2015 KC general election

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flyingember
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2015 KC general election

Post by flyingember » Wed Apr 08, 2015 10:13 am

Looking at the 2015 KC primary-

Citywide races the spread has 70% as many people voting for a 5th at large position as the mayor
5A: 23186
6A: 25502
1A: 27939
3A: 28338
2A: 28599
4A: 30528
Mayor: 32959

The northland was 39% of the vote. These are the only people to receive a greater percentage of their vote from the northland compared to the relative turnout. These are the candidates that were liked by the northland more than as a percentage of the vote. One of these people is out and Gordon is unlikely to win.

Mayor-
Lee
Chastain

3A-
Gordon

4A-
Stadler

Looking at individuals districts south of the river had much better turnout (districts being roughly equal population).

1: 4435
2: 3669
3: 4805
4: 5270
5: 6230
6: 7143
=31552 (more than voted in any council at large race, less than the mayor)

Here's a big deal item from these numbers.
-If everyone who voted for mayor voted in every at large election we might have seen different results in second place 3rd at large.
-If the northland turnout had been just 10% higher Wright might have won in the 1st district
-The 3rd district results easily could have had a different 2nd place finisher with just 1000 more voters, like if 3rd had the turnout of 5th to the south

2nd at large: Hodges is slightly more popular in the northland but not enough to win without a collapse south of the river.

3rd at large: Lucas got 47% of the total vote. The three who didn't win combined received more votes than the second place finisher with 38% of the vote. The third place winner at 12% actually quit the election two weeks ago. She endorsed Lucas already. It would take Jackson County voters moving en mass to Gordon to give him the win. Gordon was the least popular candidate in Jackson County for any race.

4th at large:
Stadler was the second least popular council candidate in Jackson of any citywide race. His best result was 9.7% of the Clay Co vote.
The worst northland result was Shields, she got 75% of her vote in Jackson
Where the Campbell and Stadler vote goes determines this race.

5th at large:
The Ruiz and write-in votes are still not enough to give Dennis Anthony enough votes to get even halfway to Lee Barnes' number. It would take a Barnes collapse to change anything.

1st: huge tossup. If Wright voters show up to vote and who they vote for will determine the outcome of this race. My inclination is to say Hall will win.

3rd: the sum of every other candidate is still less than Reed.

5th: the two top candidates are close and the other candidates got 25% of the vote total.

here's my guess
1: Hall
2: Fowler
3: Reed
4: Justus
5: tossup.
6: NcManus

1A: Wagner.
2A: Loar.
3A: Lucas.
4A: tossup.
5A: Barnes.
6A: Taylor

I'm guessing the council ends up 25% incumbent. Glover, Taylor, Reed





++++++++++++++++++++++++
Now onto my favorite anti-endorsement. The anti-streetcar group didn't endorse in two races.
At most the endorsements by Smart KC will get 25% of the council and it's clear their endorsements had no effect otherwise the clear anti-streetcar candidates would have done stronger than last place, barely 2nd and such.

They're at 2 of 10. One clearly against, one they say is for busses.
One tossup race to go that they don't explicitly say is anti-streetcar so it's an unknown
Three are already out. Two were vocally against the train
Their two write-in pushes didn't get close
The other three are distant from the leader and unlikely to win.


3: Kendrix (out)
4: no one
5: Bell (out)
6: Nash (In, 17% of vote)

1A: Roberts (In, 25% of vote)
2A: Loar. (will win)
3A: Gordon/Coleman (Gordon in, 13% of vote)
4A: Stadler (out)
5A: Barnes. (will win)
6A: no one

mykn
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by mykn » Wed Apr 08, 2015 12:51 pm

What's your take on the potential makeup of the new city council? Would they be favorable to the mayor? To streetcar extension (more or less so than the current city council)?

flyingember
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by flyingember » Wed Apr 08, 2015 2:30 pm

I'm going to guess the council (with mayor's vote) will be somewhere from 10-3 to 7-6 for rail. A few people clearly against the line will be elected in but too many people just don't give a clear position. It looks like it comes down to 1st and 5th district results

1: Hall vs Davis-- Hall has Dan Coffey listed on her advisory committee. count her as a skeptic at best and likely a No
2: Fowler- he hedges his bets with "better access to multiple forms of transportation."
3: Reed is a fair skeptic but usually votes yes
4: Justus. would be surprised if is against rail. used Amtrak to get to Jeff City.
5: Canady vs Bacchus-- Canady wants "reliable public transportation" -- Bacchus has been chairman of the pro-rail Regional Transit Alliance.
6: NcManus- website mentions roads. nothing about transit period

1A: Wagner- not worried
2A: Loar- she was on the committee that oversaw the $200mm KCI renovation and the P&L committee. is a claimed opponent of rail
3A: Lucas. claimed mayor's ally
4A: Glover votes for it, Shields is a known rail supporter for decades
5A: Barnes- claimed opponent. Is currently on PIEA board
6A: Taylor

chingon
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by chingon » Fri Apr 10, 2015 1:52 am

No one seeking another term in city office or with auspicions of being the next mayor will support streetcar expansion, except 4th district candidates and legit idealogical supporters (who are not as many as recent council votes would suggest).

There is no way forward except a midtown/plaza TDD and patience. The mayor's baubling of the last streetcar election was a real setback.

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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by aknowledgeableperson » Fri Apr 10, 2015 8:46 am

Getting citywide support for something seen as benefiting such a small area and/or as something not needed is a tough sell. Especially if the item is low on a priority list, if it is even on it at all. And as the city's population grows more in the northland that much needed support and priority will get even harder to achieve.

flyingember
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by flyingember » Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:51 pm

Even the best east side benefits are hard to sell during an election

Come in and do sewers, roads and sidewalks laterally along the line at the same time as rail and who will focus on that?

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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by DaveKCMO » Fri Apr 10, 2015 11:31 pm

primary babbling is not the best predictor of actual council votes.

aknowledgeableperson
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by aknowledgeableperson » Fri Apr 10, 2015 11:49 pm

True, time moves on and opinions change. The reality though is the KCMO voter as a whole finds it hard to swallow the sales pitch for a streetcar expansion. And those on the council realize that. The downtown streetcar system passed because the yes votes were cherry-picked to include those who supported a previous plan and excluded for the most part those who would have voted no. Nothing wrong with that, it was a smart move.
The last streetcar election was too soon. The current approved system needs to be up and running, showing people it does work. That will be the best sales pitch any future election will have. And have the election for an area that shows support for it instead of areas that aren't showing an interest.

flyingember
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by flyingember » Thu May 07, 2015 1:11 pm

From KC light rail, the downtown PAC endorsements

Downtown PAC endorses James, Davis, Wagner, Fowler, Loar, Reed, Lucas, Justus, Glover, Barnes, McManus & Taylor for KCMO June 23 election.
https://twitter.com/kclightrail/status/ ... 6079102976

interestingly this is supposed to be the pro-streetcar group but the anti-streetcar group wants two of these people elected.

Shows how picking someone based on a single item is just a bad idea

chingon
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by chingon » Thu May 07, 2015 3:40 pm

There are also candidates on that list who do not really support streetcar expansion or are at best lukewarm about it, and ones who aren't on the list who do support expansion.

flyingember
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by flyingember » Fri Jun 12, 2015 4:16 pm

I just got a mailing from Heather Hall, 1st in district candidate

Why that's worth mentioning? I live in the 4th District.

Oops.

flyingember
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by flyingember » Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:36 pm

Amazing. Glover loses by 0.3% of the vote

110 vote difference. The northland not voting at the same percentage as south of the river handed Shields a win.

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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by pash » Tue Jun 23, 2015 11:09 pm

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Last edited by pash on Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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normalthings
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by normalthings » Tue Jun 23, 2015 11:23 pm

flyingember wrote:I just got a mailing from Heather Hall, 1st in district candidate

Why that's worth mentioning? I live in the 4th District.

Oops.

Parkville resident here, received some mailing last week for KC City Council.

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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by pash » Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:02 pm

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JBmidtown
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by JBmidtown » Wed Jun 24, 2015 5:29 pm

Shitty times ahead

chingon
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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by chingon » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:33 pm

I am interested in volunteering to work on a TDD for midtown/plaza in any capacity I can. Feel free to pm me if anyone knows who to contact to begin helping.

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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by flyingember » Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:42 am

Glover is the one person I'm not really surprised got voted out. He clearly had a bad attitude. If he treated other people like he treated me in person, and that was him starting to listen to me, and then right in the middle of me explaining my problem turning and walking away, it's no surprise people didn't vote for him.

Marcason, at the same meeting as that incident, listened and got me the info to get in touch with her assistant. Her assistant was very helpful and solved my problem.

With these small numbers, all it takes is a few people unhappy with someone turning out who otherwise might not vote to change the result.

There were 26276 voters south of the river. *no one* voted for everyone. Behind the mayor the Glover-Shields race had the most voters
In Clay county, 6401. Glover-Shields was #2 there
Platte county, 2234. Glover-Shields was #3 in votes behind Loar-Hodges and the mayor. Both were noticably higher than the at large votes cast for the other districts.

And let's look at percent

In Clay Glover got the worst yes vote result in the county with 53% yes. The mayor got 81% yes with 518 people not even casting a vote for Glover or Shields.
In Platte he got 59%, coming in fourth for popularity in this county.
South of the river Glover was the least popular by such a wide margin that #5 for at large popularity was 10% higher, the largest spread of any part of the city.

Related, Platte Co, where Loar will mostly represent, voted the least for her of any county on a percentage basis.

So the race of the night was Glover-Shields and it showed in the result.

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Re: 2015 KC general election

Post by flyingember » Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:14 pm

Post recount Glover loses by 173, not 110.

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