2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by AllThingsKC » Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:28 am

grovester wrote:By lottery.
No. By leprechauns....but not Atheist leprechauns.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by bobbyhawks » Tue Mar 12, 2013 1:08 pm

TheBigChuckbowski wrote:
bobbyhawks wrote:It is pretty amazing what KSU was able to accomplish in tying for the championship considering that they were fourth in the Kenpom.com rankings. They were also the 29th luckiest team in the nation compared to OSU's 243rd and ISU's 277th (KU was 124th). Perhaps they just have something going for them this year. It will be interesting to follow these numbers into the big dance. In the meantime, it should be quite an entertaining last three days of Big 12 play.
How is luckiest team decided?
I don't know the exact calculation because some of Kenpom's formulas are proprietary, but it is based on your efficiency and what record that efficiency would generally earn vs. what that efficiency actually earned record-wise. It is not surprising that the second "luckiest" team in the Big 12 (shockingly TCU was #1 - probably due to the KU win) is both tied for champion and the fourth third best team by efficiency. The close games went KSU's way and/or they got some low efficiency games from opponents without defensive efficiency driving said efficiency. Contrarily, a team like Iowa St., who is one position away from KSU in efficiency, has 10 losses vs. KSU's 6. One could surmise from the rankings that they would simulate as 8 loss teams by efficiency alone. If basketball were just the stats, then things would be boring, so I just think they are interesting to consider, but it is still fun watching a team defy the odds or to see unpredictable behavior due to stats and strategies that are currently not measurable or considered.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by chaglang » Tue Mar 12, 2013 1:18 pm

It sounds a lot like it's based on a deviation from a team's Pythagorean Expectation.

Basketball Pythagorean Expectation

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by bobbyhawks » Tue Mar 12, 2013 1:26 pm

chaglang wrote:It sounds a lot like it's based on a deviation from a team's Pythagorean Expectation.

Basketball Pythagorean Expectation
Most likely. Here is the Kenpom.com explanation:
Luck - A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by KCMax » Tue Mar 12, 2013 2:17 pm

Would Iowa State be among the unluckiest?

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by TheBigChuckbowski » Tue Mar 12, 2013 2:45 pm

bobbyhawks wrote:
chaglang wrote:It sounds a lot like it's based on a deviation from a team's Pythagorean Expectation.

Basketball Pythagorean Expectation
Most likely. Here is the Kenpom.com explanation:
Luck - A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).
I wouldn't really call that luck, though.

So, I'm assuming KU was predicted to beat Iowa State both times which means they didn't get lucky in either game, right? I mean, I see the point in measuring something like that but it shouldn't be named "luck" because that's not really what it is. It's just playing better than the stats which could mean a whole number of things.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by chaglang » Tue Mar 12, 2013 3:18 pm

“Luck” refers more to the season to season unpredictability of whether a team will finish above or below it’s Pythag number. There’s no rhyme or reason to it. The term isn’t a good one, I agree, because understates other factors that might have gone into the game results. The naming is controversial in baseball stathead circles. Overperformance and underperformance would be better, but those aren’t as catchy.

Roughly speaking the formula is based on total points scored and total points allowed in a season, and then (via the multiplier) compared to a composite of how past teams with those stats have fared. It’s a season-long stat, so there are no predictions of individual games.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by bobbyhawks » Wed Mar 13, 2013 9:49 am

But the luck measure is only predictive moving forward. One should not look at the rankings and think that KSU was necessarily considered "lucky" prior to the Big 12 season. They were only considered "lucky" because their actual performance by efficiency would normally not net such a high win total. So, the measure has nothing to do with expectations back in time. It has to do with expectations looking back on if the same team replayed the same season with the same efficiency in each game again.

The measure of luck would never take into account bad officiating like at the end of the KU/ISU game, but the theory is that those things even out over time. Every team gets a bad call that goes their way late in a game. Some of those teams are already down or up 20, but the bad calls sometimes coincide with a crucial moment in a big game. KU played in 6 games this season that finished within 6 points. They were 4-2 in those games. Iowa State had 6 and was 3-3 in those games. KSU had 10 and was 6-4. If you look at the efficiency numbers, they say that KU was nearest the expected outcomes, while KSU won games where the numbers did not expect them to win, and ISU lost games where the efficiency numbers did not expect them to lose.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by KCMax » Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:01 am

Pitch Big 12 Tournament Guide

I didn't know Nica's was an Oklahoma State hanguot.

So who's planning on going?

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by KCMax » Thu Mar 14, 2013 8:47 am

"Screw you guys, we came here to kick ass in football!"

http://wvmetronews.com/luck-its-a-footb ... Vs.twitter

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by chaglang » Thu Mar 14, 2013 11:20 am

KCMax wrote:"Screw you guys, we came here to kick ass in football!"

http://wvmetronews.com/luck-its-a-footb ... Vs.twitter
Then you'd think they'd be better at it.

KSU fans should especially appreciate this. Not only did WVU pilfer their coach in a sport they apparently don't value, KSU beat them twice in that sport and shallacked them in the sport they DO care about.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by aknowledgeableperson » Fri Mar 15, 2013 11:32 pm

Poor MU.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by shinatoo » Sat Mar 16, 2013 11:34 am

@GabeDeArmond Stat of the year: MU has held a lead away from home with less than 30 seconds to go 12 times this year. They are 5-7.
Quocunque Jeceris Stabit

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by KCMax » Sun Mar 17, 2013 10:07 pm

Does Haith deserve any of the credit for Miami this year? Aren't they pretty senior laden?

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by shaffe » Sun Mar 17, 2013 11:20 pm

KCMax wrote:Does Haith deserve any of the credit for Miami this year? Aren't they pretty senior laden?
Very little IMO.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by KCMax » Mon Mar 18, 2013 1:43 pm

K-State to play Gonzaga next December in Wichita.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by chingon » Sun Mar 24, 2013 7:50 pm

Highlander wrote:
Ha. We aren't serving crow until it's in season - should be available after the first week of the tourney.

KU probably won't be a 1 seed after yestarday and Gonzaga almost surely will but lets see who survives the first week.
Better get it quick. After the nation-wide, season-long Gonzaga blowjob, there might not be left overs. In fact, you can have my serving, because I ordered too much.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by bobbyhawks » Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:23 am

Michigan will be the most efficient offense KU has faced (next to Iowa St. at #6). Where KU had a full +1 inch advantage vs. UNC in size, they will have a +1.9 inch advantage vs. Michigan in effective height (average height per player minutes). Iowa State was even smaller, giving KU a +2.9 inch advantage, and they were able to stretch out our defense. Mich has nobody on their team above 6-6 with a 3pt attempt, so Withey should be able to stay inside with McGary or Morgan. Michigan will no doubt try to run screens that force us to switch Withey onto a 3pt shooter.

KU is aided by the fact that Michigan does not force turnovers well at all, but that probably won't stop KU from making Michigan look much better than they are in that department. Michigan really does not send people to the line either (#1), though most teams in the Big 10 are good in that category. Withey is the better post defender, but McGary is the better rebounder, so that will be a great battle to watch. Since Mich doesn't turn people over and doesn't commit many fouls, I'm hoping that will open McLemore up to use his athleticism.

The teams Mich struggled against were all very good defensively with Wisconsin being the only one that did not have a size advantage. Mich was 4-6 vs. top 20 efficiency defenses, with 3 of their 4 wins coming at home (4th was neutral site win over #17 defense Pitt in Nov.). We'll see on Friday if KU has declined too much to hang with the big boys or if they can catch a second wind. The more I look into the matchup, the more I like KU's chances to advance, though to be honest I would have probably found the positive numbers regardless.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by KCMax » Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:56 am

bobbyhawks wrote:Michigan will be the most efficient offense KU has faced (next to Iowa St. at #6). Where KU had a full +1 inch advantage vs. UNC in size, they will have a +1.9 inch advantage vs. Michigan in effective height (average height per player minutes). Iowa State was even smaller, giving KU a +2.9 inch advantage, and they were able to stretch out our defense. Mich has nobody on their team above 6-6 with a 3pt attempt, so Withey should be able to stay inside with McGary or Morgan. Michigan will no doubt try to run screens that force us to switch Withey onto a 3pt shooter.

KU is aided by the fact that Michigan does not force turnovers well at all, but that probably won't stop KU from making Michigan look much better than they are in that department. Michigan really does not send people to the line either (#1), though most teams in the Big 10 are good in that category. Withey is the better post defender, but McGary is the better rebounder, so that will be a great battle to watch. Since Mich doesn't turn people over and doesn't commit many fouls, I'm hoping that will open McLemore up to use his athleticism.

The teams Mich struggled against were all very good defensively with Wisconsin being the only one that did not have a size advantage. Mich was 4-6 vs. top 20 efficiency defenses, with 3 of their 4 wins coming at home (4th was neutral site win over #17 defense Pitt in Nov.). We'll see on Friday if KU has declined too much to hang with the big boys or if they can catch a second wind. The more I look into the matchup, the more I like KU's chances to advance, though to be honest I would have probably found the positive numbers regardless.
Michigan seems like a really strong 4 seed don't they? (I also thought that UNC was an exceptionally strong #8 seed). Maybe its just homer whining, but it seems like KU's bracket was stacked (Florida I think could very well win it all) while other regions were pretty weak (who scares you in the West?)

I'm pretty worried about Michigan. McGary I thought looked really good against VCU. Now granted, facing Withey is a MUCH different story than facing VCU's bigs, but the guy had some agility, had a shot, and has a wide frame. If they land their shots from outside, it could be a tough matchup for KU. They're going to need Ben to produce something, I don't think you can expect to climb on Releford's back the entire tourney.

So, the K-State game. Are we going to talk about it? I think we need to talk about it. WTF.

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Re: 2012 - 2013 College Basketball Season

Post by chaglang » Mon Mar 25, 2013 12:21 pm

KCMax wrote:So, the K-State game. Are we going to talk about it? I think we need to talk about it. WTF.
Or the Mizzou game? Although, judging from the reaction of my Mizzou friends that game went exactly the way they thought it would. 2 boards out of Orhiaki is still pretty surprising.

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