle prior to SB 1070, now will be the Republican nominee and may be favored to win the election.  Arizona will have a very fired up electorate in the general, but 1070 could very well come back and bit the Republicans as the Hispanic vote will surely be mobilized to a much larger degree than normal. 

In my honest opinion, President Obama does not want the Democrats to retain the house after the 2010 elections.  My opinion is based on Bill Clinton's successful second term bid where he had the republican opposition to run against. Obama also needs to run against a Republican Congress in 2012.  He needs to be able to point at someone else, besides Bush, and blame them for any of his shortcomings as a leader.  Having a republican house will keep the media busy condemning each and every idea they propose keeping the heat off the White House.  Obama owes the democrat party very little since he is relatively unknown and has a brief political pedigree.

While it is true that many Americans fail to recognize the fact that the Republican senate minority is enough to obstruct any legislation they choose to through abuse of the filibuster, even though the media has taken to skipping over the filibuster narrative and has taken to referring to 60 votes as the requirement to pass legislation, you are right that Obama has been far too much of an accommodationist and has not been enough of an LBJ to get in the faces of senators such as Nelson and Lincoln who choose not to vote for cloture, then vote against the actual bill.  That is where criticism of his executive experience (although he had plenty of legislative experience) has been well founded.

[LenexatoKCMO]

I have to love the irony of a group that on the one hand is howling mad about "government intervention", litterally begging and insisting that the government intervene and prevent the construction of a religious temple.  Hypocrites much? 

[kcjak]

speaking of crazy people, has anyone caught jim lepper's act?  he is running against jolie justus for missouri's 10th district senate seat.  he is running as a "democrat" but he's really a frothing at the mouth conservative.  he came to the hyde park neighborhood association meeting last month and made a complete fool of himself.  protip:  if you are fervently anti-gay and homophobic, you may not want to play up that angle in hyde park, particularly when midtown darling jolie justus is in the room.

This sounds juicy - I'd love to hear more details.

[KCMax]

Just a bunch of random stuff:

Nevada Polling

But where Lowden trailed Reid only 51-41 with moderate voters, Angle is facing a 64-28 deficit. The price of nominating Angle for Nevada Republicans appears to be 26 points with moderate voters.

Democrats Jump Into Six-Point Lead on Generic Ballot

It also shows GOP voters have more "enthusiasm." I'm also very wary of "generic ballot" polls since there is no generic Republican or Democratic candidate - everyone has a record that can be campaigned against and personalities matter.

Senate Forecast, 7/18: Republican Outlook Improves with Focus on Likely Voter Polls

Our latest Senate simulation has the chamber convening in 2011 with an average of 53.4 Democrats (counting Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders), 46.1 Republicans, and 0.5  Charlie Crists...

The model gives Republicans a 17 percent chance of taking over the Senate if Charlie Crist caucuses with them, up significantly from 6 percent three weeks ago. If Crist does not caucus with them, their chances of a takeover are 12 percent.

MSNBC: House Play

The Cook Political Report identifies 64 Democratic-held seats as either ?Lean? or ?Toss-up? races, and Republicans would need to win a majority of them (39) to win control of the House. Indeed, there are four reasons why the House is up for grabs: 1) according to history, the GOP stands to pick up seats; 2) Republicans enjoy a significant enthusiasm advantage; 3) Democrats are losing the independent vote; and 4) much of the House battleground will play in white/rural districts, where Obama isn?t performing well.

But we also can list another four reasons why the GOP won?t win back the House: 1) Unlike in ?94, the Republican Party has a fav/unfav score that's no better (and sometimes event worse) than the Dem Party?s; 2) Unlike in ?94, the GOP isn?t necessarily running on new ideas or even with many new faces; 3) the National Republican Congressional Committee has a HUGE financial disadvantage compared with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and the RNC?s political/fundraising troubles won?t be able to make up the difference; and 4) winning 39 seats is a tall order.

Republicans Regional Recipe

To regain control of the House, the GOP must flip a significant number of Democratic-leaning seats in two key regions where Republicans were once competitive, but lately have not been.

Obama's Approval Rating in-line with most other modern Presidents

Obama's approval rating sits at about 43-46% depending on who you ask. Most modern Presidents were at 40-45% at this point with two exceptions - the Bushes. And Bush I was preparing for the Persian Gulf War at this point, while Bush II was dealing with the aftermath of 9/11.

Gallup had Reagan at 37% at this point in his Presidency. Of course, Reagan's GOP did lose 27 seats in the House in 1982.

[NDTeve]

Don't think any of those presidents claimed to lower the seas.

[KCMax]

Tea Party hurt the GOP again last night. Mike Castle was a fairly well liked moderate Republican Congressman from Delaware and seemed to have the leg up on winning Joe Biden's old Senate seat. Instead he was upset by Sarah Palin-endorsed political novice Christine O'Donnell. Now the GOP reportedly won't fund O'Donnell's campaign and Democrat Chris Coons polls favorably to O'Donnell.

Nate Silver writes a bit about this, also saying the close NH Senate race pitting a Tea Party candidate against an establishment GOP candidate, could hurt the GOP's chances of taking the Senate.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... -takeover/

He also currently has the Dems losing 45 House seats, and control of the House, but maintaining control of the Senate with 52 seats.