KC metro growth and migration stats

KC topics that don't fit anywhere else.
earthling
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:57 pm

The 2015 migration data is out from TAMU...

KC 2015 domestic in-migration slowed down a bit from 2014. Not growing as fast as 90's and mid-2000s.
STL outmigration is higher than international inmigration.
MSP has highest domestic outmigration ever but offset by high international inmigration.
Chicago/STL and rust belt cities have significant domestic outmigration, not enough international inmigration to offset.
Indy and Columbus benefiting from maybe from surrounding cities not doing well, and helps that they are capital cities.

Image

Source for all metros:
https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/WebDat ... p_full.zip


Here is migration for counties of interest... Jackson county still losing domestic but improving, used to be much much higher losses. International inmigration is offsetting domestic loss.
Image

Source for all counties:
https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/WebDat ... p_full.zip

earthling
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Tue Apr 12, 2016 2:18 pm

Do the images now appear in previous post for others?

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grovester
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by grovester » Tue Apr 12, 2016 3:35 pm

Yes

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warwickland
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by warwickland » Tue Apr 12, 2016 3:54 pm

my assumption is that there is a huge number of babyboomers retiring around the twin cities and taking off for warmer climates that is pushing that number up, but i don't know.

i also don't "get" indianapolis. it's an overgrown railroad junction between cincinnati and chicago with central illinois weather and pretty weak-sauce public amenities and neighborhoods. give me next door louisville (or cincinnati) any day. louisville just feels that much more lush, temperate (nestled in the ohio river valley) and historic with an olmsted park system and brick architecture.

earthling
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Wed Apr 13, 2016 12:07 pm

Have read about baby boomer exodus explanation for MSP, makes sense. Biz Journal talked about KC having that problem too a couple years ago but not to same degree.

Indy gets a lot of Chicago transplants for some reason and Indy does have decent job growth, better than KC. Though KC better with white collar job growth.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Wed Apr 13, 2016 12:10 pm


JBmidtown
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by JBmidtown » Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:35 pm

When is the 2016 migration report coming out?

earthling
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Thu Feb 23, 2017 7:15 am

Last year the TAMU results came out in April, so...

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by JBmidtown » Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:06 am

earthling wrote:Last year the TAMU results came out in April, so...
I wasn't sure if that was a consistent release date.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:55 am

This info from rankings thread is better for this thread...
Critical_Mass wrote:2016 census estimates were released a couple days ago, as of July 1, 2016:

Kansas City, MO-KS Metro Area = 2,104,509 (+20,045 since 7/1/2015, +95,167 since 2010 census)
Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS CSA = 2,446,396 (+21,467 since 7/1/2015, +103,388 since 2010 census)
Jackson County = 691,801 (+5,428 since 7/1/2015, +17,643 since 2010 census)
Johnson County = 584,451 (+5,693 since 7/1/2015, +40,272 since 2010 census)
Clay County = 239,085 (+3,614 since 7/1/2015, +17,146 since 2010 census)
Wyandotte County = 163,831 (+736 since 7/1/2015, +6,326 since 2010 census)
Cass County = 102,845 (+1,349 since 7/1/2015, +3,367 since 2010 census)
Platte County = 98,309 (+2,092 since 7/1/2015, +8,987 since 2010 census)
MO side = 1,233,501 (+12,385 since 7/1/2015, +44,513 since 2010 census)
KS side = 871,008 (+7,660 since 7/1/2015, +50,654 since 2010 census)

and on the other side of MO:
St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area = 2,807,002 (-1,328 since 7/1/2015, +19,301 since 2010 census)
St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL CSA = 2,911,769 (-1,385 since 7/1/2015, +19,272 since 2010 census)
St. Louis County = 998,581 (-3,124 since 7/1/2015, -373 since 2010 census)
St. Charles County = 390,918 (+5,747 since 7/1/2015, +30,433 since 2010 census)
St. Louis City = 311,404 (-3,471 since 7/1/2015, -7,890 since 2010 census)
Madison County = 265,759 (-312 since 7/1/2015, -3,523 since 2010 census)
St. Clair County = 262,759 (-1,320 since 7/1/2015, -7,297 since 2010 census)
Jefferson County = 224,226 (+318 since 7/1/2015, +5,493 since 2010 census)
Franklin County = 102,838 (+456 since 7/1/2015, +1,346 since 2010 census)
MO side = 2,117,036 (+775 since 7/1/2015, +32,999 since 2010 census)
IL side = 689,966 (-2,103 since 7/1/2015, -13,698 since 2010 census)

county data can be found here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2016 ... total.html
A net growth of 20K for KC metro for the year is more inline with KC's hotter years but not quite at 22K+ level of some years. The last several years have averaged about 16K/yr so improving. Looks like MO side of KC is picking up more recently while KS side recently not on par with past. Maybe KS will pick back up with moderates if Brownback gets UN post.

Sad to see that STL metro actually shows a lost for the year. STL city and county show losses at times but this is the first I think for whole metro to show a loss for one year. Ferguson effect?


Here's the Wiki list of all metros with 2016 update. KC metro still ranked 30, passed up by Vegas but KC passed Cleveland. Austin catching up to KC very quickly. Cincy is only metro KC has a shot at to pass up and may take a while. St. Joe and Topeka show slight losses since 2010, Lawrence has nice gain..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_M ... ical_Areas

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by Critical_Mass » Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:29 pm

KC metro compared to other regional and/or peer metros:

Lincoln, NE Metro Area = 326,921 (+4,094 since 7/1/2015, +24,764 since 2010 census)
Springfield, MO Metro Area = 458,930 (+2,602 since 7/1/2015, +22,218 since 2010 census)
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA Metro Area = 634,725 (+12,145 since 7/1/2015, +65,092 since 2010 census)
Wichita, KS Metro Area = 644,672 (+1,656 since 7/1/2015, +13,753 since 2010 census)
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA Metro Area = 924,129 (+9,861 since 7/1/2015, +58,779 since 2010 census)
Tulsa, OK Metro Area = 987,201 (+6,742 since 7/1/2015, +49,723 since 2010 census)
Memphis, TN-MS-AR Metro Area = 1,342,842 (+888 since 7/1/2015, +18,013 since 2010 census)
Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area = 1,373,211 (+16,246 since 7/1/2015, +120,224 since 2010 census)
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN Metro Area = 1,865,298 (+36,337 since 7/1/2015, +194,408 since 2010 census)
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN Metro Area = 2,004,230 (+17,688 since 7/1/2015, +116,353 since 2010 census)
Austin-Round Rock, TX Metro Area = 2,056,405 (+58,301 since 7/1/2015, +340,116 since 2010 census)
Kansas City, MO-KS Metro Area = 2,104,509 (+20,045 since 7/1/2015, +95,167 since 2010 census)
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area = 2,165,139 (+9,747 since 7/1/2015, +50,559 since 2010 census)
St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area = 2,807,002 (-1,328 since 7/1/2015, +19,301 since 2010 census)
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO Metro Area = 2,853,077 (+44,261 since 7/1/2015, +309,595 since 2010 census)

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2016 ... areas.html

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by kcjak » Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:37 pm

What is Des Moines doing recently that has really bumped up their economy and population increase? They have the highest population growth rate in the Midwest at 1.95%, which is comparable to Nashville (1.99%) and more than double KC (.96%) over the past year.

It FEELS like KC is growing pretty significantly, but Omaha, Des Moines, MSP, Tulsa and even Little Rock all have higher growth rates than KC since the 2010 census. I keep waiting to see a bump from the technology and warehousing sectors but it's always just a steady increase.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by mean » Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:07 pm

I suspect that being the largest city in and particularly the capital of Iowa are factors. It could be a coincidence, but it seems like a lot of the "hot" cities are state capitals.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by aknowledgeableperson » Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:11 am

"What is Des Moines doing recently that has really bumped up their economy and population increase?"

My son lives on the west side of the Des Moines area. When up there I am amazed at the amount of building that is going on in that area of town. Iowa St is north of Des Moines and Drake is in town. Insurance companies have a major presence in the area. Financial services are also big in the area along with publishing. It is home to 2 Fortune 500 companies.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by KCTOGA » Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:08 am

aknowledgeableperson wrote:"What is Des Moines doing recently that has really bumped up their economy and population increase?"

My son lives on the west side of the Des Moines area. When up there I am amazed at the amount of building that is going on in that area of town. Iowa St is north of Des Moines and Drake is in town. Insurance companies have a major presence in the area. Financial services are also big in the area along with publishing. It is home to 2 Fortune 500 companies.
Casey's general store, I believe, is HQ there. Should this be where we are attempting to use our EDC?

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by mykn » Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:09 am

My wife and I were there a few months ago and we were really impressed with Des Moines. A LOT of construction and a neat downtown, although it felt very different than KC. I loved that their river was actually a part of the city and not just ignored and hidden away. Only thing I didn't like was the early morning smell of the cattle processing plant or whatever it was, ugh.

earthling
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:47 pm

Found 2016 migration stats here for all metros...
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

KC metro had a decent (for KC) jump in net domestic migration last year of about 6600, the most since late 90s. International migration down to about 3300 compared to about 4300 year before.

Here's history of KC migration according to TAMU...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... y%2C_MO-KS

St. Louis metro had its biggest domestic loss ever since tracked, 11.5K in 2016 compared to 7K-10K lost per year last several years.
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... s%2C_MO-IL

Analyzing migration stats gives better indication of real metro growth from the outside as population stats include birth rate, which is of course population increase but not as much of an immediate economic growth indicator as migration stats.

earthling
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:20 pm

Ran across metro to metro migration stats from 2010-2014. Curious KC had a net gain from Denver but a net loss to St. Joe.

This shows top inflow metros, number of people who moved to KC metro from following metros, 2010-2014...
3,849 Lawrence, KS Metro Area
3,336 Asia
3,164 St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area
2,301 Springfield, MO Metro Area
1,860 St. Joseph, MO-KS Metro Area
1,849 Wichita, KS Metro Area
1,701 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area
1,619 Topeka, KS Metro Area
1,456 Europe
1,423 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metro Area
1,402 Columbia, MO Metro Area
1,259 Central America
1,178 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area
1,093 Manhattan, KS Metro Area
1,077 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metro Area
1,068 Africa
1,057 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO Metro Area
1,033 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area
1,001 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metro Area
985 Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA Metro Area
691 Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area
673 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area
642 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metro Area
631 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area
571 Joplin, MO Metro Area
517 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area
479 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV Metro Area

This shows top outflow metros, number of KC people who moved to these metros, 2010-2014...
3,569 Lawrence, KS Metro Area
2,936 St. Joseph, MO-KS Metro Area
2,669 St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area
2,583 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area
2,012 Springfield, MO Metro Area
1,845 Wichita, KS Metro Area
1,808 Columbia, MO Metro Area
1,759 Manhattan, KS Metro Area
1,476 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metro Area
1,437 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metro Area
1,202 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area
1,056 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metro Area
980 Topeka, KS Metro Area
895 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO Metro Area
894 Jefferson City, MO Metro Area
815 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metro Area
789 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area
721 Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO Metro Area
660 Joplin, MO Metro Area
659 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area
642 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metro Area
635 Colorado Springs, CO Metro Area
611 Tulsa, OK Metro Area
594 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area
576 Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA Metro Area

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2014 ... ation.html

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Thu Apr 27, 2017 6:56 am

TAMU has updated metro migration history with 2016 stats.

KC's domestic migration in 2016 was the highest since 1997, which had over 6600 net in-migration though birthrate shows lower than late last decade. As posted earlier in thread KC gained about 20K overall in 2016, which isn't 'hot market' territory or even a KC best but much better than last several years...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... y%2C_MO-KS

STL had its biggest recorded domestic loss according to TAMU (over 11K loss), more than Cleveland. And first metro wide overall loss since 1982, about 1300 loss...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... s%2C_MO-IL

Indianapolis had a 17K overall gain...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... rson%2C_IN

Columbus outpaced KC a bit with 21K net gain in 2016, primarily due to international migration (large college)...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... mbus%2C_OH

Cincy had about a 10K net gain...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... C_OH-KY-IN

Cleveland still in a downward spiral losing over 4K overall...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... yria%2C_OH

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by miz.jordan17 » Fri May 26, 2017 8:49 am

2016 city population estimates are out!

KC is estimated to have gained a little over 6550 residents since 2015, putting the population over 481,000 people.
http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/in ... 5230902728

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