Is America's suburban dream collapsing into a nightmare?

[LenexatoKCMO]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/06/16/subu ... index.html

Is America's suburban dream collapsing into a nightmare?
By Lara Farrar
For CNN


. . .

For Yandell, his wife and many other residents trying to stick it out, the white picket fence of an American dream has faded into a seemingly hopeless suburban nightmare. "The forecast is gloomy," he told CNN.

While the foreclosure epidemic has left communities across the United States overrun with unoccupied houses and overgrown grass, underneath the chaos another trend is quietly emerging that, over the next several decades, could change the face of suburban American life as we know it.

This trend, according to Christopher Leinberger, an urban planning professor at the University of Michigan and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, stems not only from changing demographics but also from a major shift in the way an increasing number of Americans -- especially younger generations -- want to live and work.


. . .

Yet Nelson also estimates that in 2025 there will be a surplus of 22 million large-lot homes that will not be left vacant in a suburban wasteland but instead occupied by lower classes who have been driven out of their once affordable inner-city apartments and houses.

The so-called McMansion, he said, will become the new multi-family home for the poor.

"What is going to happen is lower and lower-middle income families squeezed out of downtown and glamorous suburban locations are going to be pushed economically into these McMansions at the suburban fringe," said Nelson. "There will probably be ten people living in one house."

[kcmetro]

Bring it on! 

[ignatius]

"There will probably be ten people living in one house."

I could see in 25-50 years families from 3rd world countries take over the McMansions.  They are accustomed to such living conditions anyway.

But the only way I see low income people leaving inner cities is if there is legislation in place that somewhat pushes them out, such as in Canada.  In Toronto, they put their low income housing outside the city, not the inner city.

[mean]

There already is that legislation, it's called property tax.

[lock+load]

But the only way I see low income people leaving inner cities is if there is legislation in place that somewhat pushes them out, such as in Canada.  In Toronto, they put their low income housing outside the city, not the inner city.

Exactly.  The east side of KC is not going to gentrify in our life times without government intervention.  Maybe a bit here and there, but too much of it is too far gone and the crime is to high.

[drumatix]

"There will probably be ten people living in one house."

ONLY ten people? Surely they can do better than that... we can fit ten people per house in the 2000 square foot homes in the Westside!

[LenexatoKCMO]

Exactly.  The east side of KC is not going to gentrify in our life times without government intervention.  Maybe a bit here and there, but too much of it is too far gone and the crime is to high.

I don't know that KC is all that great an example for this kind of change - as has been discussed on here before, KC has a relatively microscopic stock of urban apartments, condos, row homes, townhouses, etc.  If KC is going to ever offer the kinds of housing options contemplated here, it is going to have to be built.  Its not like we have great big swaths of dense row homes or aparments just waiting for the poor people to move out and so they can be gentrified.  Even our ghettos are 99.9% single family.  If dense, walkable options are going to become a serious presence in this town, its going to have to be built.  

[mean]

Exactly. There aren't many parts of KC that are currently ghettofied which are designed to offer a real urban experience. Those that are, are turning around a lot faster.

[ignatius]

If River/Crown/Plaza were continuously built up with hirises over 25 years with decent schools, the population could potentially hit 500K just in RCP between Paseo/Stateline, probably much more, and with a good stock of single family homes too.  But this could only happen only if city living is "in" and suburban living is out from the perspective of families.

As far as 'pushing out' low income people, KCMO so far is keeping it a little too integrated by allowing Section 8 on Armour where others are trying to make major investments.  It's like they are telling people not to invest there.

[GRID]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/06/16/subu ... index.html

Is America's suburban dream collapsing into a nightmare?
By Lara Farrar
For CNN


. . .

For Yandell, his wife and many other residents trying to stick it out, the white picket fence of an American dream has faded into a seemingly hopeless suburban nightmare. "The forecast is gloomy," he told CNN.

While the foreclosure epidemic has left communities across the United States overrun with unoccupied houses and overgrown grass, underneath the chaos another trend is quietly emerging that, over the next several decades, could change the face of suburban American life as we know it.

This trend, according to Christopher Leinberger, an urban planning professor at the University of Michigan and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, stems not only from changing demographics but also from a major shift in the way an increasing number of Americans -- especially younger generations -- want to live and work.


. . .

Yet Nelson also estimates that in 2025 there will be a surplus of 22 million large-lot homes that will not be left vacant in a suburban wasteland but instead occupied by lower classes who have been driven out of their once affordable inner-city apartments and houses.

The so-called McMansion, he said, will become the new multi-family home for the poor.

"What is going to happen is lower and lower-middle income families squeezed out of downtown and glamorous suburban locations are going to be pushed economically into these McMansions at the suburban fringe," said Nelson. "There will probably be ten people living in one house."

ignatius, I would LOVE to move back to KCMO's urban core with my family (kids).  But there are just two few options in this town for that and all of them require a massive income to support an urban home and private schools.

There is a great example of this in North America.  Vancouver, BC.

I can only dream of the day that american cities follow suit but there are signs of it starting to happen.

KC would be the last town in the country to jump on this bandwagon though...

I never thought I would see the day that Dallas and Atlanta are doing what they are doing today as tens of thousands are moving into the urban cores of those sprawling megaplexes.  But it's happening.

KC still doesn't get it.  Not even close.

[phxcat]

Out here (really out in Surprise, Buckeye, places like that), lower income people are moving out of the city into the McMansions not because they are being forced out, but as a result of the bubble and (I would assume) a search for a better life.  So many houses were built and not sold that the speculators that got stuck with them have started renting, and there are a lot of neighborhoods out there that are full of big, nice houses that are rentals or owned by a pool of families.

[aknowledgeableperson]

If River/Crown/Plaza were continuously built up with hirises over 25 years with decent schools, the population could potentially hit 500K just in RCP between Paseo/Stateline, probably much more, and with a good stock of single family homes too.  But this could only happen only if city living is "in" and suburban living is out from the perspective of families.

500K???????????????????????????????????????????????????????

You can forget those hirises if there is going to be any amount of sq ft like people are buying today in KC.  I saw one unit with 2,000 sq ft, 2br, 2ba.  Come on.  That is bigger than most of the urban single family homes found within the old city limits of KCMO.  If you want that kind of 500K density than you better plan on 400 sq ft one br units and no more than 1,000 sq ft for a family.

[ignatius]

Well it would have to be a Vancouverization of KC to happen.  Vancouver has over 80k living downtown in <1.2 sq miles.  RCP is about 12 sq miles, so that comes to about 800K people if the same density.  Factor in a bunch of pre-existing single family homes and it reduces to 500K.

I'm not saying this is realistic, but if somehow surburbs were out and city is in (as in Vancouver)...

BTW, nearly half of KC metro households do not have a child.  If 1/3 moved to 'the city', no families would be required to make it happen.

[aknowledgeableperson]

At least locally the job base in the KC area is so spread out.  Do you realize how many people live within a 10 minute drive of College Blvd?  From my home in SKC it is quicker for me to get to College and Metcalf than to the Plaza or downtown.

For you dream to happen RCP would have to generate way, way more jobs than it has now.  And that will be one secret to achieving your dream.  The city of Vancouver's web site says it has 62,200 jobs in the Port of Vancouver and has over 60% of the regions office space (two items KCMO nor RCP have).  And that is just with 30% of the area's population (just under 600K of 2+M).  But the city appears to be growing more slowing than its metro area since in 1981 it had over 35% of the area's population.  OH, AND BY THE WAY ACCORDING TO THE WEB SITE OF THE CITY ITS 2006 CENSUS HAD A DOWNTOWN POPULATION OF 43,417.  Now you might be confusing its downtown with its Central Area which includes the Downtown Peninsula (11 neighborhoods) and an area south of the penisula.  The penisula has a population of almost 88,000 and the whole Central Area totals 101,000.  This whole area is 900 hectares.

On the other hand the city's website does have a conflict.  In one spreadsheet (Local Area Population) it lists downtown population of the 43,417 but when you get to the Central Area Section it says that the Central Area is downtown and the population is 87,973.

Since the Central Area has 900 hectares and approx. 260 hectares equals 1 sq mile then the whole Central Area is approx. 3.46 sq miles. 

[LenexatoKCMO]

I was really hoping one of our resident suburb apologists would chime in and tell us all how terribly wrong the article is and how snout houses and SUVs will rule unrivaled till the end of time.  Thanks AKP. 

[dangerboy]

Johnson County might actually be relatively OK since it has so many employers in the county.  It is actually a net importer of commuters now.  Although, there will be some chaos at first when the people commuting to the urban core switch to jobs in the county's office parks, and vice versa.

Cass County and Eastern Jackson County are going to be hit hardest because they don't have the big employment centers that the urban core and Johnson County have.  Those people have some of the longest commutes in the region, and a lot fewer job options close to home.  People who commute from Grain Valley to Olathe or KCI will have move closer to work or try to get a job Downtown and fight for space on the commuter buses.

[chrizow]

I never thought I would see the day that Dallas and Atlanta are doing what they are doing today as tens of thousands are moving into the urban cores of those sprawling megaplexes.  But it's happening.

if KC was a fast-growing sunbelt metro attracting tens of thousands of new people to the area each year for the last 20 years, i suspect the Plaza area would be Buckhead by now.

[Angel]

I'm no suburb apologist  , but all those McMansions in Joco will likely be fine.  The Federal Reserve put out an interesting study (and there are many out there, so this isn't the end all and be all to foreclosure studies) showing that out of the entire metro area, Joco has the lowest foreclosure rate (less than .5% of all mortages there ended in foreclosure in 2007).  I'm sure someone's already posted here somewhere.

http://www.marc.org/gif/FRB_ForeclosurePres.pdf

[aknowledgeableperson]

I was really hoping one of our resident suburb apologists would chime in and tell us all how terribly wrong the article is and how snout houses and SUVs will rule unrivaled till the end of time.  Thanks AKP.   :D

I think what you missed was that to have the population density you desire you got to have the jobs.  And right now KCMO cannot say that it dominates the local job market, especially in the RCP area.

And another point I find interesting is that right now people on this board complain about the housing costs downtown.  Look at the housing costs in Vancouver.  Way higher and I would imagine that the living spaces are not much more than a crackerbox.

Besides, where did I say that SUV's will rule?

[ignatius]

I think what you missed was that to have the population density you desire you got to have the jobs.  And right now KCMO cannot say that it dominates the local job market, especially in the RCP area.

Think again.  KCMO  does dominate metro jobs, about 1/3 of the metro, 3x more than the next metro city.  Downtown alone has 10% of the metro workforce, more than any one metro city.

http://forum.kcrag.com/index.php?topic=14421.0

If the RCP population were to increase 3-4x in 25 years (hypothetically speaking if the article were to become reality), obviously the jobs would too.