http://www.kansascity.com/news/business ... 44837.htmlAbout seven times as many permits issued so far in 2016 have been for Kansas City in Platte and Clay counties than for Jackson and Cass counties — 2,915 vs. 426.
For the sake of discussion assume the south of the river units aren't just offsetting east side decreases. Let's say that with downtown growth any new units are a net increase for KC south of the river.
The current average people per home nationwide is 2.5 right now. Let's use this citywide for the sake of discussion.
That's a growth of 7287 people in the northland while south will grow by 1065. for a difference of 6222.
https://data.kcmo.org/Census/2010-Popul ... /6t27-u3xd
The current city council numbers are based off the 2010 census or 459590
A single city council district is around 76500 people (they stacked the northland by a few thousand less for growth allowance but that's likely been long skewed)
The current census estimate would put that at 79000. But just this year's growth, with zero growth 2010 to 2015, would mean the northland districts are avg 79500. And if we were to look at the 2010-15 growth I bet it skews towards the northland even more.
Now, we know that downtown is really offsetting east side population drop. So what does this mean?
The 4th district entirely fronts the northland today except for the arm into it. The 4th has also grown more than the average south of the river so it has to shrink in physical size. It has to cover less area of the city but this can't mean shrinking in the northland. Which way does it pull? Do you pull north and keep the Historic NE in the district and lose midtown? Do you cut the NE district and make it into a west of Troost and northland district?
The urban growth is great for the city, it's not great for the east side. It dilutes the power of the area by covering a larger geographical area each time they go to redistrict the east side. The only alternative I see is to finally give up on E vs W and bust the Troost line the length of the city. No more weird arms that try to split the city up so east vs west has equal power, it's not going to work moving forward without dramatic population increases that didn't happen on the east side.
What can the east side do? Work to kill the at large districts. If they end up with 2.5 seats worth of votes they'll have a hard time picking at large winners. Having more smaller districts would be in their interest.
This also pushes downtown's northland issue off for longer. The northland can have ~5 districts instead of 2.5. So you don't end up with a district serving Briarcliff all the way to the Plaza with split interests