Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Issues concerning Downtown as described by the Downtown Council. River to 31st Street, I-35 to Bruce R. Watkins.
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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by im2kull » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:08 pm

GRID wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:59 pm
That article states that One and Two light are only around 80% occupied and some of other new properties are pretty low. This could be a main reason for Three Light taking so long to get off the ground.
Three Light hasn't gotten off the ground yet because of the idiocy that the city council pulled in renegading on their end of the longstanding contract with Cordish that began our DT revitalization. That's it.

Cordish has NO motivation to move forward on anything quickly now that the city council has decided to bring politics into the mix. Cordish has been doing us a great favor, and for the council to shit on them that way surely upset their ownership. Why do any kind of favors for someone who doesn't appreciate them?

Three light was READY to break ground.. but the council playing games made Cordish decided to delay that at least a year. We're lucky they didn't just scrap the whole project, and if they weren't just weeks away from the original groundbreaking, then they would have scrapped Three Light.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by KCPowercat » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:15 pm

KC_JAYHAWK wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:31 pm
I agree with Grid. I work downtown and have for 12 years and it still feels dead most of the day (excluding lunch). There are just no people walking around. In my building, 1KCP, Swiss Re recently moved in which pretty much has maxed out the tower. Still pissed Cerner is not interested in building downtown, but not sure what the City can do without Cerner just jumping the stateline, like Swiss Re did.

At some point Copaken is going to have to take a risk and build a spec building downtown, even if it is only 10-12 stories. Or Cordish?

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/ ... -move.html
I think if you stepped out of your doors 12 years ago and then the next time you stepped out was today you'd be shocked by the change...seeing it every day we miss the growth over the past decade.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by GRID » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:17 pm

KCPowercat wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:15 pm
KC_JAYHAWK wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:31 pm
I agree with Grid. I work downtown and have for 12 years and it still feels dead most of the day (excluding lunch). There are just no people walking around. In my building, 1KCP, Swiss Re recently moved in which pretty much has maxed out the tower. Still pissed Cerner is not interested in building downtown, but not sure what the City can do without Cerner just jumping the stateline, like Swiss Re did.

At some point Copaken is going to have to take a risk and build a spec building downtown, even if it is only 10-12 stories. Or Cordish?

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/ ... -move.html
I think if you stepped out of your doors 12 years ago and then the next time you stepped out was today you'd be shocked by the change...seeing it every day we miss the growth over the past decade.
True, but you have to realize that KC is no different than almost every other city in the country. It's actually probably still in the lower half or third when you look at all commercial development rather than just residential. In the past 12 years almost every city has drastically changed. I can only think of a few that haven't. Memphis, Buffalo, St Louis etc. The residential growth in downtown KC has been pretty awesome going from basically nothing to some impressive numbers, but on a national scale, it's pretty average at best. I do realize that much of KC's growth is not as visible because the city renovated and re-purposed so many underused or vacant buildings which don't change the skyline.

Yes, the residential growth in downtown KC has been impressive. But is it sustainable? Possibly. I guess everybody will find out. But if vacancy rates really start to increase and rents drop, then downtown is just not going to see a lot more than a few more low rise apartments scattered about over the next decade. I really think the city needs some high paying white collar jobs downtown in order to keep the momentum going. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but it's really sad that with as much as downtown KC has changed over the past ten years that the metro is still extremely suburban oriented. Not one major move downtown, not one sizable new class A office structure? It's just crazy.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by GRID » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:23 pm

im2kull wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:08 pm
GRID wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:59 pm
That article states that One and Two light are only around 80% occupied and some of other new properties are pretty low. This could be a main reason for Three Light taking so long to get off the ground.
Three Light hasn't gotten off the ground yet because of the idiocy that the city council pulled in renegading on their end of the longstanding contract with Cordish that began our DT revitalization. That's it.

Cordish has NO motivation to move forward on anything quickly now that the city council has decided to bring politics into the mix. Cordish has been doing us a great favor, and for the council to shit on them that way surely upset their ownership. Why do any kind of favors for someone who doesn't appreciate them?

Three light was READY to break ground.. but the council playing games made Cordish decided to delay that at least a year. We're lucky they didn't just scrap the whole project, and if they weren't just weeks away from the original groundbreaking, then they would have scrapped Three Light.
Then the market is not ready. Didn't the city basically give Cordish a 20 million dollar garage plus a bunch of other incentives for that tower? I mean that doesn't make Cordish bust out the cranes, what will? Cordish has every reason to build that tower now. They are getting some of the best incentives any city in the country would give a developer, they are building residential which will help support their own P&L district. If they still can't make the numbers work then something is wrong. It may be the price point. Is KC ready for another high end residential tower? I just wonder if they are getting cold feet. I'm surprised One light is down to 80% already.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by GRID » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:32 pm

KC_JAYHAWK wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:31 pm
I agree with Grid. I work downtown and have for 12 years and it still feels dead most of the day (excluding lunch). There are just no people walking around. In my building, 1KCP, Swiss Re recently moved in which pretty much has maxed out the tower. Still pissed Cerner is not interested in building downtown, but not sure what the City can do without Cerner just jumping the stateline, like Swiss Re did.

At some point Copaken is going to have to take a risk and build a spec building downtown, even if it is only 10-12 stories. Or Cordish?

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/ ... -move.html
Downtown KC is by far the deadest "feeling" major downtown in the country. It just has almost no city "bustle" what so ever. It hasn't had that vibe since the 20's - 50's when it was a major shopping and entertainment destination for everybody in the metro. There are a few pockets that actually feel busy like Broadway or parts of Main and it gets busy near venues during events, but for the most part, it always feels like a Sunday morning in most of downtown KC.

But I really think this has everything to do with how downtown KC is laid out. Between the rivers, the bluffs, the industrial districts and all the freeways there is almost no urban fabric connecting downtown KC to anything else. It's an island. So I don't hold that against KC. Even with twice the development, I think downtown KC would feel comparatively "dead". The positive side of how the downtown area is laid out is how many very unique and different districts there are in the downtown area.

I do think Main street will become KC's vibrant urban corridor over the next ten years. It will always have lots of people walking on it etc. It's starting to happen now, but I think it will really take off over the next decade.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by KCPowercat » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:41 pm

GRID wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:17 pm
KCPowercat wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:15 pm
KC_JAYHAWK wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:31 pm
I agree with Grid. I work downtown and have for 12 years and it still feels dead most of the day (excluding lunch). There are just no people walking around. In my building, 1KCP, Swiss Re recently moved in which pretty much has maxed out the tower. Still pissed Cerner is not interested in building downtown, but not sure what the City can do without Cerner just jumping the stateline, like Swiss Re did.

At some point Copaken is going to have to take a risk and build a spec building downtown, even if it is only 10-12 stories. Or Cordish?

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/ ... -move.html
I think if you stepped out of your doors 12 years ago and then the next time you stepped out was today you'd be shocked by the change...seeing it every day we miss the growth over the past decade.
True, but you have to realize that KC is no different than almost every other city in the country. It's actually probably still in the lower half or third when you look at all commercial development rather than just residential. In the past 12 years almost every city has drastically changed. I can only think of a few that haven't. Memphis, Buffalo, St Louis etc. The residential growth in downtown KC has been pretty awesome going from basically nothing to some impressive numbers, but on a national scale, it's pretty average at best. I do realize that much of KC's growth is not as visible because the city renovated and re-purposed so many underused or vacant buildings which don't change the skyline.
Yup didn't say KC was unique, just that for those of us down here everyday, we don't see the incremental increases.
Yes, the residential growth in downtown KC has been impressive. But is it sustainable? Possibly. I guess everybody will find out. But if vacancy rates really start to increase and rents drop, then downtown is just not going to see a lot more than a few more low rise apartments scattered about over the next decade. I really think the city needs some high paying white collar jobs downtown in order to keep the momentum going. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but it's really sad that with as much as downtown KC has changed over the past ten years that the metro is still extremely suburban oriented. Not one major move downtown, not one sizable new class A office structure? It's just crazy.

There isn't data supporting vacancy rates rising or rents dropping. Quite the opposite.

No doubt we need more jobs downtown, we still need more everything downtown and that growth continues....but job location isn't becoming as key as it once was with working from home and other non-traditional job situations becoming more standard everywhere....placemaking will keep people downtown and more moving down here, KC doesn't have to deal with traffic to make the location of one's job that impactful to where we live.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by KCDowntown » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:18 am

KCPowercat wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:15 pm
I think if you stepped out of your doors 12 years ago and then the next time you stepped out was today you'd be shocked by the change...seeing it every day we miss the growth over the past decade.
I lived downtown from 1998 - 2012, and there is no comparison from that time to today. Downtown streets are vastly busier. There are corners downtown now with steady activity for most of the day (5th and Walnut, Cosentino's corner, 12th & Main, even 19th & Main does pretty well). This was never the case when I was down there.

KCDowntown

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by KCPowercat » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:47 am

Yeah it's fun to say we aren't moving fast enough but wow we've come a long way since I got down here about that same time.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by KC_JAYHAWK » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:52 am

I would agree, from the RM to the Crossroads, KC has done very well with adding new construction, re-habbing old buildings and other infill projects. The one area truly lacking is new business and commercial office buildings. I would imagine downtown office capacity is pretty high, so not sure why no local developers will build a spec building when they build spec buildings in the burbs all the time? I hope we can keep up the residential, but I have concerns that after 3 Light is built, it might be a while before 4 light even gets off the ground.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by rxlexi » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:53 am

That occupancy data seems way low to me. A quick look at even the limited free data available via Realpage (https://www.realpage.com/explore/#/main) paints a much prettier, and likely more accurate, picture. One Light is showing 88.9% occupancy with avg. effective rent at $2.01 psf. Still a little low on occ. but much more realistic.

RE: the debate about progress overall, I think we can be both far behind other cities (my god, look at what Denver has done with the railroad gulch behind Union Station, all the way up through RiNo, the Highlands, etc.), and yet very significantly ahead of where we were several years ago. Probably a faster 0-60 than many cities given the absolute lack of energy previous.

The transformation has been dramatic, despite a long way to go. I live downtown and it is a joy to watch; feels like each new project injects a tangible amount of energy into the overall scene. Getting some legit new office space, retail space, and/or cultural improvements, beyond the explosion of bars and restaurants, is the next big step to draw and keep residents.

Edit: re: occupancy rates downtown, I am referring to stabilized projects, not lease ups like Crossroads Westside and Union. Assuming those will take some time to fill, not unreasonable

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by KCLover » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:43 pm

Realistically, no office towers are going to be built downtown as long as companies keep building low rise towers in Overland Park. 1,000 new employees in a downtown spec office tower would sure be nice, but instead, they are going to an empty parking lot at 95th & Metcalf.

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/ ... plans.html

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by Highlander » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:04 pm

shinatoo wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:54 pm
$2000 a month gets you a $350k home or a 2 bed 2 bath apartment with one parking spot. I think most people would opt for a house. $350k in KC gets you a pretty sweet place.
In the burbs. Not in KC's urban core.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by chrizow » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:20 pm

GRID wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:32 pm

Downtown KC is by far the deadest "feeling" major downtown in the country. It just has almost no city "bustle" what so ever. It hasn't had that vibe since the 20's - 50's when it was a major shopping and entertainment destination for everybody in the metro. There are a few
I don't dispute that downtown KC is pretty moribund most of the time, but the same is true with almost every other city in our peer group--even places with a lot more downtown development and buzz like Charlotte, Indy, etc. There are legitimately like 8-10 cities in America with a large amount of "bustle" on a regular basis. It's just where our country is at, with 90% of people in any downtown area having arrived by car for some specific purpose, and then leaving in their car after that purpose has been completed.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by Highlander » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:24 pm

chrizow wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:20 pm
GRID wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:32 pm

Downtown KC is by far the deadest "feeling" major downtown in the country. It just has almost no city "bustle" what so ever. It hasn't had that vibe since the 20's - 50's when it was a major shopping and entertainment destination for everybody in the metro. There are a few
I don't dispute that downtown KC is pretty moribund most of the time, but the same is true with almost every other city in our peer group--even places with a lot more downtown development and buzz like Charlotte, Indy, etc. There are legitimately like 8-10 cities in America with a large amount of "bustle" on a regular basis. It's just where our country is at, with 90% of people in any downtown area having arrived by car for some specific purpose, and then leaving in their car after that purpose has been completed.
I was recently in Denver and was surprised how few people were in downtown Denver at night. Lunchtime was bustling but at 6 pm, we were practically the only people on the 16th street mall.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by beautyfromashes » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:27 pm

We are seeing a change in the tastes for people in this city. It will continue for many, many decades...generations. Right now, recruiters who bring in professionals with kids to work in the city will likely push those people to houses in Johnson County or the Northland. They will say they have the best schools and are “safe”. There will come a point where this will change and central neighborhoods will be the most desirable. The suburbs will decline. DT will be the desired location for commerce and high end jobs. It will take a long time, but the trend has already started.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by chrizow » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:33 pm

Highlander wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:04 pm
shinatoo wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:54 pm
$2000 a month gets you a $350k home or a 2 bed 2 bath apartment with one parking spot. I think most people would opt for a house. $350k in KC gets you a pretty sweet place.
In the burbs. Not in KC's urban core.
I suppose "sweet" is in the eye of the beholder, but you can definitely do well in KC's urban core for around 350K. Here are some examples I found in about 5 minutes on Zillow:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3331 ... 9005_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3428 ... 9113_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3819 ... 1843_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1000 ... 8958_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3338 ... 9070_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5700 ... 2536_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5636 ... 2388_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2819 ... 7803_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3416 ... 8577_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2840 ... 7827_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2716 ... 7762_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4901 ... 5554_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/27-E ... 1604_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/45-E ... 1600_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/60-E ... 1625_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/35-W ... 8906_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6000 ... 3804_zpid/

We paid 318K for our house in Morningside in 2017. It's not crazy big or luxurious or anything but it's a nice BKS house that works well for our family and the location is really nice.

ALSO: 350K doesn't get you much at all in "desirable" areas of the suburbs. Definitely not close-in burbs like Fairway, PV, old Leawood, and even in SoJoCo it will get you a 20+ year old house that needs a lot of updates. You can do a bit better (newer, larger house) in places like Lee's Summit, Raymore, or the far Northland but then you have to drive 10-40 minutes to do anything worthwhile.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by Highlander » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:56 pm

GRID wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:59 pm
https://cityscenekc.com/downtown-dazzle ... -saturday/


With the lack of downtown jobs (especially tech type jobs that appeal to younger people) you have to think downtown is reaching that saturation point of those willing to pay more to live downtown AND commute to suburban jobs.
The lack of downtown jobs concerns me about another booming industry in KC. The hotel industry. So many hotels under construction and recently opened. Just wondering where that demand will come from with so few businesses being based downtown.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by normalthings » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:02 pm

Highlander wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:56 pm
GRID wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:59 pm
https://cityscenekc.com/downtown-dazzle ... -saturday/


With the lack of downtown jobs (especially tech type jobs that appeal to younger people) you have to think downtown is reaching that saturation point of those willing to pay more to live downtown AND commute to suburban jobs.
The lack of downtown jobs concerns me about another booming industry in KC. The hotel industry. So many hotels under construction and recently opened. Just wondering where that demand will come from with so few businesses being based downtown.
Conventions. Both growth in the number of conventions and an increase in % of conventioneers who stay downtown vs staying in the suburbs and driving/busing into Bartle Hall.

Including announced projects, KC still a very low ratio of downtown keys/downtown convention space

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by brewcrew1000 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:09 pm

beautyfromashes wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:27 pm
We are seeing a change in the tastes for people in this city. It will continue for many, many decades...generations. Right now, recruiters who bring in professionals with kids to work in the city will likely push those people to houses in Johnson County or the Northland. They will say they have the best schools and are “safe”. There will come a point where this will change and central neighborhoods will be the most desirable. The suburbs will decline. DT will be the desired location for commerce and high end jobs. It will take a long time, but the trend has already started.
I agree with this. I know someone who is moving here in a couple weeks from North Dakota to work at KC Art Insitute. They were told repeatly by co-workers, friends, family to avoid living in the area right around KCAI and that they should look on the Kansas Side.

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Re: Are downtown apartment occupancy rapidly trending down?

Post by snigglefritz » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:19 pm

normalthings wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:02 pm
Highlander wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:56 pm
GRID wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:59 pm
https://cityscenekc.com/downtown-dazzle ... -saturday/


With the lack of downtown jobs (especially tech type jobs that appeal to younger people) you have to think downtown is reaching that saturation point of those willing to pay more to live downtown AND commute to suburban jobs.
The lack of downtown jobs concerns me about another booming industry in KC. The hotel industry. So many hotels under construction and recently opened. Just wondering where that demand will come from with so few businesses being based downtown.
Conventions. Both growth in the number of conventions and an increase in % of conventioneers who stay downtown vs staying in the suburbs and driving/busing into Bartle Hall.

Including announced projects, KC still a very low ratio of downtown keys/downtown convention space
I've asked this a number of times, to a number of different people, but is there actually a hard-and-fast, golden ratio for hotel rooms:convention space?

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