2010-2011 College Basketball Season

[KCPowercat]

Metro.....wow and yikes. Not a good sign for the twins.

[Highlander]

Metro.....wow and yikes. Not a good sign for the twins.

I think Rush does a bit better but neither have been success stories.  Aldrich and Collins, though rookies are not doing well at all.  I though Aldrich was a gamble at best due to his poor offensive skills and Collins was always going to struggle due to height issues.  The Morris twins will be fine in the draft but what I can't understand is the hype around Thomas Robinson, he just isn't an NBA caliber talent and I would be surprised if he ever develops into more than an effective rebounder. 

[AJoD]

what is the best Self NBA success story?  I'm struggling.

Deron Williams

[kcmetro]

Metro.....wow and yikes. Not a good sign for the twins.

What does Mario have to do with the twins? 

[kcmetro]

I think Rush does a bit better but neither have been success stories.  Aldrich and Collins, though rookies are not doing well at all.  I though Aldrich was a gamble at best due to his poor offensive skills and Collins was always going to struggle due to height issues.  The Morris twins will be fine in the draft but what I can't understand is the hype around Thomas Robinson, he just isn't an NBA caliber talent and I would be surprised if he ever develops into more than an effective rebounder. 

At one time Mario was starting for the Heat and was their second leading scorer I believe, behind Wade.  Then Lebron came and he's not playing as much.

I don't think Thomas Robinson will be a stand-out in the NBA either.  He isn't the scoring threat he needs to be.  Right now he can score around the bucket, but he's not going to hurt you much 15 feet out.  He'll have to really work on his outside shot if he's going to do much damage at the next level.

[KCPowercat]

Just saying selfs nba flops aren't a good historical record for the success of these kids taking off now or in the future.

There is no doubt in my mind those twins will do some dumb aqib taking type of missteps in the nba....they just don't seem to have a very good head on their shoulders.

[KCMax]

For all the big college programs, KU probably puts out the worst NBA talent.  The only NBA star KU has is Pierce and maybe Chalmers.  Wilt Chamberlain is hard to top for all time talent though.

UNC, Duke, Memphis and Kentucky all have decent players in the NBA right now

I agree with this. KU hasn't really produced many stars. All the more impressive that they've accomplished what they have.

[chingon]

This is in part because KU hasn't had many "stars" at the college-game level. The program has long focussed on depth, preferring to field two great teams instead of one phenomenal one. A lot of other teams make tournaments and championships with the "Kimba Walker/Jacob Pullen and four other guys" approach, so I'm not implying KU strategy is any more effective in terms of outcomes, but they are a program which has historically and epecially recently focused on recruiting for team-dynamics.

That's why Selby is is such a square peg/round hole dud.

[WSPanic]

I guess I don't understand the "NBA standout" argument. I don't think many people here (including myself) are really qualified to say who these people are or aren't. Out of the "great schools" referenced (UNC, Duke, Kentucky, Memphis) - only one had a single player on either All Star roster. Hell - 1/3 of the all star game rosters didn't even go to college.

You may look down at guys like Hinrich, Collison, Gooden or Pollard - but they've each earned about $40 Million playing NBA ball. Don't see how that is an indictment of anyone.

Guys like Rush and Chalmers are looking at very lucrative, long NBA careeers. Henry and Arthur also have a pretty decent shot to stick. I'm not sold on Cole or Sherron making it big. Still - plenty of guys out there - Jackson and Julian Wright are still earning NBA checks.

I'd put those guys up against Sheldon Williams, Josh McRoberts, Reddick, etc. from Duke and the impact they're having. Outside of John Wall and Rondo, it's not like Kentucky's roster of NBA talent are all household names. Maybe Tayshaun.

[bobbyhawks]

Just saying selfs nba flops aren't a good historical record for the success of these kids taking off now or in the future.

Well, there are two ways to look at this.  There are NBA "flops," and then there are guys who get drafted higher than they should be.  If I am a recruit and I see that Self gets a number of guys drafted each year, and most of them probably go a few slots higher than they should, Self's program is worth the committment in salary jump alone.  Realistically, most of these guys perform to the average performance of that draft slot.  Hitting a Paul Pierce type player in a 10+ draft slot is pretty rare.

All told, Sasha Kaun could make as much money in basketball as any Self NBA player over his career.  As for KU players currently in the NBA:

Aldrich - Cole hasn't had a lot of opportunity as a rookie, and I don't think you can really evaluate him yet.

Darrell Arthur has had a better season this year and has given production at or above his draft slot (http://www.memphisflyer.com/BeyondtheAr ... ell-arthur)

Chalmers - As an on again off again starter in the NBA, he has well overperformed for his draft slot.

Collins - Second round pick.  Not expected to play much.  Made stupid decisions and is now in Lithuania.

Xavier - A rookie who came out too early.  The jury is still out on him.

Darnell Jackson - It seemed like a result of Championship fallout he was drafted at all, but he is still around and has outperformed his draft position.

Rush has been streaky and disappointing at times.  I couldn't say for sure, but I would guess his performance is about average for his draft position.

Julian Wright is probably the most disappointing.  He didn't get any time in New Orleans, and is only just now getting significant time with the Raptors.

Self did also coach Deron Williams, Luther Head, and Brian Cook, as well as four or five other guys who have since fizzled out.  Bottom line, he gets guys to the league.  Probably 30% of the all players drafted, if even that are still around 4 years later.  Expectations or not, it is still a crapshoot most of the time.

[TheBigChuckbowski]

If I am a recruit and I see that Self gets a number of guys drafted each year, and most of them probably go a few slots higher than they should, Self's program is worth the committment in salary jump alone.

What if you're a recruit that thinks you're a one and done and you notice that every previous one and done under Self has stayed two or three years except Xavier and maybe Selby (neither of which played like they were hyped their freshman year) because for whatever reason they weren't good enough.

[KCMax]

What if you're a recruit that thinks you're a one and done and you notice that every previous one and done under Self has stayed two or three years except Xavier and maybe Selby (neither of which played like they were hyped their freshman year) because for whatever reason they weren't good enough.

Such as? Doesn't seem like KU has had too many guys that were assumed to be "one and done."

[TheBigChuckbowski]

Such as? Doesn't seem like KU has had too many guys that were assumed to be "one and done."

Brandon Rush (#4SF). Rush, Julian Wright (#1PF) and Mario Chalmers (#2PG) were among the top 4 at their positions in 2005, and both Rush and Wright were thought of as one-and-dones, with Chalmers being a possibility but more likely a 2 and out.

http://www.bruinsnation.com/2011/3/22/2 ... ke-it-work

Arthur is a guy that will have immediate impact. He's also a guy that can potentially be one and done--which is another reason why his commitment would not affect any future recruiting.

http://www.pointguardu.com/f2/recruitin ... thur-2812/

Definitely not the best sources but these guys were definitely thought of as probable one and dones.

[bobbyhawks]

Such as? Doesn't seem like KU has had too many guys that were assumed to be "one and done."

The only ones I can think of would be Rush, Henry, and Selby.  Things worked out fine for Rush and Xavier.  Both were lottery picks.  Heck, Blake Griffin stayed two years, and it was easily the best decision he has ever made.  Out of the best NBA straight from high school players, a majority of them struggled out of the gate.  Of the one-and-done players in the NBA, most of them struggled out of the gate.  Even Durant and Beasley took a while to get the hang of the NBA style of play.

[bobbyhawks]

There is a pretty large difference between the kind of celebrated expectations of one-and-doneness that Rush, Henry, and Selby, along with guys like Beasley, Griffin, Durant had vs. the scouts saying that everyone in the top 20 has the potential to be a one-and-done guy. 

Darrell was ranked #16 in his class.  If all 16 were one-and-done, that would leave 14 spots for remaining college players and international guys.  I can find you articles that imply a guy could be one-and-done all day.  As a follower of KU bball, I can tell you Darrell was not thought of as a "probable" one-and-done, and Mario Chalmers wasn't even in that conversation.

[TheBigChuckbowski]

My point wasn't about whether or not they were celebrated one-and-dones. If a recruit thinks that he is going to be a one-and-done and he looks back at KU's past recruits and sees a bunch of a highly thought of guys coming out of high school and only sees one going to the NBA after a year, then he's probably going to listen to Calipari a little more.

[KCMax]

We'll see I guess, but I don't think KU has depended on a ton of one-and-done's in the past. Maybe that's why they don't have more rings - then again, Duke doesn't seem to have a ton of one and dones either. In fact, the only program that seems to is Calipari's.

[bobbyhawks]

My point wasn't about whether or not they were celebrated one-and-dones. If a recruit thinks that he is going to be a one-and-done and he looks back at KU's past recruits and sees a bunch of a highly thought of guys coming out of high school and only sees one going to the NBA after a year, then he's probably going to listen to Calipari a little more.

I can see that.  As great of a recruiter as Self is, Calipari is still way above everyone else in bringing in the absolute best ranked kids.  Just a few of the gets that Cal has had... Wall (Rivals #1), Cousins (Rivals #2), Rose (Rivals #3).  Self's best player ever at KU is Selby by ranking (Rivals #1).  The only others who make the top 20 are Wright at 8, Mario at 12, Rush at 13, and Henry at 8.  All of them left school early, but getting the top player, or one of the top 3 almost every year is a different ballgame.  I can see an argument for him not getting Selby the minutes he needed, but the dude was injured and ineligible for a large part of the season.  Only time will tell if he does well in the league.  As for Self, he has 100% delivered on making his top 20 players NBA players.

[Highlander]

I can see that.  As great of a recruiter as Self is, Calipari is still way above everyone else in bringing in the absolute best ranked kids.  Just a few of the gets that Cal has had... Wall (Rivals #1), Cousins (Rivals #2), Rose (Rivals #3).  Self's best player ever at KU is Selby by ranking (Rivals #1).  The only others who make the top 20 are Wright at 8, Mario at 12, Rush at 13, and Henry at 8.  All of them left school early, but getting the top player, or one of the top 3 almost every year is a different ballgame.  I can see an argument for him not getting Selby the minutes he needed, but the dude was injured and ineligible for a large part of the season.  Only time will tell if he does well in the league.  As for Self, he has 100% delivered on making his top 20 players NBA players.

It's pretty interesting that of Calipari's teams at Kentucky in the short time he has been there, this one was not all that loaded with freshman (it was loaded but not as much as the last couple of teams) and did probably the best.  Knight was the only huge freshman contributor in the tourney run and Lamb and Jones had decent tourneys but weren't as big for Kentucky as some of their veterens. 

I can't see how having team full of one-and-doners is fun for the fan and for the coach, it's like a race to see if the team can mature fast enough to have an opportunity for a run at the end of the season.  Last year with a loaded team, Kentucky lost the race easily.  Self seems to get an extra year or two out of a lot of players that may have been one and done's elsewhere.  Part of that is because KU is deep enough not to have to rely on guys like Selby so they don't develop huge egos from the start (although the jury is out on Selby as the ego seems to still be there, has he announced his intentions yet?)

[KCMax]

Kinda odd comments from Martin that one could construe into thinking he at least wants Miami to call him.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=6329886