The populations trends of KC have most the growth downtown and in the northland. My rough guess says the east side becomes one district and the northland has enough power to determine the winners of most at-large seats.
The next mayoral election is in 2019. the next redistricting will be in 2021. The next council will need to tackle this question.
Does the city move to only in district seats?
Should it do 12 seats or rethink the number, like have 14 or 16?
Should it mix it up where there's more district seats, like 9, and 3 at large?
Or is the current setup just fine?
Is there another way?
Redistricting KCMO council districts
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- Mark Twain Tower
- Posts: 9862
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Re: Redistricting KCMO council districts
I've be surprised if the Northland gets the majority of 3 council districts in the next census, or if the east side doesn't at least have 2. I'd be even more surprised if there any charter change to the current make-up of the city council.
It's pretty hard to say what growth trends will continue almost 25 years out, which is how far away the census after next is.
It's pretty hard to say what growth trends will continue almost 25 years out, which is how far away the census after next is.
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- Mark Twain Tower
- Posts: 9862
- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:54 am
Re: Redistricting KCMO council districts
Looks like 1.5 northland districts in 2020 is likely.
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- City Center Square
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Re: Redistricting KCMO council districts
"It's pretty hard to say what growth trends will continue almost 25 years out, which is how far away the census after next is."
So the next census after 2020 is in 2042? What about the one in 2030?
Anyway, the Northland may not compose three whole districts but will have two whole and part of a 3rd after the 2020 census. I think the major thing that will affect the redistricting efforts will be if Troost will still be the line between the 3rd and 4th districts.
So the next census after 2020 is in 2042? What about the one in 2030?
Anyway, the Northland may not compose three whole districts but will have two whole and part of a 3rd after the 2020 census. I think the major thing that will affect the redistricting efforts will be if Troost will still be the line between the 3rd and 4th districts.
Re: Redistricting KCMO council districts
Right. Meant almost 15 years. Mistyped.aknowledgeableperson wrote:"It's pretty hard to say what growth trends will continue almost 25 years out, which is how far away the census after next is."
So the next census after 2020 is in 2042? What about the one in 2030?
Anyway, the Northland may not compose three whole districts but will have two whole and part of a 3rd after the 2020 census. I think the major thing that will affect the redistricting efforts will be if Troost will still be the line between the 3rd and 4th districts.
And as long as we're all aboard the pedantry train, the Northland already has 2 districts and a part of a 3rd.
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- Mark Twain Tower
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- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:54 am
Re: Redistricting KCMO council districts
I would guess 2.2. It easily moves up to 2.5. Downtown is going to move up too from approx. 0.25 of a district to approx. 0.5
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- Mark Twain Tower
- Posts: 9862
- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:54 am
Re: Redistricting KCMO council districts
The census starts next year with council redistricting up the year after. Most council members will be able to run for re-election in 2023 under the new districts, so they'll all be looking at this.
Now is the time to start communicating with council members on what you think districts should look like.
Do you think it's time to break the Troost line?
Do you think the council should move to all in-district?
Do you think who does redistricting should change, like a citizens commission?
Do you think the process is fine and should stay the same?
The 2010 Census was ~459k. For 76k per district.
The estimates that are coming it looks like the city will be closer to 500k. For ~83k per district
I'll center my numbers on downtown for why this matters.
In 2010 the downtown population was ~22500, or about 29% of a council district. Today this could be as high as 29,000, or 34% of a new council district.
Clay County is estimated to have grown by 25,000 people. Let's assume 50% of this is inside the city limits. So that means the 1st would be up to 86,000 and needs to shed 5,500 people
Platte County has grown by about 13k. Let's assume 30% inside KC. So that's 4k. So there's room to absorb 3000 people there from the 2nd leaving about 2500 to move into the 4th.
So the 4th needs to shed people into other districts. And we haven't even looked at all the new apartments from midtown to the plaza.
The 4th will likely end up physically smaller and the northland holding more power in council elections. I would not be surprised to see the 3rd span from the river to Swope Park.
Now is the time to start communicating with council members on what you think districts should look like.
Do you think it's time to break the Troost line?
Do you think the council should move to all in-district?
Do you think who does redistricting should change, like a citizens commission?
Do you think the process is fine and should stay the same?
The 2010 Census was ~459k. For 76k per district.
The estimates that are coming it looks like the city will be closer to 500k. For ~83k per district
I'll center my numbers on downtown for why this matters.
In 2010 the downtown population was ~22500, or about 29% of a council district. Today this could be as high as 29,000, or 34% of a new council district.
Clay County is estimated to have grown by 25,000 people. Let's assume 50% of this is inside the city limits. So that means the 1st would be up to 86,000 and needs to shed 5,500 people
Platte County has grown by about 13k. Let's assume 30% inside KC. So that's 4k. So there's room to absorb 3000 people there from the 2nd leaving about 2500 to move into the 4th.
So the 4th needs to shed people into other districts. And we haven't even looked at all the new apartments from midtown to the plaza.
The 4th will likely end up physically smaller and the northland holding more power in council elections. I would not be surprised to see the 3rd span from the river to Swope Park.