Strong Earthquake Risk to Central U.S.

[cdschofield]

http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnatu ... adrid.html

Strain is building on a fault near Memphis, Tennessee that was the site of a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in 1812, according to new observations that settle a debate on the risk of another huge quake.

The odds of another 8.0 event within 50 years are between 7 and 10 percent, geologists said today. The assessment, based on new data from a recently installed array of sensors, puts to rest a 1990s claim that strain was not increasing.

[phuqueue]

This isn't really news.  The media retreads this story a couple times a year in their endless campaign of fearmongering.  It'll happen when it happens and there's little you can do except try to build sturdy buildings and make sure you've seen all you want to see in Memphis and St. Louis.

[eomaha.com]

Has there even been any effort in the midwest to build structures anywhere near close to the standards they have in Southern California??

I think I'm one of the only people in Omaha who has an earthquake rider on my home owners insurance (it's only $15 a year!!).  I guess in some regards it's probably stupid to have... since the government will either cover the rebuilding expenses... or I'll be the only one living there in the aftermath!

[KC0KEK]

This isn't really news.  The media retreads this story a couple times a year in their endless campaign of fearmongering. 

During college, I spent a couple of summers working in Cape Girardeau when there was a lot of hoopla over some scientist's prediction that a major quake would hit on a certain date. I think it was around 1991. The company I worked for socked away a supply of generators, canned goods, water, etc. I expected some people to get freaked out and squirrel away supplies, but I was surprised how seriously some companies took the prediction.

A lot of older homes in SEMO wouldn't survive because back in the early 20th century, apparently it wasn't standard practice to use lag bolts or other techniques to fasten the house to its foundation, at least in that part of the country. So in a strong quake, many would "walk" right off of their foundations.

[Chesterfieldkid03]

During college, I spent a couple of summers working in Cape Girardeau when there was a lot of hoopla over some scientist's prediction that a major quake would hit on a certain date. I think it was around 1991. The company I worked for socked away a supply of generators, canned goods, water, etc. I expected some people to get freaked out and squirrel away supplies, but I was surprised how seriously some companies took the prediction.

I remember when that happened, my whole family packed up and went to New York City for a week and a half. In fact, my whole street had left town. Nothing at all ended up happening.  We all looked like idiots. I was young when this happened and all I remember is getting a bunch of toys at FAO.

[GuyInLenexa]

Does anyone know how many of the buildings in KC are built to resist a major quake?  When I moved here with sprint I worked at Executive Hills East (903 W 104th St.)  People told me that that was the first tower built in KC that was earthquake proof.  I think it was built in the late or mid 80's.

[paisstat]

I grew up in S.E. Missouri and remember the earthquake prediction well.  The individual who caused the uproar was a scientist named Ivan Browning.  He predicted a quake down to the exact day, it was sometime in December 1991.  Everyone went nuts, buying canned goods, generators, gallons of water.  Everyone made several earthquake kits, etc--but then again it is S.E. Missouri, so go figure.  Of course nothing happened that night on the New Madrid fault, nor has there been any serious activity since then.  There are a few minor quakes a year with a magnitude of like 3.0, but I can only remember feeling one in my life. 

[Thrillcekr]

There's always a possibility of a strong earthquake in the central U.S.  everytime I eat extreme tator tots or bananas.

[Gladstoner]

There's always a possibility of a strong earthquake in the central U.S.  everytime I eat extreme tator tots or bananas.

Well, don't eat too many carrots, or there may be a tsunami as well. 

[Ingersoll1978]

I know Memphis has buildings that are built to withstand earthquakes.  You'd think all modern high-rises take it into account though.

[Gladstoner]

Unless they're anchored to bedrock deep down, I would stay away from any highrises on the plains near the rivers. Anything built on the floodplains will be more susceptible to damage. The soft sediments effectively become quicksand when shaken. Remember Mexico City in 1985? Those buildings were built on old lake sediments. Fortunately, St. Louis and Memphis, unlike many parts of San Francisco, are built higher up on bedrock. But then it may be 100 years or more before there are any significant earthquakes.

[Thrillcekr]

Well, don't eat too many carrots, or there may be a tsunami as well. 

Carrots don't seem to give me a case of the stinky bubbles.  Those extreme tator tots are covered with chilli, sour cream, onions, and cheese.  Within 30 minutes of eating a Sonic size tub of those my ass cheeks are clapping together like a group of gay guys giving a standing ovation after a live performance of Cats.

[Gladstoner]

Carrots don't seem to give me a case of the stinky bubbles.  Those extreme tator tots are covered with chilli, sour cream, onions, and cheese. 

Well, if I ate that, it'd be more like a pyroclastic flow.

Within 30 minutes of eating a Sonic size tub of those my ass cheeks are clapping together like a group of gay guys giving a standing ovation after a live performance of Cats.

Oh thanks for the visual.

[Gladstoner]

Hey, Cats is pretty....uh....ok.

*Ahem*

So how 'bout them Chiefs?

[Tosspot]

Carrots don't seem to give me a case of the stinky bubbles.  Those extreme tator tots are covered with chilli, sour cream, onions, and cheese.  Within 30 minutes of eating a Sonic size tub of those my ass cheeks are clapping together like a group of gay guys giving a standing ovation after a live performance of Cats.

[im2kull]

....But then it may be 100 years or more before there are any significant earthquakes.

Or it could happen tommorow.  Everyone talks about how southern California is overdue for the "big one", but what many people don't realize is that right now, the New Madrid fault line is a bigger risk to have a big quake than the San Andreas.  The odds are in favor of the new madrid quake happening before a California quake.
I bet that you didn't even realize there is a fault line right here in KC....the deepest part runs perfectly under downtown.  Sure, its not the size of the New Madrid, or San Andreas, but thats not what worrys the scientists.  What people fail to realize, is that if there was a big quake in SEMO, then it could potentially be bigger than a San Fran quake.  How?  The damage could stretch hundreds of miles because the big quake could set off tons of quakes on neighboring lines, like the downtown KC one.  It could potentially be a domino effect, reaching all the way from KC to Washington DC....instead of from Mexico to LA to the Pacific Ocean. 
Sure, We might not be dealing with Cities the size of LA or San Fran, but there is more people that would be effected by a quake on the New Madrid line.  Were talking about a huge area that could be potentially covered with destruction.  Many more houses and buildings would be affected because they arent built to withstand even a moderate quake.  The only large building in St. Louis capable of withstanding a large quake is the Arch.  Heck, that fault has even caused to Missippi river to reverse its flow. If a quake ever happens it could wipe out most of St. Louis, Cape Giredaou (sp?), Nashville, Louisville, Memphis, Little Rock, etc. 
My main point is that this all tends to be overlooked.  We arent on the west coast, so why worry about earthquakes?  The facts all point to a large quake happening sometime fairly soon in the future.  There is already a spike in the activity around the New Madrid fault.  There was even a series of 4.0+ quakes a few weeks ago. 

http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/heli_n ... 62000.gif  (activity in SEMO from June 20th)

[KC0KEK]

I know Memphis has buildings that are built to withstand earthquakes.  You'd think all modern high-rises take it into account though.

The KFVS-TV building in Cape Girardeau is about 10 stories and three blocks from the Mississippi, and I vaguely remember reading that it's earthquake-proof.

[im2kull]

The KFVS-TV building in Cape Girardeau is about 10 stories and three blocks from the Mississippi, and I vaguely remember reading that it's earthquake-proof.

If a big earthquake happens, it wont matter whether or not the building is listed as "earthquake proof".  I remember the titanic being touted as unsinkable.

[Gladstoner]

If a big earthquake happens, it wont matter whether or not the building is listed as "earthquake proof".  I remember the titanic being touted as unsinkable.

Well, when the big one happens, there will be two kinds of buildings: those that were earthquake-proof, and those that weren't.

[Gladstoner]

I bet that you didn't even realize there is a fault line right here in KC....the deepest part runs perfectly under downtown.  Sure, its not the size of the New Madrid, or San Andreas, but thats not what worrys the scientists.  What people fail to realize, is that if there was a big quake in SEMO, then it could potentially be bigger than a San Fran quake.  How?  The damage could stretch hundreds of miles because the big quake could set off tons of quakes on neighboring lines, like the downtown KC one.  It could potentially be a domino effect, reaching all the way from KC to Washington DC....instead of from Mexico to LA to the Pacific Ocean. 

I've heard the extensive reach of earthquakes in this region is due to the relatively continuous nature of the bedrock. In a sense, it would ring like a bell. On the other hand, in California, there is a veritable spider web of faults separating a diverse jumble of rock types that tends to dampen seismic waves as they propagate outward.

Incidentally, some small faults are visible along the southern leg of I-470 near Raytown Road. Images are at

http://www.umkc.edu/sites/env-sci/virge ... site1c.htm

In a sense, these are "fossil earthquakes", but they likely pose no danger.