KC metro JOBS (general KC economy thread)

[earthling]

Yeah, the data above already clarifies (other sources too) that MO side has about 55% of metro jobs. I haven't found a specific source that shows KCMO has near 50% of metro jobs but many indicators indirectly imply it. There are obvious problems with KCMO being large in area but it also has some benefits, especially being long and somewhat narrow. Would be curious to see % of metro suburban population that are within 10 miles of KCMO limits compared to other primary cities of a metro.

But WTF happened to KS side over last year, especially with all the corporate welfare they have been handing out. I'd be very pissed if a KS resident as tax payers are funding companies to move to KS yet no significant net gain in jobs.

[aknowledgeableperson]

What would be interesting in those job reports would be how many of those jobs are full time and how many are part time. Plus maybe something like average wage.

[earthling]

I haven't found recent wage data per side on monthly basis (there is 2012 GMP annual, and MO side is larger than KS side), but here is a sample of some white collar leaning employment for MO side and KS side over last few years, which tend to be full time and relatively higher wage.

KS side was doing much better a couple years ago but somehow bombed out in 2013. It's not just Dec data, Nov data shows slowing trend for KS but Dec is even worse, basically a loss or flat in most categories.

Maybe it's a teeter totter effect of KS stealing MO jobs a couple years ago then MO grabbing some back.

Professional Services employment on MO side of metro...


Professional Services employment on KS side of metro...


Science/Tech employment on MO side...


Science/Tech employment on KS side...


Finance employment on MO side of metro...


Finance employment on KS side of metro...


Here is Leisure/Hospitality employment, which tend to be mostly part time retail/restaurant/entertainment/hotel employment...

MO side


KS side


Two areas where KS side did better were Health related jobs and Information (telcom), but not enough to offset other losses and Sprint is about to do another round of layoffs.

It's preliminary Dec data so could be adjusted, however Nov also shows MO gaining much more than KS. I've been following BLS data for over 10 years and something is odd about KS side losing when everywhere else is gaining at least to some degree. If it is directionally correct, then maybe the Star should investigate what is going on with KS, especially in context to the border war. Jan data will be interesting as it is based on W2 forms generated and also tends to be the lowest employed month of the year (least seasonal jobs). We probably won't see Jan data until late March, it takes longer to compile/release.

[shinatoo]

Is there any analysis of the loss of total jobs compared to the retirement rate? I read that since 2011 there are, on average, 10,000 people turning 65 every day.

[earthling]

Yeah, job openings are increasing partly because there is an employment base loss from higher rate of those retiring than past. Job openings are up, but labor force shrinks. This can be good for those looking but of course they need the experience in areas that might be hard to fill. That likely doesn't explain why MO side is increasing employment but KS side is not.

I don't know of any KC specific study but the KC labor force has been flat last several years, partly because of major job losses a few years ago but also part of it could be retiring workforce. (In comparison, STL workforce has been falling and is now below 10 years ago). The Midwest in general has retiring not only leaving workforce at faster rate than past but also leaving for warmer cities at faster rate than past and KC may not show the population growth rate it did in the 80s/90s even if the jobs increase.

Simplyhired still shows many thousands of job openings in KC. The challenge is filling them with qualified people and getting people to move here when all cities are trying to fill jobs while losing retiring workforce.

http://www.simplyhired.com/l-kansas-city-mo-jobs.html

[flyingember]

Is there any analysis of the loss of total jobs compared to the retirement rate? I read that since 2011 there are, on average, 10,000 people turning 65 every day.

interesting idea. to make my figuring short

these are the under 18 numbers for each county

Johnson Wyandotte Jackson Clay Platte Cass
165635 44435 143355 57265 21995 26385

these are the numbers that will retire over the next 15-20 years. No one comes close to replacement numbers for the baby boomer generation
Johnson Wyandotte Jackson Clay Platte Cass
223370 57300 263105 89852 38755 39910

this is what each county is short in terms of people compared to current numbers and the percent that don't have replacement workers. If my hunch is right, Jackson County/Clay/Platte is going to become hugely competitive jobs center with higher wages, drawing workers from Kansas. This is the kind of thing that causes migrations. Notice Cerner's timeframe to add 15,000 jobs. from their standpoint they made a stupid decision
Johnson Wyandotte Jackson Clay Platte Cass
57735 12865 119750 32587 16760 13525
26% 22% 46% 36% 43% 34%


the wildcard is downtown and old core residential (Mission, Gladstone, Raytown). what it does to population numbers and jobs numbers will define what KC looks like in 2030 and beyond
but if KC can get more of today's JoCo workers to locate in Clay County is just as important as downtown growth. because KC is about to have a population freefall in true population and workers. KC is the largest cities in Jackson, Clay and Platte and is the major jobs center for the rest of those counties

another key aspect is to be the place for retirement homes. for the next 35 years this will be a growth industry in the region. the same urban trends is key. will people retire in the urban core or the suburbs will drive where many jobs locate. gentrifying downtown with a senior living component is something to encourage

rail transit really is the most important thing KC is doing today. combine that with less interest in driving and JoCo isn't looking so good. you could say that johnson county would be an easy place to draw workers to as they would have an excess of jobs, until you add the commuter part of it

[earthling]

^And cold weather metros that aren't hot media darling markets could be the ones that get hit hardest.

Was looking at labor force trends for various metros over last few years:

Shrinking:
Detroit, Cincy, Cleveland, STL (below 10 years ago)

Steady last few years:
KC (stopped growing around 2009), Chicago, Columbus, Milwaukee, Philly

Were steady last few years, growing slightly in last year, but not on par with warm winter cities:
MSP, Indy, Denver, Boston, NYC

Growing non-stop:
Most non-cold-winter major cities, though some are not significant anymore like ATL, Orlando and Portland. DC area is non-stop growth, despite cold winters.

Wonder how much is due to retirement leaving workforce. The jobs are out there, but many not able to fill them.

http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm

[aknowledgeableperson]

Wasn't paying too much attention to the news report but I think the summary was that the last national jobs report wasn't that good even though the jobless percentage was down it was due more to people retiring or leaving the work force instead of job growth.

[earthling]

Not a big fan using 'unemployment rate' as a measure of economy as it's based on relationship to labor force, which is very tricky to determine and has too many variables to be reliable (like retirement impact, very low polling rate and how to define who is seeking a job). The methodology used to determine raw employment is more reliable and those trends are more meaningful methinks so that is what I have been posting.

KC was showing at one point last year a gain of 12K actual employed compared to previous year but by Dec, it dropped to only a gain of 6K, which happened in most of country. Though for KC, the MO side still did pretty well, it's the KS side that ended up losing actual employment by end of year. Somehow KS side lost all of its gains through last year (if the data is directionally correct).

The job growth is there, just look at jobs on simplyhired.com. The problem is that some companies are still letting go jobs in one dept while hiring in another.. others are having trouble filling open jobs. Some may be because of retired leaving workforce but I'd be surprised if more than 10% of job postings.

[aknowledgeableperson]

Guess one can take whatever from the following:

The Huffington Post | By Jillian Berman
Posted: 01/28/2014 11:08 pm EST | Updated: 01/28/2014 11:59 pm EST

"That's because a large part of the most recent decline in December was the result of 347,000 people giving up the search for work entirely and dropping out of the labor force. Such a decision helps the unemployment rate look better on paper, since it pushes those people out of the unemployment picture altogether. But in reality, it is not a great sign for the millions struggling to find work.
...
Some of the drop in the labor force participation rate has to do with Baby Boomers retiring, but it doesn't explain the entire drop.

Some of the decline, however, can be explained by the share of young people working or looking for work dropping to an all-time low of 54 percent in August 2012, according to a December 2013 paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Old-fashioned job creation does account for some of the drop in the unemployment rate, but many of those jobs aren't great. In fact, 75 percent of the jobs created roughly midway through 2013 were part-time, and half of the jobs created in the past three years have been of the low-wage variety."

[earthling]

This is a few months old... says KC is 5th in adding % of high paying jobs. DC, Seattle, Boston, Baltimore, KC...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/emsi/2013/1 ... rkers-too/

[earthling]

KC has more job openings than I've seen for this time of year yet the employment level in Jan/Feb were flat compared to last year. The unemployment increased but that can happen for January as seasonal Dec jobs go away. On other topics about retired boomers leaving faster than others to replace them, it seems to be happening in KC.

Instead of graphs I'll summarize. Pro Services employment still increasing but Financial decreasing. Construction employment took big hit but the major projects announced haven't really kicked into gear yet. Leisure/hospitality employment usually falls first of year but it's lower than last year in same period.

KC job growth in terms of openings is great but filling the jobs with the right people seems to be a problem lately.

http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm

Careerbuilder still shows KC has more openings than cities larger than KC and more than April last year...
http://www.careerbuilder.com/jobseeker/ ... t_control2

Simplyhired shows more job postlngs than April last year and more than some larger markets...
http://www.simplyhired.com/a/jobs/list/ ... s+City,+MO

[aknowledgeableperson]

The problem of job seekers not having the skills to fill the job postings is a national problem. Was discussed on CNBC this morning and it has been the topic at other places as well.

[grovester]

How do we know this is really you?

[aknowledgeableperson]

Is that really you?

[earthling]

The Feds are claiming KC metro unemployment rate is only 4.8% (latest data is from October), which doesn't mean much for many reasons including labor force constantly fluctuating but what is more clear is that the unemployed people number is about 50K, which is slightly better than 2007 before economy bombed and about at level of 2002/3. Considering KC metro is larger than early 2000s, 50K unemployed is proportionally better than then. What's also not really known is how many are 'underemployed'.

KC's job growth has been below national avg last several months yet the unemployment rate is better than national avg. So it probably means KC has less catching up to do.



http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm

[earthling]

Home values going up for the most part. There's only a 4.5 month supply of homes in metro KC, which is bad news for buyers but good new for sellers and developers, although there is a 6.9 month supply of newly built homes. A balanced market is considered around 5-6 month supply. This seems to mean people new to KC are going for existing homes rather than newly built, which cuts down on sprawl.

http://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/n ... ge-up.html

[aknowledgeableperson]

Home values going up for the most part.

Out here is Raymore values are going up and spec new home construction is rather strong, especially by one builder. However, values in South KC seem to be lagging behind the growth.

[earthling]

The MO side of KC metro is now carrying the weight of the job growth, 10X higher than KS side. MO side has been gaining slightly more through most of the year but has picked up pace over last few months.

KS side of KC metro under 1K growth in last year...


MO side of KC metro shows about 10K growth in last year...


Even worse for State of KS...
http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/opn-c ... 68108.html

[flyingember]

Looks like the MO side still has 55% of the jobs

I would love to see the average pay of these jobs by state
Especially intrigued to see if jobs that take public assistance pay as well as those that don't.