Next Mayor 2019

[johnmatrix]

Anyway lets get this puppy back on topic.

Does anyone seeing this being a close race?

[kboish]

I think it will be portrayed that way for clicks for the duration of the campaign, but ultimately Jolie will win by a comfortable margin.

[flyingember]

I think it will be portrayed that way for clicks for the duration of the campaign, but ultimately Jolie will win by a comfortable margin.

I'm purposefully aiming for an extreme view to think what could happen in terms of turnout.

How identity results in choices during an election difficult to predict. There's no uniform answer on if a black woman would pick a woman because they want to elect a woman, pick a black man because they want to elect more African Americans or won't pick someone because they're gay.

There's going to be some voters that will never vote for someone who's gay, no matter their qualifications. It's possible that a lot of white men vote dramatically different from recent history and vote for Lucas.

I could see some people not voting for either candidate on purpose. There's voters that just won't vote for a woman still and there's a large contingent of voters that didn't vote for Obama and will never vote for someone who's black. I wouldn't be surprised if turnout will end up being higher in the primary in some precincts.

[DaveKCMO]

Keep in mind that the people who actually turn out to vote in KCMO skew pretty liberal. If you were to measure the front runners on a partisan spectrum they would both be very left of center.

We've never had an openly gay candidate before, but there's every reason to believe that it will not be an impediment to an otherwise qualified and well-liked candidate.

A more relevant discussion might be about the Northland voting patterns...

[kboish]

On a side note. Does anyone have precinct level data on how the 4th district at-large voting came out? Or at least the Inside 4th district voting versus outside 4th-district?

If it were true that Shields is only being elected b/c of those outside her district are voting for her, it would be a great thing for her opponent to run on.

[kboish]

A more relevant discussion might be about the Northland voting patterns...

Yep. the question is how will these votes be reallocated?

I can see Wagner, Taylor, and Miller's votes going to Jolie. Right?

[flyingember]

On a side note. Does anyone have precinct level data on how the 4th district at-large voting came out? Or at least the Inside 4th district voting versus outside 4th-district?

If it were true that Shields is only being elected b/c of those outside her district are voting for her, it would be a great thing for her opponent to run on.

KCEB doesn't have this data online but Clay does.

Precincts don't line up perfectly to council districts but the 4th is basically 21 Gallatin 2, 21 Gallatin3 and 21 Gallatin 11

start on page 37

https://www.claycoelections.com/vertica ... FICIAL.pdf

23-2: 67% for Shields
21-3: 66% for Shields
21-11: 69% for Shields

So in Clay at least, she's arguably more popular inside the 4th than outside it.

[kboish]

On a side note. Does anyone have precinct level data on how the 4th district at-large voting came out? Or at least the Inside 4th district voting versus outside 4th-district?

If it were true that Shields is only being elected b/c of those outside her district are voting for her, it would be a great thing for her opponent to run on.

KCEB doesn't have this data online but Clay does.

Precincts don't line up perfectly to council districts but the 4th is basically 21 Gallatin 2, 21 Gallatin3 and 21 Gallatin 11

start on page 37

https://www.claycoelections.com/vertica ... FICIAL.pdf

23-2: 67% for Shields
21-3: 66% for Shields
21-11: 69% for Shields

So in Clay at least, she's arguably more popular inside the 4th than outside it.

But how can you say that? The KCEB only shows data with the 3, 4, 5, and 6 combined.

[flyingember]

Because I only said it for north of the river?

[flyingember]

I can see Wagner, Taylor, and Miller's votes going to Jolie. Right?

Again, not necessarily.

That's the point earlier about demographics and elections. It's dramatically more complex than the part of town someone lives in precisely because the candidates are traditional liberal candidates who both fall under demographics that are equally negative aspects for many more conservative voters.

Don't underestimate the power of not picking someone for mayor. Especially when there's enough primary candidate votes to swing the election.

[kboish]

Because I only said it for north of the river?

You showed results from the Northland and then said

So in Clay at least, she's arguably more popular inside the 4th than outside it.

How do you know how popular she was inside the 4th? I guess I'm not following.

[DaveKCMO]

KCEB precinct data will come after they certify.

[beautyfromashes]

Really torn on this election. They both have been decent councilperson s and will continue city development. I don’t really feel like we can go too wrong. Not a fan of Lucas’ affordable housing plans in the limited details so far and Justus was shaky on the airport, imo.

[johnmatrix]

I can see Wagner, Taylor, and Miller's votes going to Jolie. Right?

Again, not necessarily.

That's the point earlier about demographics and elections. It's dramatically more complex than the part of town someone lives in precisely because the candidates are traditional liberal candidates who both fall under demographics that are equally negative aspects for many more conservative voters.

Don't underestimate the power of not picking someone for mayor. Especially when there's enough primary candidate votes to swing the election.

I cant find the stats perhaps you can but I would be interested to see how James performed in the Northland back in 2011?

[flyingember]

Platte has that election online still
http://www.plattemovotes.org/results

Clay votes more liberal on the south end of the county but looks a lot like Platte overall

He did horrible in the primary coming in 4th in that county
Burke, Funkhowser, Herman, James

Then in the general he lost Every precinct in the county and 70-30 overall in the county
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... 467369910/

There were only 6600 votes in the county for mayor compared to 48,000 south of the river where the results were 60-40.

[flyingember]

For 2015, he won 88.7% south of the river of 25773 votes
81.7 in Clay. 6214 voters
86.7 in Platte. 2180 votes

So Platte had less than 1/3 the voters in 2015. That’s a huge drop from election to election. Almost 4500 people didn’t vote in the general from 11 to 15 and the drop from 2015 primary to 2015 general was only 800 of that.

To put that in context, south of the river in 2011 12,000 more people voted in the general compared to the primary. The candidate energizes the electorate In 2015 it was 2000 more in the general but about a 50% drop overall.

In 2015 Clay dropped by only 100 voters from primary to general in 2015. It was stable but thousands lower than the 2019 primary

The primary in 2015 in Clay was 73% for James with 6300 votes. 10% voted for Chastain in the primary.
Platte voted about 10% for Chastain in 2015 too

So this shows Clay probably was very similar to Platte in 2011 for its results. I don’t remember but he probably didn’t make the top three there either

[kcjak]

I haven't seen anything from Clay Chastain on his latest drubbing. Anyone?

[johnmatrix]

I'm just glad we don't have to see Klein's cheap signs that read like office motivational quotes

[normalthings]

Can someone explain this affordable housing thing to me? I don’t exactly get:

1. Why this is needed in this form
2. Why Lucas expects this to pass
3. Why the $10/million a year wouldn’t be better used for improved or free bus service. (connecting existing affordable housing with jobs)

[flyingember]

Can someone explain this affordable housing thing to me? I don’t exactly get:

1. Why this is needed in this form
2. Why Lucas expects this to pass
3. Why the $10/million a year wouldn’t be better used for improved or free bus service. (connecting existing affordable housing with jobs)

Firstly, part of it has passed out of committee. He has a good track record on his plans passing.

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politic ... 79424.html

Let's think about this in two parts. Start with the plan

proposed ordinance 180723
It says that developers need less parking only if they include affordable units.
This is good movement forward at least towards the city getting out of the mandatory parking business. Would like to see it go farther but it's something.


proposed ordinance 180923

Calling for submission to the qualified voters of Kansas City, Missouri, at the general election to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2019, the question of temporarily increasing the ad valorem tax levy for a period of ten years for municipal purposes by five hundredth cents ($.0500) per one hundred dollars ($100.00) assessed valuation on real and tangible personal property within the City; directing the City Clerk to notify the responsible election authorities of this election; enacting an affordable housing program upon voter approval; and recognizing an accelerated effective date.

The article claims it would do this below, but the ordinance says no such thing. But reading a different ordinance it appears this is part of the yet to be approve housing plan update so it might be fair.

. The money would be used preserve and construct housing, loan funds to residents to repair and weatherize their homes and redevelop vacant buildings, among other priorities.

So what about the money?

Mayor Pro Tem Scott Wagner, 1st District at-large, has recommended a property tax increase to fund affordability propgrams. Some council members would prefer raising sales taxes, an option they now have because the 3/8-cent sales tax Mayor Sly James proposed to fund pre-K failed last week.

Lucas said he would prefer to talk to the Central City Economic Development Sales Tax Board about using funds generated by an existing 1/8-cent sales tax before adding increasing property or sales taxes.

There's competing ideas on going for a new tax vs using the east side tax for this purpose. You can see differences in ideas on what part of town should benefit, a new tax could be used citywide.