Northland a big part in making KCMO a very large city soon.

[KCgridlock]

What do you think of this?

I have seen the MARC forcasts etc for the northland growth. They seem to predict a modest yet stable growth of the northland sort of like the mid 80's to mid 90's.

Mark my words, KC, North is going to be HUGE in the not to distant future. KC, North along with other suburbs of Liberty, Parkville etc are going to explode like you would not believe. The ball has just begun to start rolling up there in the late 90's and they are building far more homes than any other part of the metro. Shoal Creek Valley (projected population of 45,000) just broke ground.

New infrastructure and upscale retail is finally coming. The area is conveinent to everything (KCI, Downtown, Plaza, even JoCo or East Jack depending on which side of Northland you live on). There are nowere near the traffic problems that JoCo and E Jack face (yet) and there is plenty of land.

IMO, it's gona boom up there like no other, pushing KCMO population once again to above 500,000 (possibly a lot more) in the near future. Plus KCMO is building new homes in far south and east KCMO limits. The area of KCMO that runs between Lee's Summit and Raytown is starting to see considerable action after decades of nothing. Plus the Martin City and strong west side and a rebirth of urban living and east side renewal projects like Brush Creek and Beacon Hill should dramatically slow down the bleeding from the core.

What do you think?

[KC0KEK]

I live in Fairway, and my wife and I have looked at homes in the older neighborhoods that ring downtown Liberty. All in all, Liberty seems to be a great place. My impression is that regardless of whether you're looking at older areas or new subdivisions, you get a lot more house for your money than in many parts of JoCo, especially Northeast JoCo. Even so, it would be tough to leave Fairway.

[QueSi2Opie]

The problem is that people from South of the River move North of the River...causing a population shift instead of a population rise.

[ShowME]

What's also interesting on MARC's website are the numbers about people moving to which county and what county they were moving from. Anyways my girlfriend and I will probably be moving to Kansas City North within the next 3-6 months. Gridlock you're right about the Northland's growth being huge in the coming years. Call me crazy but I see Kansas City, Missouri's population being close to 550,000 by 2010 and possibly 600,000-650,000 by 2015-2020. Here's how it's gonna happen.

First of all the core neighborhood's of Kansas City, MO need to stabilize which I feel they really have within the last 2-4 years. This has happened IMO due to the ever-increasing cost of housing throughout the metro area. My definition of core neighborhoods would be from downtown south along Troost Ave all the way to around 95th Street. I feel many residents of this area instead of leaving the core and investing in some other part of the metro have in turn decided that it's just not economically feasible to do so and have decided to either remodel there existing house or now there's some evidence of new construction within the core itself. If the core can continue to stabilize and even add some new housing inventory this would greatly benefit KCMO's numbers.

Continued....

[ShowME]

Secondly, South Kansas City (south of I-435) still has some land that remains undeveloped. I'm not too familiar with the area east of Holmes so I'll just stick to what I know best which is west of Holmes and South all the way to the Cass County line. There are many area's that are currently being platted for new single family homes along both Wornall and Holmes Rd. Examples of this can be seen just east and south of Blue Hill's South. These aren't entry level homes either. Most will run over $225,000 and they're not on acre lots either. A good example of this is the new subdivision called Newcastle off State Line and Blue Ridge Blvd. I do wish they would build more upscale townhomes in the area though.

Finally, a future increase in KCMO's numbers will be largely dependant on Kansas City North substantially increasing it's housing stock which I feel won't be a problem at all. I'm sure it's out there but I haven't come across it but I would be interested in seeing the amount of undeveloped land in Kansas City, MO north of the river. There are 4 corridor's that I feel will be the biggest providers for future population growth in KCMO for the next 10-20 years.
1. MO-152- This area is already exploding with growth and will continue to do so. Sections of this stretch of roadway are already getting to the built out phase. Future growth lies on land adjacent to I-435 by Pleasant Hill and also on the west side of MO-152 near I-435 west of I-29.

2. MO-92- This highway runs east-west like MO-152 but further north. I'm sure a big chunk of it is not even in KCMO's city limits. If the city can afford it I'd annex it in a heartbeat. This will be the next area people will turn to when they're looking for affordable housing and after MO-152 is built out.

3. NE Arc of I-435 near Cunningham Dr.- This may seem like you're in the middle of nowhere at times but it still lies within KCMO's city limits. This area has been quiet until the past 10 years. Now new developers are building due to cheap land and infrastructure that's already been in place for many years, mainly I-435 itself.

4. Western I-435 area- This area lies from I-435 & MO-152 north up to Platte City. A good 90-95% of this area is undeveloped. I-435 is lightly traveled. It's in good shape and plus this area borders KCI.

Any comments??

[KCgridlock]

Show-Me,

Couldn't agree more, the needed northland housing is already happening and it's gonna snowball even more than JoCo did in the 80's, "mark my word".

That's just the northland, add other areas KCMO that are growing like the far south and east sides as you said and with a growing downtown-plaza population, KCMO's pop will hit 500k pretty quick. The east side will continue to loose population, but is stablelized for the reasons you mentioned.

Because KCMO is not landlocked to the north, it could very easily become a mega city by itslelf in the next 50 years with 6,7 or even 800k+. Parkville and Liberty will be like Lee's Summit or Olathe and KCMO will have all the rest including the entire 435 corridor. In even twenty years, 435 will be a different animal up north.

[Cyburbia]

Secondly, South Kansas City (south of I-435) still has some land that remains undeveloped. I'm not too familiar with the area east of Holmes so I'll just stick to what I know best which is west of Holmes and South all the way to the Cass County line.

There's a small portion of KCMO that extends into Cass County. Since Missouri allows cross-county annexations, there's nothing stopping KCMO expansion further south. That is, unless one of the municipalities to the east flagpoles south and west to the state line. Just ask Leawood.

[Cyburbia]

Couldn't agree more, the needed northland housing is already happening and it's gonna snowball even more than JoCo did in the 80's, "mark my word".

Thing is, most metropolitan areas have what I call a "power corridor," where the bulk of higher-end suburban growth will be oriented way itno the future. It doesn't matter if houses are cheaper per square foot, taxes are lower, or the commute is shorter ... the growth in suburban "late bloomer zones" and "forgotten zones" usually won't surpass that of the power corridor.

Want examples?

Buffalo - the "Golden Spike" in areas north and west of Main Street, from downtown out to the northeastern Northtowns (Amherst, Clarence). The Northtowns are flat, swampy, and a commute to downtown Buffalo from their outer edge can take 40 minutes. Property taxes in Amherst are among the highest in the United States; around 4% of the full appraisal value. The Southtowns are hilly, there's more direct expressways to downtown, commutes are very short, there's charming villages forming the core of the towns (Hamburg, Orchard Park, East Aurora), and you've got both ski resorts and the Lake Erie beaches within a few minutes drive.

Development in the Southtowns were stunted until about 25 years ago, when heavy industry in Buffalo slowed to a crawl; the funky smell cleared, and the builders started popping up 3,000 square foot houses. Still, the Northtowns continue to push out further and further; among builders and realtors, it's still where the real action is at. The demographics are a bit different, too; the Northtowns are upper middle class and wealthy professional, while the Southtowns lean middle and upper middle income blue collar. The Southtowns are almost entirely white and heavily Catholic; the Northtowns include decent-sized yet well-integrated Jewish, Indian, Chinese and African-American communities.

For a while, I lived in Orlando's western suburbs. Orlando's "power corridor" is to the north along I-4; through Winter Park, Longwood, Lake Mary and Sanford. Development to the west of Orlando was stunted until the late 1980s; it finally opened up after some nasty frosts killed off the area's orange groves. They can't build houses fast enough in the western 'burbs, but there's almost no office. Retail ... the big chains are there, but many other national and local chains are everywhere but in West Orange. Restaurants ... mainly hole-in-the-wall lunch counters, Chiense take-out and standard mid-end chains. Mid-end local restauranteurs won't touch West Orange with a ten foot pole.

Why? Rednecks, or the reputation thereof. One western suburb, Winter Garden, is a working class community with a strong Southern-oriented cultural heritage; retail there is domianted by heavy equipment rental, auto parts sales, shed sales, tractor trailer sales, and so on. In upper middle income subdivisions in Ocoee and Oakland, and middle class areas like Clermont, there's far more tradespeople then professionals. Look at West Orange, and think Raytown ... granted, a sunny Raytown with big stucco-faced houses and planned communities, but Raytown nonetheless. NPR? New American cuisine? Wine tastings? Nope ... huntin', fishin', shootin', workin' on the truck, and Nextel. (For some reason, in Central Florida folks working in the construction, building and mechanical trades are culturally Southern, while white collar and hospitality workers are culturally Northern.) Pulte could build 4,000 square foot houses all the way to the Gulf, and probably fill 'em all ... but forget about restaurants or Class 1 office. The north will continue to grow, because that's where the professionals and upscale singles will congregate.

There's a lot of other "forgotten zones" in urban areas throughout the country. The southern suburbs of Dallas, Adams County northeast of Denver, St. Louis east metro, and Albuquerque west of the Rio Grande.

[KCgridlock]

True and the northland will have a hard time if ever trully overtaking JoCo in pure upscale suburban housing and suburban class A office space.

But...the Northland just has too many things in it's favor. KC's northland is by far the closest big chunk of undeveloped land to a major cities urban core in the country. Other areas of the city are building out. Plus the northland is already overcoming it's stereotypes. Although it's still pretty neck along the I-35 corridor towards Liberty etc, the I-29 and 152 corridors are typical upscale suburban. Plus the location being near, Downtown, KCI, Class A office parks (northland has many), casinos, WOF, Smithville Lake and the terrain and views from the river Bluffs. It's gonna boom.

[KCDevin]

how could the growth of other cities benefit Kansas City, MO?

[dangerboy]

Unfortunately we are about the lose the opportunity to shape the growth of the Northland into something better the typical sprawl that already exists south of the river. While the projects like Shoal Creek Valley, Zona Rosa, and Renaissance North are great mixed-used/new urbanist projects - for everyone of those the city is still approving 5 strip malls and 10 cul-de-sacs.