KC metro growth and migration stats

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earthling
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Fri May 26, 2017 9:43 am

miz.jordan17 wrote:2016 city population estimates are out!

KC is estimated to have gained a little over 6550 residents since 2015, putting the population over 481,000 people.
http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/in ... 5230902728
And Jackson County showed its first domestic net migration gain in 2016 since tracking in the 90s. No longer relying on birthrate for population growth.
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... son_County

JoCo overall growth has slowed significantly since last decade, now not much higher than Jackson County...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... son_County

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by miz.jordan17 » Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:23 am

Is it likely that Kansas City (and it's metro) will ever grow to become the size of Denver or Seattle?

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:40 am

At some point KC area should hit over 3M. KC doesn't have enough momentum in enough areas to get to there within a decade, would have to really pickup. KC needs to just keep up as it is, Charlotte passed KC, Austin is about to pass KC, Columbus/Indy could potentially and even Nashville. KC has good enough steady growth but will need something to really stand out to pickup pace faster. The MO side is improving but seems KS politics has hurt KS side momentum. Need to get both sides of state line in full swing - both sides need to help each other, not compete with each other.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by joshmv » Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:04 pm

miz.jordan17 wrote:Is it likely that Kansas City (and it's metro) will ever grow to become the size of Denver or Seattle?
Will KC grow to the population of what Denver or Seattle have currently, or will KC actually catch up to them in real time?

Denver metro has 2.8M, and Seattle has 3.8M, while KC is around 2.1M (depending on which statistical area you're looking at). I don't see any reason to think KC won't eventually grow to meet both of those numbers in the distant future.

If you're asking if KC will ever catch up to them in real time, it's unlikely unless you're talking about an indefinite timeline. At that point we'd be getting into all sorts of issues like earthquakes (Seattle), weather patterns, water shortages(Denver), solar radiation(Denver), risks from intercontinental missiles, and I'm sure many other factors.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by KCtoBrooklyn » Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:38 pm

The estimate for the KC Metro population growth rate for last year was 1%. At that rate, it will take about 29 years to reach Denver's current population of 2.8M and about 60 years to reach Seattle at 3.8M.

However, that doesn't figure in Lawrence and St. Joe being added to KC's MSA, which will probably happen in that time frame and would likely cut down on the time by a good amount.

I can't find the history of growth rates for KC right now, but I seem to remember seeing before, and I believe there were times in the recent past (the 90s) where KC was averaging growth around 1.5%. I think that is a realistic and attainable goal for KC. At that rate, we would reach 2.8M in about 19 years and 3.8M in 40 years.

If KC were to (relatively) boom and grow at 2% annually, it could reach 2.8M in 15 years and 3.8M in 30.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:19 pm

^Good analysis. You can find more details of KC growth rates here...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... y%2C_MO-KS

At best KC had annual growth rate below 1.5% and largest single year raw growth rate of 26K in one year (2001), though typically 15K-22K/yr. So would have to significantly pickup to hit 3M sooner than later. Nashville has been growing 30K-36K/yr lately and picking up steam. Austin has been growing at nearly 60K/yr recently with some years in past higher. Would prefer to see KC grow at 30K/yr or so pace (infill, not more sprawl), 50K-60K can become easily out of control. But KC doesn't really have anything standing out yet to hit 30K/yr.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by KCtoBrooklyn » Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:35 pm

The 2017 MSA population estimates are out. KC had a pretty good year with a projected growth 22,530 for a rate of 1.1%. The growth rate has been trending upwards from 1% in 2016 and .8% in 2013-2015. It looks like it was a good year for domestic migration with a net of 8,531.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:12 pm

Link with migration? I found this but not showing migrations...
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

Domestic net migration over 8500 would be the most KC has seen since '97, highest overall otherwise. Not hot market territory but good for KC. KC needs to get to 20K net migration though just to keep up with Nashville growth. Some may not want that, preferring KC's moderate above average growth. KC barely edged over Austin but for 2018 they're likely already passing up KC.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by KCtoBrooklyn » Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:13 pm


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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:19 am

TAMU has updated the metro migration trend list with 2017 stats.

KC had 22K growth with over 12K net inmigration...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... y%2C_MO-KS

Columbus did better, helps having major university and nearby struggling rust belt that migrate there...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... mbus%2C_OH

MSP had lower domestic inmigration than KC but booming with international inmigration...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... n%2C_MN-WI

STL still major outmigration in 2017 but a tad better than 2016...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... s%2C_MO-IL

Lawrence hits 120K...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... ence%2C_KS

St. Joe flat but better than decline a few years ago, at about 127K...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... h%2C_MO-KS

Topeka slightly improves after a few years of mild losses, 233K...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... peka%2C_KS

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by flyingember » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:19 am

I looked at Clay, Platte, Jackson, Cass, Johnson, Wyandotte using data from the same size
From 2002 to 2017 (15 years)
For this purpose, pre-recession is through 2007

The average growth rate of the six counties over 15 years has been 0.97%
Not one county has had negative growth.

Johnson peaked in 2002 and is now the third fastest behind Clay and Platte. JoCo's growth is dropping dramatically.
The big winner of the past 15 years in terms of raw growth is Wyandotte County
The current hot spot is Clay and Platte.

Percent growth rates
Pre recession (2002-2007) - Post recession (2008-2017) - Last 5 (2012-2017)
Johnson 2.06% - 1.22% - 1.11%
Wyandotte -0.44% - 0.60% - 0.72%
Cass 2.3% - 0.69% - 0.65%
Clay 1.96% - 1.41% - 1.31%
Platte 1.98% - 1.72% - 1.90%
Jackson 0.15% - 0.53% - 0.63%

As far as population change trends, comparing the last 5 years to the entire 15 years
Johnson saw domestic births go from 49% of growth to 57% and international migration into the county is up to 19% of growth from 13%
So the county used to have more US-based movement than it does today. It's more reliant on immigrants and birth levels.

Wyandotte has consistently been birth and international migration based. Domestic migration is still a negative every year. So more locals are moving out of the county than are moving in.

Clay and Platte are much like Cass where local movement is it's growth, but growth is up unlike Cass. This tells us people are moving to the north side of the metro instead of south on the Missouri side

Jackson is the big winner in movement trends. It has mostly maintained it's internal birth gains but has reversed a dramatic domestic movement outward. The 15 year period is -35,000 people while the past 5 is up 1400 on average

This could show us that putting efforts towards the north in areas like density, transit and such will have a larger impact than looking into Kansas.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by kboish » Thu May 24, 2018 11:20 am

The census estimates for 2016-2017 growth were compiled by MARC. They show that KCMO added nearly as many people as the next 5 cities in the area combined.

KCMO 6,825
OP 2,411
Olathe 1,871
LS 1,156
Liberty 878
KCK 779

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by kboish » Thu May 24, 2018 11:38 am

Here is the link to estimates for all cities.

Here are a couple of other cities' estimates:

-4500 StL
+9844 Denver
+6311 Portland
+4485 OKC
+1660 Omaha
+475 Wichita
-2610 Pittsburgh
+2174 Cinci
+939 Des Moines

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by kboish » Thu May 24, 2018 2:41 pm

According to zip code data, estimates show DT saw increase of 2500 people over the past year and Midtown-Plaza saw increase of 1300 people.

Same data also shows DT and Midtown rebounding from job losses over previous years.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling » Thu May 24, 2018 3:11 pm

Does anyone have recent downtown Loop population estimate? Or RM, Loop, Xroads total? Seems the only number regularly mentioned is 'greater' downtown, which is a large area.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by FangKC » Thu May 24, 2018 5:42 pm

If the population growth continues at that pace, it appears that KCMO will surpass its' population high of 507,000 (from 1970) in about 4 years.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by brewcrew1000 » Thu May 24, 2018 8:02 pm

FangKC wrote:If the population growth continues at that pace, it appears that KCMO will surpass its' population high of 507,000 (from 1970) in about 4 years.
Haven't the city limits greatly expanded since 1970

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by flyingember » Thu May 24, 2018 10:00 pm

brewcrew1000 wrote:
FangKC wrote:If the population growth continues at that pace, it appears that KCMO will surpass its' population high of 507,000 (from 1970) in about 4 years.
Haven't the city limits greatly expanded since 1970
Nope.

The last major annexation was 1963, south of Longview Rd. It didnt reach south of 85th until 58.
The city didn’t touch Raytown until 57 and then swung south and east around Raytown in 61
The bulk of the northland was 59 and 62

Making the most recent major annexation south of the river, which I didn’t notice before

People complain about the northland but Martin City is right there with it in the same annexations as encouraging sprawl, and it’s actually further away from downtown than most northland development. Have to go just north of Liberty or around the airport to reach the same distance away. Did not notice that before either

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by KCtoBrooklyn » Sat May 26, 2018 11:16 am

kboish wrote:Here is the link to estimates for all cities.
It is also good to see that the growth in KC has been ramping up (although a bit of a plateau in 2017):

2012: 2,369
2013: 2,784
2014: 3,569
2015: 4,369
2016: 6,808
2017: 6,825

This increase correlates with an increase in overall growth in the metro and an increase in domestic migration. KC is growing at 1.4%, faster than the metro as a whole, which is around 1%.

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