Politics

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mean
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Re: Politics

Postby mean » Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:20 pm

None of that matters, cuck. Trump will win and keep winning, and if you see reports that he didn't win it's because they're lying to try and keep him down. Also known as FAKE NEWS! Dems can't win anything because dems winning is FAKE NEWS just like Hillary winning, and if you can't see the fakery then perhaps you can see my arsenal of weapons?

This may be how America ends. We're in a battle over what constitutes reality, and I am not sure actual reality can win.

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Re: Politics

Postby aknowledgeableperson » Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:02 am

Trump wins because his opposition is so disorganized it's a joke. If the Tea Party liberals can get their act together that would be a start. Throw in a dew more administration missteps and some Freedom Caucus rebellion over the lack of repeal of Obamacare and Trump support starts taking some hits. And Pence can't be happy that he was left out of the loop on Flynn's lie for 11 days after the White House was informed.
And let's see how the Team Trump's contacts with the Russians during and after the campaign play out. Who knows, may be a Watergate type of incident.

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Re: Politics

Postby aknowledgeableperson » Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:30 am

https://www.facebook.com/attn/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED&fref=nf

A take on gerrymandering by Arnold, and not Palmer.

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Re: Politics

Postby phuqueue » Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:17 pm

This bodes well https://www.wsj.com/articles/spies-keep ... 1487209351

aknowledgeableperson wrote:Is it too early to talk about the 2018 election cycle?
Dems take over the Senate?
Dems take over the House?
Both?
State offices start the swing back to the Dems?
What happens to Obamacare?
What other cabinet officer is forced to resign? Or resigns because of Trump?

Things will probably only get worse in 2018. The Dems are defending way more vulnerable Senate seats than the GOP, so even with a strong showing retaking the Senate is a steep uphill battle. And while the courts are starting to strike down some gerrymandering schemes, the best case scenario to get the House back is probably still not until after the 2020 census (for the same reason, retaking state legislatures is a pipe dream, although if the Dems are energized enough to actually turn out for a midterm election for once then maybe other offices in some states might be in play).

Obamacare's future is a mystery. It sounds like the GOP has come to realize that it's already, arguably, a third rail, and cumulatively they've promised way more than they can deliver (cheaper, better, will cover more people), although obviously not everyone is promising the same thing (Paul Ryan is banking on people being too dumb to realize "access" just means you will be legally permitted to buy health insurance if you can afford it -- kinda like the "access" we already enjoy to Lamborghinis and sprawling mansions), so the wind seems to have largely come out of the sails of the "repeal and replace" movement. They have no idea what to replace it with and realize they'd be committing electoral suicide to just repeal. That being said, the health insurance industry is in turmoil over the uncertainty of what's going to happen. Humana already just announced that they're pulling out of the individual market (although they didn't write much business anyway) and it's possible other insurers will follow suit, forcing a chaotic end to the system regardless of what Republicans legislate. If that happens, the GOP will try (in Humana's case, already is trying) to spin it as Obamacare collapsing under its own weight, but I'm cautiously optimistic that a) voters won't let them off that easy and b) the Republicans know it. Voters by and large didn't let the GOP get away with the debt ceiling shenanigans (or maybe they did, considering the position the GOP now finds itself in, but opinion polls at the time showed that voters overwhelmingly blamed Republicans, not Obama, for that drama), and that wasn't nearly as easy for Dems to message as "you lost your health insurance because the Republicans got rid of it just like they said they would" would be. On the defensive, the GOP would find itself in the unenviable position that has traditionally belonged to the Dems -- fighting the easy and intuitive message with a rambling explanation of "what really happened" (and in this particular case the explanation will be largely bullshit anyway). But Trump just signed some rules to try to stabilize the markets, so we'll see. At this point in time, I'd bet against an orderly "repeal and replace," but that doesn't mean that it's here to stay either.

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Re: Politics

Postby aknowledgeableperson » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:26 am

Concerning the Flynn affair and his contacts with the Russians Trump and company was trying to divert the attention away from the fact of what was discussed to get his followers to focus on the leaks were illegal. But now the info is coming from other sources.
http://www.newsweek.com/allies-intercep ... ons-557283
"As part of intelligence operations being conducted against the United States for the last seven months, at least one Western European ally intercepted a series of communications before the inauguration between advisers associated with President Donald Trump and Russian government officials, according to people with direct knowledge of the situation.
The sources said the interceptions include at least one contact between former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and a Russian official based in the United States. It could not be confirmed whether this involved the telephone call with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak that has led to Flynn’s resignation, or additional communications. The sources said the intercepted communications are not just limited to telephone calls: The foreign agency is also gathering electronic and human source information on Trump’s overseas business partners, at least some of whom the intelligence services now consider to be agents of their respective governments. These operations are being conducted out of concerns that Russia is seeking to manipulate its relationships with Trump administration officials as part of a long-term plan to destabilize the NATO alliance.
Moreover, a Baltic nation is gathering intelligence on officials in the Trump White House and executives with the president’s company, the Trump Organization, out of concern that an American policy shift toward Russia could endanger its sovereignty, according to a third person with direct ties to that nation’s government.
...
The Western European intelligence operations began in August, after the British government obtained information that people acting on behalf of Russia were in contact with members of the Trump campaign. Those details from the British were widely shared among the NATO allies in Europe. The Baltic nation has been gathering intelligence for at least that long, and has conducted surveillance of executives from the Trump Organization who were traveling in Europe.
These operations reflect a serious breakdown in the long-standing faith in the direction of American policy by some of the country’s most important allies. Worse, the United States is now in a situation that may be unprecedented—where European governments know more about what is going on in the executive branch than any elected American official. To date, the Republican-controlled Congress has declined to conduct hearings to investigate the links between Trump’s overseas business partners and foreign governments, or the activities between Russia and officials in the Trump campaign and administration—the very areas being examined by the intelligence services of at least two American allies."

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Re: Politics

Postby aknowledgeableperson » Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:58 pm

Here is an interesting article about the state of politics.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/electio ... n_20170314
"Big Data revolutionized the way American politicians win elections. In the process, it broke American politics.
Polarization is no longer just polluting the system — it's paralyzing it. The deepening divide between the right and the left has largely hollowed out the center of American politics, from the politicians who once occupied the large "middle" to the voters who once gravitated to them.
Here's our theory: The reason our lawmakers aren't responding to the center of the electorate is because they've concluded (with ample electoral evidence) that they don't need centrist or swing voters to win. "

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grovester
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Re: Politics

Postby grovester » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:40 pm

Why appeal to a conscientious middle voter when you can go after a voter who will likely never change their mind about anything.

I think these kind of theories hold true until suddenly they don't. Kind of how Trump got elected.

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Re: Politics

Postby phuqueue » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:33 pm

I think "the middle" remains alive and well in American politics and those lamenting its supposed decline are just looking in the wrong place. When people talk about the middle, I think they're picturing those politicians who once operated in the blurry neutral zone where one party's "moderates" used to gradually shade into the other's, where you had guys like Joe Lieberman or Arlen Specter who identified with one party but frankly could have been a member of either one (and in Specter's case, did in fact switch back and forth). We don't have too many of those guys left anymore, but it's not because of a "deepening divide between the right and the left," it's because of a deepening divide between Republicans and the middle.

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Re: Politics

Postby grovester » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:54 pm

I agree, but they have to be "activated" and are prone to disappear in any given election. Hoping for a sighting in 2018.

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Re: Politics

Postby phuqueue » Tue May 16, 2017 6:23 pm

Everything is fine

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Re: Politics

Postby aknowledgeableperson » Wed May 17, 2017 1:43 am

How long will it take for the GOP members of Congress to turn on Trump?

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Re: Politics

Postby phuqueue » Wed May 17, 2017 10:48 am

Watergate was before my time, but something you never hear people talk about anymore is that most Republicans apparently stuck by Nixon well into the scandal and a majority of Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee voted against every count of impeachment. So I wouldn't count on Republicans turning on Trump en masse any time soon. But if even a few of the ones that have always expressed skepticism, like McCain or Sasse, stop talking and actually do something, the wheels might begin to turn. Chaffetz has demanded all records (including the vaunted "tapes," if they exist) of Trump/Comey conversations, so that's something. On the other hand, Burr, leading the supposedly grown-up investigation in the Senate, absurdly claims that the burden of producing Comey's memos falls on the New York Times and not on, you know, himself, the guy whose job it is to investigate this and which comes with handy subpoena powers. So as this continues to go from bad to worse I'm still not holding my breath.

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Re: Politics

Postby aknowledgeableperson » Wed May 17, 2017 11:48 am

Watergate took two years for Nixon to resign. And it took a damaging tape release to take the GOP members to back impeachment efforts. My take, unless a smoking gun materializes beforehand, is the GOP stays with Trump until he becomes an election liability next year. That is if he does become one. Trump's base is still with him and the GOP needs that base. In the meantime much of the GOP's agenda is on the backburner.

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Re: Politics

Postby phuqueue » Wed May 17, 2017 12:30 pm

Although a large number of self-identified Republicans still support him, recent polls suggest his base (that is, blue collar white men) might be starting to peel away (and anecdotally I've talked to some one time supporters who no longer like him, call him an idiot, etc). But Trump's base doesn't precisely align with the traditional Republican base, which does give them some breathing room (as the House hardliners discovered and then exploited with health care). Rather than "turn" on him in a way that entails removal from office (via impeachment, 25th Amendment, or forced resignation), I suspect we'll see them retreat toward the strategy they were expected to pursue all along: ignore him, pass what they want, and send it to him to sign. This plan was disrupted early on by his erratic and often contradictory policy pronouncements, but as it's become clear that he neither knows nor cares what's in a bill as long as he can sign it and rack up a win, they should get back on track. The surprising fault lines within their own party, even ignoring Trump, might continue to hamstring some of their efforts though, eg on health care and maybe even taxes, and so far the legislative filibuster is supposedly safe. I don't think the GOP will even turn on him next year, although individual GOP politicians running in swing districts will speak out against him (probably without any substantive action) and seek to distance themselves from him.

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Re: Politics

Postby earthling » Wed May 17, 2017 5:28 pm

With Trump's consolidated approval/disapproval gap at a significant high, the risk of GOP Congress to push for impeachment may be low. If Trump's rating stays this strongly disapproved long term, impeachment might be something Congress considers more seriously if they have enough to go on. And it wont take much effort for Trump to royally screw something else up in next 6 months.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -6179.html

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Re: Politics

Postby FangKC » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:49 am

The Death of Kansas's Conservative Experiment

Republicans in the state legislature on Tuesday voted to reverse Governor Sam Brownback’s signature tax cuts, dealing a blow to the kind of fiscal policy the Trump administration wants to enact nationally.


https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/06/kansass-conservative-tax-experiment-is-dead/529551/

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Re: Politics

Postby Highlander » Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:04 pm

phuqueue wrote: This plan was disrupted early on by his erratic and often contradictory policy pronouncements, but as it's become clear that he neither knows nor cares what's in a bill as long as he can sign it and rack up a win, they should get back on track.


Trump has no political ideology. It appears to be somewhat whimsical and whatever suits him at any given time but it's at leased couched in terms that it least pays lip service to the parties ultra conservative faction. At best his ideology boils down to "if I said it it's right, if Obama enacted it, it must be undone".

mean
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Re: Politics

Postby mean » Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:38 pm

"Unless anything I say is the same thing Obama said, in which case I'm right and Obama never said it."

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Re: Politics

Postby phuqueue » Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:16 pm

Highlander wrote:
phuqueue wrote: This plan was disrupted early on by his erratic and often contradictory policy pronouncements, but as it's become clear that he neither knows nor cares what's in a bill as long as he can sign it and rack up a win, they should get back on track.


Trump has no political ideology. It appears to be somewhat whimsical and whatever suits him at any given time but it's at leased couched in terms that it least pays lip service to the parties ultra conservative faction. At best his ideology boils down to "if I said it it's right, if Obama enacted it, it must be undone".

The same could be said about essentially every Congressional Republican over the past eight years.

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Re: Politics

Postby mean » Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:26 pm

Well, a fair few of their constituents thought Obama was a muslim installed by Saudis who wanted to destroy America. Now, a fair few democratic constituents think Trump is a nazi installed by Russians who wants to destroy America. My optimistic side likes to think we'll get through this, but the pessimistic part of me thinks that when any ideology becomes a team sport, where you root for your team no matter what they do and vilify / dehumanize the other team no matter what they do, it's over. Human nature / confirmation bias is too strong and the sides drift further and further apart until they think that violence against the other is the only answer. That's one recipe for genocide.


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