Economic Perception

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shinatoo
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Re: Economic Perception

Post by shinatoo »

KCMax wrote: Well of course it does. I'm saying that pointing to one problem and saying "capitalism doesn't work" is just as silly as pointing to a problem with universal health care and saying it doesn't work. I don't see why we can't take what works in other countries while taking steps to avoid what doesn't.
Makes me think of two different Churchill Quotes:

"Capitalism is the worst economic system, except for all the
others."

and

"The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries."
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Re: Economic Perception

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MC86 wrote: Capitalism works.  Before the government got involved mandating subprime lending, that's where our problems began.  There was a reason that banks weren't loaning to these people before they had to.
That's more of a Rush Limbaugh version of events.  There were a lot of factors, including some stupid government policy involving Fannie and Freddie, but trying to claim they were the lynchpin of the current economic crisis is like calling out one of a dozen guys pouring gas on an already burning building as the sole culprit for the whole problem.  It's certainly perverse that government policy helped accelerate the growth of the subprime market, but Fannie/Freddie weren't the prime movers in that market nor were they the source of the bubble... 
KC Region is all part of the same animal regardless of state and county lines.
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Re: Economic Perception

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Maitre D wrote: I oppose universal care if it allows anybody to get free coverage.   I oppose that on very basic moral grounds.   It has nothing to do with whether universal care works in Britain or if it doesn't.   If you want something in this world, pay for it.   Just like 90% of the rest of us do.    Volunteer at the soup kitchen or sweep streets if you must, we can pay you for that.b
I understand the philosophical argument against it and I guess I find that much more honest than "it doesn't work in this country, that means it can never work here!"
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Re: Economic Perception

Post by mean »

I understand it, too, but the philosophical argument against universal care is pretty shaky, unless the one making it also supports victims being billed by the fire department for putting out a fire, or victims being billed by the police to investigate crimes against them.
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Re: Economic Perception

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mean wrote: I understand it, too, but the philosophical argument against universal care is pretty shaky, unless the one making it also supports victims being billed by the fire department for putting out a fire, or victims being billed by the police to investigate crimes against them.
Society certainly subsidizes the poor on a whole host of issues, but there are some key difference with health care.  I benefit from paying extra for cops, firemen, safe roads and a strong military.  But what personal benefit do I receive when John Doe gets better health care? 


That is a direct transfer of the value of my labor, to him.  That's NOT what goes on when I pay for shared services in other fields.
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Re: Economic Perception

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A healthier society is a more productive society.
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Re: Economic Perception

Post by Maitre D »

KCMax wrote: A healthier society is a more productive society.

Is that the best rebuttal you could muster?
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Re: Economic Perception

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Maitre D wrote:Society certainly subsidizes the poor on a whole host of issues, but there are some key difference with health care.  I benefit from paying extra for cops, firemen, safe roads and a strong military.   But what personal benefit do I receive when John Doe gets better health care?   


That is a direct transfer of the value of my labor, to him.   That's NOT what goes on when I pay for shared services in other fields.
Your argument is pretty weak. What personal benefit do you receive when John Doe gets the same investigative attention from police as you do? What personal benefit do you receive when firefighters put a fire out in the ghetto? You might have a net benefit from paying extra for cops, firemen, etc, but why should John Doe benefit if he doesn't pay proportionally the same as you do--and is statistically more likely to require some of those services?

Shouldn't we, just to be fair, dramatically reduce police and fire presence in lower income areas?
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Re: Economic Perception

Post by kcmetro »

Well maybe if some form of universal health care is enacted, they could set it up so overweight/smokers/alcoholics/etc (any health issues that are preventable) are excluded altogether...or given a smaller coverage than healthier people.  This would force people to shape up or face the consequences.
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Re: Economic Perception

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mean wrote: Your argument is pretty weak. What personal benefit do you receive when John Doe gets the same investigative attention from police as you do? What personal benefit do you receive when firefighters put a fire out in the ghetto? You might have a net benefit from paying extra for cops, firemen, etc, but why should John Doe benefit if he doesn't pay proportionally the same as you do--and is statistically more likely to require some of those services?

Shouldn't we, just to be fair, dramatically reduce police and fire presence in lower income areas?

John Doe doesn't get the equivalent cop or fireman protection that we do, which is essentially the way the healthcare market does (and really, should) work.  You gotta pay to play, Mean.  You eat what you kill.


We know one thing about subsidies:  people use services more if they think they are "free".  And we all know that the poor will clog up our hospitals and doctors' offices because (1) it doesn't cost them and (2) they have more free time than we do.


Intuitively, middle-class America knows this too.  Which is why they don't care to engage in this system.  They also intuitively know something else:  government is inefficient.  You have some major hurdles to overcome there.
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Re: Economic Perception

Post by MC86 »

ComandanteCero wrote: That's more of a Rush Limbaugh version of events.  There were a lot of factors, including some stupid government policy involving Fannie and Freddie, but trying to claim they were the lynchpin of the current economic crisis is like calling out one of a dozen guys pouring gas on an already burning building as the sole culprit for the whole problem.  It's certainly perverse that government policy helped accelerate the growth of the subprime market, but Fannie/Freddie weren't the prime movers in that market nor were they the source of the bubble... 
This bubble goes back to 1973 when the Community Reinvestment Act was signed into law.  That was just the beginning of government policy that has led to the mortgage meltdown.  And yes, I say the government because those subprime mortgages were bundled together with good mortgages and sold in securities.  If the free market were allowed to take effect, those subprime loans would never have been sold, thus the securities that they were packaged in would not be defaulting.  Hosts of other government regulations led to this mess.  Clinton modified the CRA to push for even further lending to people who shouldn't have been considered.  When Franklin Raines got busted for cooking the books with Fannie in 2004, what did the gov't do?  Basically slapped them on the wrist and told them to make even MORE subprime loans, increasing their risk in that portion of the mortgage market.  What's funny is Fannie/Freddie didn't have a care in the world.  They took on and bought up over 5 trillion in bad/risky loans because they knew that they were backed by taxpayer money.  Being GSE's they could afford to run a riskier portfolio because if they fell flat on their face, which they did, they would be backed by our tax money, which they were.
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Re: Economic Perception

Post by mean »

Maitre D wrote:John Doe doesn't get the equivalent cop or fireman protection that we do, which is essentially the way the healthcare market does (and really, should) work.
"We" meaning "me" (or, to be grammatically correct, "I")?
"It is not to my good friend's heresy that I impute his honesty. On the contrary, 'tis his honesty that has brought upon him the character of heretic." -- Ben Franklin
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Re: Economic Perception

Post by MC86 »

An article about regulation:
------------------------------

Once upon a time, before government began “regulating” the housing market, banks had to be very careful about lending money. If loans weren’t repaid, the losses went straight to the bank’s bottom line, and the bank failed. As a result, banks required a mortgage applicant to show he could actually afford a house, and to put 20 percent down in order to protect the bank from any future decline in the market value of the house.

But not everyone in the country could afford a house or had the money to make a down payment. This was intolerable to certain members of Congress, who began to demand that banks begin lending money to “under-served” (i. e. poor) people who could not afford to buy a home.

And so government began “regulating” the housing market in two major but disastrous ways.
First, Congress passed the now infamous Community Reinvestment Act, the purpose of which was to force banks to lend to people who did not qualify for loans. Other legislation soon followed, such as interest rate subsidies to seduce uncredit-worthy borrowers to apply for mortgages they couldn’t afford.

Apologists for this policy now claim that not all banks were subject to the act’s penalties, which is true, but the act nevertheless sent a crystal clear message to all banks: It was now official government policy to seduce people into buying homes they couldn’t afford.

Second, and even more disastrously, new “regulations” issued under the Clinton administration in 1995 opened the door to the “securitization” of home mortgages, pursuant to which banks were authorized, and even encouraged, to unload their mortgages on Wall Street firms like Bear Stearns, which in turn “diced and sliced” them into securities that were sold to unsuspecting investors around the world.

As a consequence, banks no longer cared about whether the borrower ever paid back a dime of the original loan. The banks simply collected their fees for processing the loans, after which they sold the loans to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or unloaded them on the Wall Street chop shops.

What followed was the greatest housing bubble in American history, fueled by government-issued “funny money” in the form of subprime loans.

This government-created bubble in turn created a deadly spiral. As home prices rose, the government had to print ever more funny money to enable even more uncredit-worthy borrowers to keep up their buying spree.

Homeowners got the message, and began taking on ever increasing amounts of debt in the belief that the value of their home would skyrocket forever.

Thus the cause of the current crisis has not been too little regulation, but too much. Had the government not attempted to “regulate” the housing market, the financial crisis would certainly never have occurred.
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Re: Economic Perception

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And one more:

-------------------------------------------

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20081022/cm_csm/yhorwitz

Canton, N.Y. – Many observers, including most politicians, have blamed the ongoing financial crisis on the "free-market greed" supposedly unleashed by the "reckless deregulation" of the financial system. Such arguments are rhetorically powerful, but they don't stand up to scrutiny.

If they go unchallenged, however, they could hasten a "solution" that's worse than the problem. That's why it's so important to examine the record. What it shows is that government regulations and other interventions – not greed – are the major cause of our current problems.

Greed, or at least self-interest, is always present to some degree in the economy. Why has greed suddenly produced so much harm, and why only in one sector of the economy?

Firms are profit seekers, but they will seek it where the institutional incentives signal profit is available. In a free market, firms profit by satisfying their customers, investing wisely, and making prudent loans. Regulations, policies, and political rhetoric can change those incentives.

When the law either poorly defines the rules of the game or tries to override them through regulation, the invisible hand that makes self-interested behavior mutually beneficial may become more of a fist.

In such cases, "greed" can lead to problems, not caused by greed but by the institutional context channeling self-interest in socially unproductive ways.

To call the housing and credit crisis a failure of the free market or the product of unregulated greed is to overlook the myriad government regulations, policies, and political pronouncements that have both reduced the freedom of this market and led self-interested actors to produce disastrous consequences, often unintentionally.

The two biggest players in the mortgage market are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Until they were nationalized recently, they were "government sponsored enterprises" (GSEs). That meant they enjoyed all the profit potential of a private business, but carried none of the risk. How would you run your business differently if you knew the government would bail you out or if Congress bullied you into adopting certain business strategies? Would you be acting greedily – or just rationally?

Throughout the 1990s, Washington encouraged these GSEs to expand home-ownership among lower-income, and thus more risky, borrowers. In 2004 and 2005, following the accounting scandals at Freddie, both GSEs paid penance to Congress by agreeing to expand their direct lending to low-income, higher-risk customers. Both acquired more subprime and Alt-A loans, making it profitable for banks to originate them, confident that the US taxpayers ultimately stood behind Freddie and Fannie. From 2003 to 2006, the percentage of loans the GSEs made in those riskier categories grew from 8 percent to about 20 percent in 2006. This meddling helped drive up housing prices, leading other players to pile fancy new instruments on top of those mortgages, leading to a speculative bubble that was, at root, caused by the actions of two government-sponsored entities unleashed from the normal profit-and-loss checks of the free market.

Fueling this speculative fire was the Federal Reserve, also a government-sponsored organization. The Fed moved interest rates to extraordinarily low levels beginning in 2001. The additional credit it provided artificially lowered the cost of mortgages and dramatically accelerated the housing boom begun in the 1990s.

Did people suddenly get greedy in their pursuit of McMansions, second homes, and flipping homes for easy profit? Yes, but only because abnormally low interest rates made it foolish not to be. This was hardly a failure of free markets or greed. It was the predictable consequence of government distorting the interest rate.

The only relevant piece of deregulation of the past 15 years is the 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which repealed the Depression-era separation of investment and commercial banking. However, this has been a blessing rather than a curse, as it has enabled commercial banks to buy up failing investment banks and permitted other failing investment banks to save themselves by becoming commercial banks. Without that deregulation, today's crisis would have been even more devastating.

Good intentions are not enough in designing public policy. Regulations designed with the best of intentions are likely to lead to more crises if they distort incentives and thereby cause individual "greed" to undermine economic growth and harm millions. History is full of examples of politicians adopting short-run solutions without seeing the harmful long-run consequences.

Today, the calls to "do something" are loud. Yet amid the cacophony, there are a few voices urging not more, but less; not faster, but slower; not short term, but long term; not intent, but outcomes. Those are the voices we should heed, because if we had listened to them 15 or 20 years ago, we might not be where we are today.

• Steven Horwitz is a professor of economics at St. Lawrence University.
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Re: Economic Perception

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MC86 wrote: This bubble goes back to 1973 when the Community Reinvestment Act was signed into law.  That was just the beginning of government policy that has led to the mortgage meltdown.  And yes, I say the government because those subprime mortgages were bundled together with good mortgages and sold in securities.  If the free market were allowed to take effect, those subprime loans would never have been sold, thus the securities that they were packaged in would not be defaulting.  Hosts of other government regulations led to this mess.  Clinton modified the CRA to push for even further lending to people who shouldn't have been considered.  When Franklin Raines got busted for cooking the books with Fannie in 2004, what did the gov't do?  Basically slapped them on the wrist and told them to make even MORE subprime loans, increasing their risk in that portion of the mortgage market.  What's funny is Fannie/Freddie didn't have a care in the world.  They took on and bought up over 5 trillion in bad/risky loans because they knew that they were backed by taxpayer money.  Being GSE's they could afford to run a riskier portfolio because if they fell flat on their face, which they did, they would be backed by our tax money, which they were.
i was going to post a long response pointing out all the inaccuracies and misunderstandings in your post (especially regarding the CRA).  But i'll keep it short and simple:

The majority of subprime mortgages currently defaulting were granted by unregulated entities with no CRA/HUD oversight or requirements.  

HUD's performance relating to Fannie/Freddie and the subprime market was grossly negligent and imbecilic.  However, at best they only helped fuel a fire that was already raging and being fed by multitudes of unregulated private forces.
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Re: Economic Perception

Post by ThaMexican »

The majority of subprime mortgages currently defaulting were granted by unregulated entities with no CRA/HUD oversight or requirements.
Unregulated or not would those entities been able to make the loans if the Community Reinvestment Act had never happened?
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Re: Economic Perception

Post by ComandanteCero »

sure?  not seeing the connection.  Subprime lending is its own industry born from folks realizing there was demand for loans amongst folks with "imperfect credit".  To minimize the risk of lending to this demographic they usually bump up the rates and fees and penalties.  In other words, it's a perfectly valid market activity that can yield a profit if done well.  There are a whole range of actors in that market segment, from companies that are predatory to companies that do sell "legit" product to folks who have damaged credit histories but can afford to make the payments.

There's some weird conservative meme that subprime lending is a distortion of the market, that somehow the government must be involved for something like that to exist.  I can assure you it exists, and the government didn't have to create it.  Back in the old days it was known as "usury"  :P
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Re: Economic Perception

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NDTeve wrote: It goes both ways. Remember that.
Yes, your are right.  When you are looking at things with the express purpose of finding ways for them to work, you just may find those ways.
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Re: Economic Perception

Post by grovester »

the non-real estate equivalent would be the payday loan industry.  high risk but profitable.
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Re: Economic Perception

Post by KCFutbol »

grovester wrote: the non-real estate equivalent would be the payday loan industry.  high risk but profitable.
Or the "Buy Here/Pay Here" used car industry.

A friend of mine owned one of those a number of years ago. He said that after the down payment and a few monthly payments he was in the black. Miss a payment or two and he'd repo it and sell it to another poor soul and the cycle would start again.
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